Mid Sweden University

The aim of this chapter is to clarify the various reasons behind the apparent lack of action from the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), in response to Russian aggression toward Ukraine in 2014, and put it in context from the post-2022 invasion perspective. An examination of the Crimea conflict, which erupted in March 2014, underscores the deficiencies in the EU’s approach to conflict resolution via the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), as well as the ineffectiveness of its strategies. This conflict has jeopardized the EU’s credibility in its dealings with Ukraine and Russian influence. Initially, the EU was optimistic that a suitable diplomatic strategy would be crucial for collaborating with Russia to address the crisis in Ukraine. However, following the escalation of the conflict in Crimea and its annexation by Russia, the EU has recognized Russia’s unwillingness to compromise on its geostrategic interests. Consequently, the crisis in Crimea clearly demonstrates the need to address the ENP’s security failings and to prioritize the security aspect of the ENP. Conflict resolution should be paramount, paving the way for the Europeanization and economic transformation of the Eastern Partnership countries. Concerning the Eastern Partnership area, which is particularly influenced by Russia, the ENP’s security aspect requires careful development to prevent the Crimea crisis from leading to additional conflicts within the ENP region beyond the current war. Partner countries need the EU’s support and expertise in this domain.

Regarding the initial Minsk accords from 2014, their limited effectiveness was apparent from the outset, with little chance of success. Their failure also impacted the OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe), which played a crucial role in the final agreement (Moorcraft, Putin’s wars – NATO’s flaws. Why Russia invaded Ukriane. Pen & Sword, 2023, p. 26). Many aspects of the agreement never came to fruition. One significant issue for the failure was Russia’s refusal to fully acknowledge its role in the conflict, maintaining deniability of its hybrid warfare tactics against Ukraine and EU-NATO members. Given the escalation in Crimea and its annexation by Russia, the EU now firmly believes in the necessity to confront the ENP’s security vulnerabilities and consider its security dimension more seriously. Conflict resolution must be a priority, leading to the Europeanization and economic transformation of the Eastern Partnership countries. With Russia’s significant influence in the Eastern Partnership region, the ENP’s security aspect must be meticulously developed to ensure the Crimea crisis does not trigger further conflicts within the ENP area. Support and expertise from the EU are essential for partner countries. In the case of Ukraine, the support has increased post-2022, but it is still very tentative.