Mid Sweden University

High conservation value (HCV) areas include natural habitats with high ecological, biological, social or cultural values. Using spatial analysis and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to identify HCV areas is more cost-efficient and less time-consuming than conducting field surveys. GIS-based approaches can also enable the identification of HCV areas in heterogeneous landscapes where, for example, HCV forests are scattered in a production landscape. This study explores the use of density analysis—computing the proportion of HCV-forest cells in the neighborhood of each grid cell in a landscape—to delineate HCV forest areas in the county of Norrbotten, Sweden (99,000 km2). First, multiple official spatial datasets were used to identify the existence of HCV forest with a resolution of 10 m. Second, the share of HCV forest in relation to total forest area (i.e., HCV-forest density) within moving windows of varying sizes around each 10 m cell in the county was calculated. Finally, HCV areas were delineated using different HCV-forest density thresholds. Stakeholders were involved at every step. Results are highly dependent on both the size of the moving window and the density threshold. Using a smaller search window results in greater precision and smaller HCV areas, while a larger search window identifies larger areas but fails to identify small or irregularly shaped HCV areas. Similarly, a low density threshold can be used to identify small and irregularly shaped HCV areas but includes more non-HCV land. The opposite can be observed for a large density threshold. The use of density analysis for the purpose of delineating HCV areas in mixed forest landscapes can be effective for rationalizing the inventory of HCV areas, but method selection is critical and manual evaluation and adjustments are necessary. The potential for further method development, considering other relevant aspects, for example, ecological connectivity, is notable.

Aims/hypothesis: Type 1 diabetes develops gradually, and previous exposures may influence incidence. We aimed to assess the geographical variation in type 1 diabetes incidence in Sweden by considering all residential locations from birth to diagnosis in individuals aged 0–30 years, diagnosed between 2005 and 2022. Significant high- and low-risk clusters were identified for different life stage exposure windows. Methods: In 21,774 individuals with type 1 diabetes, all residential geographical locations from birth to diagnosis were geocoded. Geostatistical analysis of the incidence of type 1 diabetes was conducted at the municipality level using the most common residential location during four life stage-specific exposure windows (at diagnosis, the first 5 years after birth, 5 years prior to diagnosis, and from birth to diagnosis). Spatial scan statistics were used to identify statistically significant high- and low-risk clusters for each window. Land use and land cover within these clusters were also characterised. Results: Significant geographical variation in the incidence of type 1 diabetes was observed. The incidence was consistently higher in rural, low-population-density areas, particularly in central Sweden, and lower in major urban areas. The largest number of spatial clusters of both high risk (RR 1.29–16.0) and low risk (RR 0.32–0.73) was identified when using the most common residential location during the first 5 years after birth. High-risk clusters for this exposure window were characterised by forested and agricultural land, while low-risk clusters were characterised by urban land and open land other than agricultural land. Conclusions/interpretation: Our findings suggest that the development of type 1 diabetes in Sweden varies geographically and is associated with specific features of the local surroundings in early childhood. This is important knowledge as a basis for identifying possible environmental risk factors and the relationship with risk of type 1 diabetes in future studies.

Habitat fragmentation, driven by forestry and land-use changes, threatens biodiversity in boreal Sweden. While most forests in this region are heavily managed, historical forestry intensity varies geographically, with more intact old-growth forests remaining in mountain regions. Saproxylic polypores and epiphytic lichens, reliant on deadwood and old trees, are particularly sensitive to these changes. We surveyed 26 woodland key habitats in boreal Sweden, analysing total and red-listed species of wood fungi and epiphytic lichens, including functional traits relevant to fragmentation sensitivity. Landscape structure was assessed at three spatial scales (0.5, 5, 15 km), capturing habitat amount, quality, and geographic gradients reflecting historical forestry. Local environmental conditions were also evaluated. Local-scale factors were the strongest drivers of species richness: deadwood volume was critical for fungi, while tree age and stand size were key drivers for lichens. Landscape level effects were less pronounced. Total polypore richness and several of the fungal functional groups responded to landscape structure at either immediate (0–5 km) or broader (5–15 km) scales, while lichen richness was not affected by the measured landscape parameters. Both polypore and lichen communities reflected influence from past forestry and current stand structure. These findings underscore that expanding forest area alone is insufficient unless structural complexity and deadwood availability improves. Conservation efforts should prioritize preserving and restoring mature forest patches to sustain fungal and lichen diversity in managed boreal landscapes.

Forestry in boreal Sweden has significantly altered the landscape and reduced old-growth forests, promoting growth of younger, managed stands. Saproxylic polypores are in direct competition with forestry for resources and have declined significantly in diversity. These fungi play a crucial role in decomposing deadwood with their persistence reliant on habitat quality, connectivity, and continuous wood availability. We examined how log, stand, and landscape-level factors affect saproxylic polypore richness and community composition in 26 woodland key habitats (WKHs) in southern boreal Sweden. We recorded polypore fruitbodies on 1263 Picea abies deadwood units and assessed stand structure. GIS was used to quantify spruce forest amount and quality at 0.5, 5, and 15 km scales, including connections to larger high-quality habitats. Local-scale factors, especially deadwood volume and decay stage, strongly influenced fungal richness. Landscape effects were weaker, likely due to the homogenous and degraded surrounding forest matrix. However, polypore richness increased with high-quality forest cover at the 15 km scale, while medium-quality forest at 5 km had a negative effect. Red-listed species richness showed a strong eastward gradient, possibly reflecting historical forestry and extinction debt. Community composition patterns aligned with these trends, with further indirect effects from nearby forest amount and quality. We conclude that the landscape configuration matters but is context dependant. In our heavily managed study region, high-quality patches like WKHs are too isolated, leaving local conditions as the primary driver of fungal persistence. Effective conservation requires integrating landscape-scale measures, including identifying and protecting remaining forests with high natural values. 

The complexity and interconnected nature of environmental, climate, and socioeconomic problems require new strategies based on holistic perspectives. Biomass production, to provide bioenergy and bioproducts, is such an example. One primary aim of the increased production and utilization of bioenergy is to replace fossil fuels and mitigate climate change. But the increased production of biomass can also lead to other, both positive and negative, environmental effects, due to land-use changes in forestry and agriculture. It is essential to avoid negative environmental effects from increased biomass production using unsustainable systems. This can be done by implementing rules and guidelines through legislation, such as the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) (EC, 2023), and voluntary certification systems, such as the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC, 2024).

Estimates of theoretical climate change mitigation potentials in agriculture need to be complemented with investigations of factors that influence deployment. This study introduces a framework for landscape-level assessment of climate change mitigation in agriculture that accounts for existing land uses, soil carbon stocks, and farmers’ preferences concerning specific mitigation options. The framework is used in an assessment of the deployment potentials for selected mitigation options in an agricultural landscape in Sweden, in which arable land covers approximately one-third of the land area. Three options were found to be preferable by farmers: biochar as soil amendment, cover crops, and (an increased) cultivation of ley crops in crop rotations. Cultivation of cover crops and leys was found to increase SOC stocks by 1.9 and 1.6 MgC ha−1 over three decades, respectively. About 10.2 MgC ha−1 is sequestered in soils over three decades when biochar is added as a soil amendment, if 50% of available residues are collected and utilized. This can be compared with GHG emissions from agriculture from the studied area, estimated at 1.6 Mg CO2-eq ha−1 yr−1 (GWP100). The framework was found useful for assessing mitigation options in the agriculture sector, underlining farmer involvement to identify actionable strategies.

Länsstyrelsen i Norrbottens län har samarbetat med Mittuniversitetet för att försöka få en tydligare bild av var skogar med höga naturvärden finns kvar i Norrbottens län och hur dessa är sammankopplade, det vill säga hur den ekologiska konnektiviteten ser ut. Vi har även tittat på konnektiviteten mellan våtmarker med höga naturvärden och ingen eller låg påverkan på hydrologin, enligt våtmarksinventeringen (VMI).

Arbetet är en del av Länsstyrelsen i Norrbottens arbete med Grön infrastruktur och ett underlag för framtida arbete med bevarande, restaurering och även uppföljning av förändringar i landskapet.

För att få en tydligare bild av sambanden har vi använt oss av befintligt underlag och befintliga metoder. I arbetet har det ingått en hel del metodutveckling då befintliga metoder inte varit möjliga att använda rakt av.

De metoder som använts är:

1. en täthetsanalys som visar var det finns områden som till stor del utgörs av skogar med höga naturvärden
2. en konnektivitetsanalys som visar vilken väg som det är mest troligt att en fiktiv art som föredrar naturskogar och skyr fysiska ingrepp helst skulle välja för att röra sig genom landskapet.
3. en konnektivitetsanalys som speglar förutsättningarna för en fiktiv art att röra sig mellan våtmarker med höga naturvärden och ingen eller låg påverkan på hydrologin. När den fiktiva arten rör sig söker den liknande livsmiljöer och markfuktighet samt skyr fysisk påverkan.

Resultaten av täthetsanalysen av skog visar att det fortfarande finns kvar tätheter av skogar med kända höga naturvärden längs hela fjällkedjan. De når som närmast kusten vid Granlandets naturreservat i de centrala delarna av länet. Inkluderas kontinuitetsskogar så faller fler tätheter ut. Här finns dock en osäkerhet kring skogarnas naturvärde, eftersom kontinuitetsskogar utanför kända värdekärnor enbart är flygbildstolkade.

Arter som är beroende av skogar med höga naturvärden behöver inte bara tillgång på habitat, alltså en tillräcklig täthet av livsmiljöer. De behöver även förutsättningar att röra sig mellan dessa, en tillräckligt stark konnektivitet, för att överleva på lång sikt. Konnektivitetsanalyserna visar troliga rörelsemönster i landskapet. De visar inte var konnektiviteten är högst i länet utan var konnektiviteten är högst inom det närmaste området.

Konnektivitetsanalysen av skog visar vilken väg som det är mest troligt att en fiktiv art som föredrar naturskogar och skyr fysiska ingrepp helst skulle välja för att förflytta sig genom landskapet. Analysen visar att konnektiviteten är påfallande stark i de fjällnära skogsområdena. Det syns även tydliga stråk genom fjälldalar över hela länet. Man kan dessutom tydligt utröna flertalet skyddade områden, till exempel Muddus nationalpark och naturreservaten Reivo och Granlandet, samt hur konnektiviteten ser ut inom dessa områden.

Konnektivitetsanalysen av våtmarker speglar förutsättningarna för en fiktiv art att röra sig mellan våtmarker med höga naturvärden och ingen eller låg påverkan på hydrologin. Den fiktiva arten vill förflytta sig till en liknande miljö och väljer väg utifrån hur det ser ut i närområdet. Den begränsas därför av fysiska ingrepp i landskapet. Även här syns vissa tydliga mönster. Stråk av stark konnektivitet följer hydrologiska flöden över länet, i huvudsak i sydostlig riktning. Ett stort område med stark konnektivitet löper från naturreservatet Torneträsk-Soppero fjällurskog hela vägen till Överkalix. Ett annat stort område löper från söder om Torne träsk hela vägen till naturreservatet Granlandet. Ett tredje område utgörs av naturreservatet Pärlälvens fjällurskog och Udtja naturreservat.

När täthets- och konnektivitetsanalyserna kombineras kan vi få en bättre bild av var i landskapet det finns bättre eller sämre förutsättningar för långsiktig funktionalitet. Vi kan få en bild av vilka stråk som kan vara viktiga mellan skogar och våtmarker med kända värden. Samtidigt bör användaren vara medveten om att analyserna har begränsningar som både beror på underlagen och på metoderna.

Täthetsanalysen av skog är så pass tillförlitlig att den går att använda mer brett som planerings- och kunskapsunderlag av myndigheter och andra aktörer under förutsättning att användaren förstår hur analysen är gjord. I konnektivitetsanalyserna finns däremot för stora begränsningar både i dataunderlagen och metoden för att de ska vara användbara som ett tillförlitligt planeringsunderlag. Dessutom finns det i nuläget inga metoder för att på ett tillförlitligt sätt validera analyserna, vilket innebär att vi inte vet till vilken grad resultaten återspeglar den faktiska konnektiviteten i länet. Analyserna kan däremot utgöra ett bra underlag för den som är väl insatt i metoden och dess begränsningar.

Analyserna är möjliga att uppdatera med nya eller uppdaterade underlag. Det är även möjligt att justera själva metoderna allt eftersom vi får mer kunskap. Redan nu fungerar förmodligen metoden för konnektivitetsanalyserna bra i mer geografiskt begränsade områden där det finns mer detaljerade kartunderlag.

Kartunderlagen som tagits fram i analyserna har publicerats av Mittuniversitetet via Svensk Nationell Datatjänst.

Buildings can play an important role in reducing GHG emissions through increased energy efficiency. The European Commission mandates that all new buildings should be "zero emission buildings" (ZEB), aiming at a zero GHG emission building stock by 2050. The extent to which ZEB can contribute to reduced GHG emissions, however, varies between countries, due to different energy systems. It is also important to consider other environmental effects to avoid that climate benefits come with unintended consequences. Here, we explore the life-cycle environmental performance for a ZEB in a case where electricity and heating are largely fossil-free. The assessment concentrates on i) environmental impact of the use stage in relation to the product stage, ii) the interrelation between different energy sources, with focus on household electricity, and iii) the performance for more impact categories than primary energy use and climate change. While our results generally support the use of ZEBs from an environmental perspective, they also show that the climate benefit in this setting is marginal. However, given that energy systems are connected and energy savings in one place can reduce the demand for fossil energy elsewhere, the climate benefit of ZEBs is likely underestimated. Besides methodological implications for future studies, this indicates that current EU policy is promising, as incentives for implementation of ZEBs are unaffected by domestic effects.

Energy crops are a new player in the traditional agricultural landscape. The present paper analyses the land uses surrounding and the spatial characteristics of the main energy crops in Sweden (willow, poplar, hybrid aspen and reed canary grass) compared to traditional agricultural crops during the period 2006–2018. Spatial metrics (number of shape characterising points, shape index and rectangularity ratio) are calculated for each field, as well as the nearby land uses at varying distances, at radius: 500 m, 1000 m, 2000 m and 5000 m. A total of 1560 energy crop fields are studied in the 2006 dataset and 3416 fields in the 2018 dataset, which are compared to 58,246 fields with cereal crops in 2006 and 131,354 fields in the 2018 dataset. Results show that, despite being established on previous agricultural land, energy crops present a different spatial profile compared to traditional agricultural crops. Field shapes present less complexity than before, and the overall spatial features become more regular with time in both cases of energy crops and cereals, suggesting an increasing trend in cost-efficient agricultural practices and planning. Important differences concerning land use diversity at different scales are found between plantations versus grasses. In general, willow plantations are located in agriculture-dominated areas (> 70% at 500 m, > 50% at 2000 m), whereas reed canary grass is in forest-dominated landscapes (> 30% at 500 m, > 60% at 2000 m); both contribute to diversifying existing land uses although with varying effects. The results of this study are a basis to assess the impacts of energy crops at landscape level and can translate into applications in energy policy and planning.