Mittuniversitetet

In this thesis, we will examine how the Russian Federation will be affected by the imposed sanctions in the year 2022. There will be considered five key variables, such as inflation, GDP, interest rates, unemployment rates and average monthly wages, in order to answer this question. For analyzing the Russian economy before and after the sanctions, a monthly time series data set from 2018 to 2022 was collected. Then, the data analyzed with a linear regression model, correlation model, and t-test. As a way of analyzing the future path of the Russian economy in the event that no new sanctions are imposed between the periods of 2022 and 2025, the Box Jenkins criteria were applied in order to intercept an ARMA model to forecast during the periods of 2022 and 2025. As a result of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, the country's economy has been severely affected. Although the war is still ongoing, there is no doubt that the aim of these sanctions was to slow down and hurt the Russian economy as a warning, as well as to stop the war from continuing. A part of the goal has already been achieved, as the result of this study showed that Russia's economy has suffered negatively due to the war and consequently the sanctions.