Mid Sweden University

An analysis of energy and material flows has been elaborated for the Swedish region Jämtland with the aim of monitoring and comparing regional sustainability by following the work energy flow method developed in a study of the Danish island of Samsø (Nielsen & Jørgensen, 2011). In the region of Jämtland about 46,000 TJ of energy flows into society, of which 88% is renewable. From this an amount corresponding to 30,800 TJ is exported as electricity from the region, while another 410 TJ is exported as waste to be incinerated. The remaining part, about 15,200 TJ (63% renewable), drives Jämtland. From an energy flow perspective, the most important production from the region, apart from electricity production, is biomass from the forest: 49,000 TJ estimated as energy content in the biomass harvested. Another 55,000 TJ is added to the standing biomass every year as forest growth (only productive forest land area has been calculated). Some suggested indices of sustainability have been calculated and Jämtland shows high values. However, it will be a challenge to transform the quite large transport sector of Jämtland, and therefore the potential to become fully sustainable (ref to indexes used for the Samsø study) might not be quite as high. In order to reduce the use of non-renewable energy, a major conversion of the transport fleet is needed, and this should be given high priority. The private sector is the largest single user of non-renewable energy (2,200 TJ). One successful transition is the Swedish diesel mix with 19% FAME/HVO derived from vegetable or animal sources and regarded as renewable. The consumption of FAME/HVO is predicted to increase significantly, increasing the importance of the forest as a source. A sustainability analysis based at work energy flows shows for both Samsø and Jämtland that large natural resources producing a high work energy output combined with low work energy use due to low population density, gives high sustainability indicators. This indicates that regions with high population density and the absence of natural resources (high import), as in most regions in the world, will show low sustainability indicators. 

This study presents a regional model showing the balance of carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in the Swedish county Jämtland, applying a Global Warming Potential 20-year time horizon (GWP20) to meet the Paris agreement horizon and regional policy goals. The results clearly show the necessity to take both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic emissions into consideration in analyses to be able to make proper priorities in future action strategies. The total annual impact from Jämtland calculated as carbon dioxide equivalents (CO_2eq) is an uptake of 2.4 Mton (19 ton per capita). Jämtland shows large annual uptakes in forests (12.7 Mton CO₂), but also large emissions of methane (80 kton corresponding to 6.7 Mton CO_2eq), mainly from lakes, mires and ruminants. Anthropogenic carbon Greenhous gas emissions are dominated by transportation, working machines and consumption (mainly imported indirect emissions).

As a complement to GWP also the Absolute Global Temperature Change Potential (AGTP) as degree K response, is presented per sector and total for Jämtland County, for yearly emissions (as a pulse) and continuous emissions over 200 years. A yearly pulse from Jämtland gives a temperature response of about 0 K after 10 years and about −4 μK (cooling effect) after about 50 years). Using both GWP and AGTP as indicators improves the possibilities to find ways how to optimize regional climate policies to reduce global warming until a specific year.

Strategies and action plans should be developed focusing on the following:

- Reduced regional transportation and consumption activity.

- Increased (prioritized) use of renewable fuels for working machines in forestry and agriculture, as well as for heavy trucks.

- Evaluate the potential to reduce emissions of methane from wetlands and mires.

- Increase/optimize carbon dioxide assimilation in forests.

The 1,5°C target for global warming calls for evaluating short-term (30-50 years) climate change mitigation with different forests usage. In the current scientific literature and in the public debate, there are contrasting views on how forests should be managed to maximize total climate benefit, including the use of products and changes in carbon pools. Three major factors influence the conclusions in different studies: (1) time horizon, (2) site productivity, (3) substitution calculations. Here we show the dependency among these factors by an analysis of four harvest scenarios: 95%, 60%, 40% and 0% of growth, which are compared to a business as usual scenario (80%). The analyses are made for five counties in Sweden, which covers a wide range in forest productivities, from 2.5 m3ha-1yr-1 (north) to 11.5 m3ha-1yr-1 (south).The results show:1. Reduced harvest levels provide increased climate benefits on short time scales (at least 50 years).2. Increased harvesting from current level is counterproductive on both short and long term.3. The potential effect on the carbon balance of a no-harvest scenario in the five counties, is larger (1,1-16 times) than the expected emissions from all other anthropogenic activities until 2045.4. Short-term climate benefits of reduced harvesting are largest in highly productive forests. Smaller but more long-lasting benefits can be obtained by aiming at harvest reductions in less productive forests.5. Strategies focused on short-term benefits need to be adapted to the future development of substitution factors and forest growth. If substitution effects become higher, increased harvest levels will be beneficial after 2050 in high productive forests. However, if future substitution effects decrease, which is a plausible and desired development, low harvest strategies are preferred in both short- and long-term time perspectives.We conclude that even moderate reductions of harvest levels would provide substantial climate benefits.

The science-based targets in the Paris Agreement (UN, 2015) aim to reduce global warming according to established model calculations. These targets have been broken down to national levels, and in Sweden further down to regional levels, where county administrators work out specific climate strategies. These constitute governing documents for different stakeholders in the county, e.g. municipalities, companies, organizations. An overarching goal for these stakeholders is to optimize the use of economic resources to meet the stated needs.

To understand the status of today’s climate mitigation work in Sweden, we have mapped the process from the Paris Agreement, down to the level of implementation at municipal level. Sweden has prioritized the strategy to become one of the world´s first fossil-fuel free nations, which implements a short-term risk referring to the urgent need to reduce global temperature effects.  

During the five years that have passed since the Swedish ratification of the Paris Agreement, policy objectives have been set in all Swedish counties. Multi-level climate governance (MLCG) is applied to meet these objectives. Working with MLCG and put trust in soft implementation tools is, however, a slow process that relies on a polycentric techno-optimistic view and volunteering to deal with the challenges. Municipalities with weaker economy seemingly prefer not to define targets for reductions of GHG, so as to be able to focus their resources at mandatory obligations, where climate mitigation is not included.