Mittuniversitetet

This thesis investigates the growing phenomenon of vanishing centrist politics in societies experiencing increased polarization. This thesis seeks to analyse and understand moderation of political parties and electorates in Europe. The research employs two linear regression models based on data from the Eurobarometer and Chapel Hill Expert Survey, to examine which factors influence political moderation.

This thesis finds that electoral support is associated with more extreme ideological positions. Parties with higher past vote shares often solidify their base by adopting more pronounced positions rather than moderating their views. The analysis further examines the role of social and cultural values in shaping party ideologies, finding that parties emphasizing these values tend to adopt more extreme stances. Economic beliefs also significantly influence political positioning, with parties maintaining strong economic views becoming more ideologically extreme. Future expectations play a crucial role, with optimistic left-leaning and pessimistic right-leaning voters showing a tendency towards moderation, while contrasting outlooks may lead to more extreme positions. The study also explores how opinions on the country’s economy affect political orientation, noting that negative economic perceptions generally push individuals towards more extreme ideologies, whereas positive views can sometimes encourage moderation. Perceptions of the country's direction exhibit a paradoxical effect, with positive views leaning towards right-leaning ideologies that emphasize stability, and negative views leading to left-leaning ideologies advocating for significant reforms.