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Decision Evaluation of Response Strategies in Emergency Management Using Imprecise Assessments
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media. (RDALAB)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0310-0018
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media. (RDALAB)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0665-1889
Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet. (RDALAB)
2010 (English)In: Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, ISSN 1547-7355, Vol. 7, no 1Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper focuses on the decision evaluation of different response strategies in emergency management utilizing decision analysis with imprecise information. A method for the selection of response strategies in emergency management, as well as a model for the representation of catastrophic consequences, are proposed. In emergency management decision problems, the available estimates of probabilities, utilities, costs, and priority weights are often subject to large degrees of uncertainty and imprecision. When uncertainty prevails in the input data and large societal values are at stake, coping with this lack of precision becomes very important in decision making processes. The method employs representation of imprecision in probabilities, utilities, and weights on attributes in the form of interval statements and comparisons together with a formal, comprehensive, and comprehensible description of a catastrophic consequence facilitating the use of preferential statements between catastrophic consequences. The method proposed can be viewed as a more frugal decision analysis method, decreasing the efforts needed in elicitation of input statements which often is a cumbersome threshold for the use of decision analysis techniques. It is suggested as a complement to cost/benefit approaches and other approaches relying on inaccessible probabilistic data either when probability assessments regarding catastrophic events are too uncertain or when pure monetary scales are deemed inadequate.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berkeley Electronic Press , 2010. Vol. 7, no 1
Keywords [en]
emergency management, decision analysis, imprecision, uncertainty
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-11947DOI: 10.2202/1547-7355.1646OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-11947DiVA, id: diva2:346658
Projects
STCAvailable from: 2010-09-02 Created: 2010-09-02 Last updated: 2025-09-25Bibliographically approved

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Publisher's full texthttp://www.bepress.com/jhsem/vol7/iss1/53/

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Larsson, AronEkenberg, Love

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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