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  • 51.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Danielson, Mats
    Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Decision Evaluation of Response Strategies in Emergency Management Using Imprecise Assessments2010Ingår i: Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, ISSN 1547-7355, Vol. 7, nr 1Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper focuses on the decision evaluation of different response strategies in emergency management utilizing decision analysis with imprecise information. A method for the selection of response strategies in emergency management, as well as a model for the representation of catastrophic consequences, are proposed. In emergency management decision problems, the available estimates of probabilities, utilities, costs, and priority weights are often subject to large degrees of uncertainty and imprecision. When uncertainty prevails in the input data and large societal values are at stake, coping with this lack of precision becomes very important in decision making processes. The method employs representation of imprecision in probabilities, utilities, and weights on attributes in the form of interval statements and comparisons together with a formal, comprehensive, and comprehensible description of a catastrophic consequence facilitating the use of preferential statements between catastrophic consequences. The method proposed can be viewed as a more frugal decision analysis method, decreasing the efforts needed in elicitation of input statements which often is a cumbersome threshold for the use of decision analysis techniques. It is suggested as a complement to cost/benefit approaches and other approaches relying on inaccessible probabilistic data either when probability assessments regarding catastrophic events are too uncertain or when pure monetary scales are deemed inadequate.

  • 52.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier. Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, KTH, Kista.
    Danielsson, M
    Dept. of Informatics, ESI, Örebro University, Örebro.
    Non-Uniform Belief in Expected Utilities in Interval Decision Analysis2005Ingår i: Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, FLAIRS 2005 - Recent Advances in Artifical Intelligence, AAAI Press, 2005, s. 740-745Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper demonstrates that second-order calculations add information about expected utilities when modeling imprecise information in decision models as intervals and employing the principle of maximizing the expected utility. Furthermore, due to the resulting warp in the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the conservative Gamma-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily conservative and pessimistic as the belief in neighborhoods of points near interval boundaries is significantly lower than in neighborhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed.

  • 53.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Wessel, Åsa
    Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining .
    Bach, Håvard
    Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining .
    A Model for Decision Support in Humanitarian Landmine Clearance ActivitiesManuskript (preprint) (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Land release has typically been undertaken by the employment of demining assets, such as manual mine clearance teams, explosive detection animals and mechanical systems, used either individually or in combination. However, it is all too common that land is subjected to full and expensive clearance without actually locating any explosive hazards or when the evidence for such is very scarce or uncertain. In such instances cost efficiency of mine clearance is extremely poor. Due to this situation, the mine action sector must develop more effective methods and improve the rationality in resource allocation through the release of land through a more extensive use of technical and non-technical survey methods rather than employing demining assets so widerly. This paper address this issue by promoting a structured land release decision process supported by a decision making model for the classification of hazardous areas.

  • 54.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Wessel, Åsa
    Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining.
    Bach, Håvard
    Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining.
    Non-technical Survey: A Model for Evidence-based Assessment2010Ingår i: Journal of ERW and Mine Action, ISSN 2154-1485, Vol. 14, nr 1Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In an ongoing effort to improve the Non-technical Survey, the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining teamed with Stockholm University to create an enhanced version of the Cambodia Mine Action Centre’s Evidence Assessment Model. The aim of the project was to make the existing model more user-friendly and modify the current standards for assessment of mine-affected land. CMAC is testing a revised model to ensure that it meets the needs of their Non-technical Survey teams.

  • 55.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi. Stockholm University, Stockholm.
    Fasth, Tobias
    Stockholm University, Stockholm.
    Wärnhjelm, Mathias
    Swedish Transport Administration, Borlänge.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Stockholm University, Stockholm; International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA Laxenburg Austria.
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholm University, Stockholm; International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA Laxenburg Austria.
    Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool2018Ingår i: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, ISSN 1057-9214, E-ISSN 1099-1360, Vol. 25, nr 3-4, s. 55-66Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper reports upon the deliverables and learnings from a project within decision analysis for participatory planning and policy analysis on the municipal level. The project aimed to develop and utilize an online multicriteria decision analysis tool for evaluations of policy alternatives with respect to municipal commercial development policies, acknowledging the objectives and preferences from various local and national stakeholders. The tool itself relied solely on that the users supplied cardinal ranking statements in the appraisal of alternatives and in the ranking of criteria and the surrounding method has been used in three cases. In each case, several significant insights obtained in the decision-modelling workshops were emphasized by the participants. The better understanding of the general decision situation, preference structures, and possible strategies was highly appreciated. The perception was also that this enabled a better understanding of conflicting issues, even when these were not entirely resolved. 

  • 56.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Firth, Daniel
    City Planning and Traffic Division, City of Stockholm.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Screening and Decision Analysis in City Traffic Planning2011Ingår i: Proceedings of the 1st IEEE Forum on Integrated and Sustainable Transportation Systems, IEEE conference proceedings, 2011, s. 364-369Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a case of utilising a process conforming to multi-criteria decision analysis to support city planning decision making. The perceived value of utilising a decision analysis process in the screening phase, i.e. the initial phase of planning decision making is discussed. In the case it was concluded that the value added lie in the increase of the general understanding of the business, its objectives and environment in order to define strategies. Further, value was added in the increased flexibility and structure offered by the approach enhancing communication about the planning decision.

  • 57.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Modeling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation2015Ingår i: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), Springer, 2015, s. 135-146Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we present a work process with associated operational research modeling and analysis tools for the policy formulation stage of the Lindblom policy cycle process model. The approach exploits the use of causal maps for problem structuring and scenario generation of policy options together with decision analysis for evaluating generated scenarios taking preferences of decision makers and stakeholders into account. The benefits of interest when exploiting this integrated modeling approach is to enable for; (i) problem structuring and facilitating understanding and communication of a complex policy problem, (ii) simulation of policy consequences and identification of a smaller set of policy options from a possible very large set of possible options, and (iii) structured decision evaluation of the generated alternative policy options.

  • 58.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi. Stockholms Universitet.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    Stockholms Universitet.
    Olsson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    van Laere, Joeri
    Högskolan i Skövde.
    Agent Based Simulation of a Payment System for Resilience Assessments2017Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We provide an agent based simulation model of the Swedish payment system. The simulation model is to be used to analyze the consequences of loss of functionality, or disruptions of the payment system for the food and fuel supply chains as well as the bank sector. We propose a gaming simulation approach, using a computer based role playing game, to explore the collaborative responses from the key actors, in order to evoke and facilitate collective resilience.

  • 59.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Representation and Evaluation of Influence Diagrams in a Common Framework for Interval Decision Analysis2006Ingår i: Proceedings of IMECS 2006, 2006, s. 738-743Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper present a method for inclusion of influence diagrams within a common framework for analysing decisions under risk supporting interval-valued user statements. The method of inclusion support both modeling and evaluation, and the evaluation is performed through a conversion of influence diagrams into decision tree frames holding symmetric decision trees. The qualitative and explicit modeling of probabilistic independence cause implicit comparative constraints between variables, constraints which must not be violated in order to obtain correct evaluation results.

  • 60.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Johansson [Idefeldt], Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Danielsson, Mats
    Decision analysis with multiple objectives in a framework for evaluating imprecision2005Ingår i: International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, ISSN 0218-4885, Vol. 13, nr 5, s. 495-509Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a decision tree evaluation method for analyzing multi-attribute decisions under risk, where information is numerically imprecise. The approach extends the use of additive and multiplicative utility functions for supporting evaluation of imprecise statements, relaxing requirements for precise estimates of decision parameters. Information is modeled in convex sets of utility and probability measures restricted by closed intervals. Evaluation is done relative to a set of rules, generalizing the concept of admissibility, computationally handled through optimization of aggregated utility functions. Pros and cons of two approaches, and tradeoffs in selecting a utility function, are discussed.

  • 61.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Johansson, Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Danielson, Mats
    Multi-Attribute Decision Tree Evaluation in Imprecise and Uncertain Domains2004Ingår i: Proceedings of the Seventeenth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, Miami Beach, Florida, USA, Menlo Park: AAAI Press , 2004, s. 850-855Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a decision tree evaluation method integrated with a common framework for analyzing multi-attribute decisions under risk, where information is numerically imprecise. The approach extends the use of additive and multiplicative utility functions for supporting evaluation of imprecise statements, relaxing requirements for precise estimates of decision parameters. Information is modeled in convex sets of utility and probability measures restricted by closed intervals. Evaluation is done relative to a set of rules, generalizing the concept of admissibility, computationally handled through optimization of aggregated utility functions. Pros and cons of two approaches, and tradeoffs in selecting a utility function, are discussed.

  • 62.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Johansson, Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Danielsson, Mats
    Multi Attribute Decision Tree Evaluation in Imprecise and Uncertain Domains2004Ingår i: Proceedings of the Seventeenth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, FLAIRS 2004, May 17-19 2004, Miami Beach, FL, United States, 2004, s. 850-855Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 63.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Postbox 7003, Kista, Sweden .
    Kuznetsova, Alina
    Institute for Information Processing, Leibniz University, Hannover, Germany.
    Caster, Ola
    ciences, Stockholm University, Postbox 7003, Kista, Sweden .
    Ekenberg, Love
    ciences, Stockholm University, Postbox 7003, Kista, Sweden .
    Implementing Second-Order Decision Analysis: Concepts, Algorithms, and Tool2014Ingår i: Advances in Decision Sciences, ISSN 2090-3359, E-ISSN 2090-3367, s. Art. no. 519512-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We present implemented concepts and algorithms for a simulation approach to decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions in a common framework for interval decision analysis. The rationale behind this work is that decision analysis with interval-valued probabilities and utilities may lead to overlapping expected utility intervals yielding difficulties in discriminating between alternatives. By allowing for second-order belief distributions over interval-valued utility and probability statements these difficulties may not only be remedied but will also allow for decision evaluation concepts and techniques providing additional insight into a decision problem. The approach is based upon sets of linear constraints together with generation of random probability distributions and utility values from implicitly stated uniform second-order belief distributions over the polytopes given from the constraints. The result is an interactive method for decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions, complementing earlier methods for decision evaluation with interval-valued probabilities and utilities. The method has been implemented for trial use in a user oriented decision analysis software.

  • 64.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Forum 100, Kista, Sweden.
    Riabacke, Mona
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Danielson, Mats
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Cardinal and rank ordering of criteria — addressing prescription within weight elicitation2015Ingår i: International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making, ISSN 0219-6220, Vol. 14, nr 6, s. 1299-1330Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Weight elicitation methods in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are often cognitively demanding, require too much precision, time and effort. Some of the issues may be remedied by connecting elicitation methods to an inference engine facilitating a quick and easy method for decision-makers to use weaker input statements, yet being able to utilize these statements in a method for decision evaluation. In this paper, we propose a fast and practically useful weight elicitation method, answering to many of the requirements. The method builds on the ideas of rank-order methods, but can also take imprecise cardinal information into account. The method is subsequently employed in two real-life case studies and compared to a case where a simple ratio weight procedure using exact input statements was employed.

  • 65.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. EGovLab, Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden .
    Taylor, S.
    IT Innovation, University of Southampton, United Kingdom.
    Wandhöfer, T.
    GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Germany .
    Koulolias, V.
    EGovLab, Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden .
    Exploiting online data in the policy making process2015Ingår i: CEUR Workshop Proceedings, CEUR-WS , 2015, Vol. 1553Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper reports on the ambitions and methods behind the Sense4us project, aimed to provide ICT tools supporting policy making through systematic gathering of heterogeneous online data to increase problem understanding and the general public's opinions. The tools' goal is to enable stakeholders within the political sphere to identify online available data concerning their policies. © Copyright 2015 for this paper by its authors.

  • 66.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Vickman, Sara
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Decision Evaluation for Damage Evaluation and Prevention Analysis in Bank Operational Risk Management2012Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEE conference proceedings, 2012, s. 1209-1213Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Operational risk is defined as risk concerning the company’s processes, people and systems including both external and internal events. SAFOR (Systemic Approach Framework for Operational Risk) is a novel, holistic, and module based framework approach for the management of operational risk aimed for banks. This framework involves a component for damage evaluation and prevention (the DEEP method) where the utilization of methods from the area of interval decision analysis is proposed as a candidate building block. The DEEP method is a semi-quantitative approach to risk management, including identification of risks, selection of mitigating options, and the follow-up of actions taken. In this paper we assess the DEEP method in the context of SAFOR. The DEEP method relaxes the requirement for knowledge on frequency of risk events and affirms that answers are logically achieved. At the same time, it makes the understanding of how preventive measures are selected a bit exclusive.

  • 67.
    Olausson, Pär M.
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Avdelningen för samhällsvetenskap. Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskap (-2013).
    Björkqvist, Olof
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för kemiteknik. Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för naturvetenskap, teknik och matematik (-2012). Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för teknik, fysik och matematik (-2008).
    Danielsson, Erna
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Avdelningen för samhällsvetenskap. Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskap (-2013).
    Große, Christine
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier (-2013). Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Nyhlén, Jon
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Avdelningen för samhällsvetenskap. Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskap (-2013).
    Wallman Lundåsen, Susanne
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Avdelningen för samhällsvetenskap. Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskap (-2013).
    Från myndighet till medborgare och tillbaka: En studie av samverkan och kommunikation inomramen för STYREL2018Rapport (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [sv]

    STYREL är en planeringsprocess som syftar till att säkra elförsörjningen vid ensituation av elbrist. Att STYREL är en viktig planeringsprocess med stor betydelseför att trygga elförsörjningen till samhällsviktiga elanvändare är en uppfattningsamtliga intervjuade uttrycker. Samtidigt råder det också konsensus kring attprocessen är i behov av utveckling och förändring för att uppnå de syften somligger bakom processen.Empirin för undersökningen har utgjorts av centrala dokument och utredningar,65 intervjuer, deltagande observation samt deltagande vid möten ochnätverksträffar inom ramen för planeringsprocessen. Den kritiska granskningen avprocessen visar att det finns flera förbättringsområden som bör beaktas i syfte atthöja kvaliteten och minska risken för att viktiga samhällsfunktioner blir utan elvid en situation av elbrist. De områden som särskilt lyfts fram i studien handlarom nödvändigheten av att integrera löpande feedback i planeringssystemet, attskapa nätverk på både lokal och regional nivå för att tillförsäkra att intesamhällsviktiga privata aktörer eller aktörer inom det civila samhället faller bort iplaneringen samt att ytterligare tydliggöra de olika stegen och de olika rollerna iplaneringssystemet. I detta arbete går det att finna lösningar som redan beprövatsdels i jämförelse med internationella processer kring kritisk infrastruktur, dels inationella processer inom krishanteringssystemet.

  • 68.
    Olsson, Leif
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Matching of Intermodal Freight Transports Using Optimization in a Decision Support System2012Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEE conference proceedings, 2012, s. 313-317Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We describe the computational methods to be used in a web based transport matching system in order to providing clients alternative transport routes, and a model for support of combined intermodal transports where time, emissions and costs are jointly handled. We use network optimization and a mixed integer linear model together with subsequent results from a feasibility test carried out within a transport corridor ranging from the west coast of Norway to Finland through Sweden. The test indicates that network optimization is a well suited methodology for this type of problem, providing swift solutions for the selected problem which is of a medium size with respect to the network size. Future development will be focused on the extension and implementation of this model in a web-based multi-criteria decision support system, able to handle conflicts between cost, time, and emissions in the recommendation of admissible transport solutions.

  • 69.
    Riabacke, A.
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Forum 100, Kista, Sweden .
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Forum 100, Kista, Sweden .
    Danielson, M.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Forum 100, Kista, Sweden .
    Business intelligence in relation to other information systems2014Ingår i: 2014 14th International Conference on Advances in ICT for Emerging Regions, ICTer 2014 - Conference Proceedings, IEEE conference proceedings, 2014, s. 103-108Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Business intelligence (BI) systems are one of the major computing trends during the last ten years, in developed as well as developing countries. However, as often witnessed, the implementations are to a large extent not very successful. Our concern in this paper is the decision support role of BI systems, the perceived business value of implemented systems, and their contribution to facilitate the fulfilment of organisational goals. The study builds upon deep interviews with managers in combination with a previous quantitative survey. The survey and the interviews used three categories of questions: 1) how visions, objectives, strategies are supported by BI systems; 2) how business values are derived from such systems; and 3) how design and implementation issues affect the solutions. The overall conclusion of the study is that there are major problems in all three areas although not equally dire. What clearly emerges is that much of the problems encountered come from failing to appreciate the different nature of BI systems compared to support systems for daily operational processes. Thus, a fundamental reason for BI projects not succeeding entirely is that they are being wrongfully treated as just another kind of traditional information systems.

  • 70.
    Riabacke, Ari
    et al.
    Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Danielson, Mats
    Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Business Intelligence as Decision Support in Business Processes: An Empirical Investigation2011Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Information Management and Evaluation / [ed] Kenneth Granth, Reading: Academic Publishing International, 2011, s. 384-392Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Our concern in this paper is the role of business intelligence systems and the perceived business value of implemented systems and their contribution to facilitate the fulfilment of organizational goals. The study builds upon a survey answered by 43 respondents from different large companies in Scandinavia. The survey used questions on how visions, objectives, strategies are supported by BI systems, on how business values are derived from such systems, and on how design and implementation issues affect the solutions. The overall conclusion of the study is that there are markedly different levels of problems in the areas, most problems being found in integration of BI information and decision processes, and that there is room for large improvements and further work within everything from implementation to requirements engineering for business intelligence decision support systems.

  • 71.
    Riabacke, Ari
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Danielson, Mats
    Conceptualissation of the Gap between Managerial Decision Making and the Use of Decision analytical ToolsManuskript (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 72.
    Riabacke, Ari
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Påhlman, M
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    A study about different strategies in risk elicitation2006Ingår i: Proceedings of IMECS 2006, 2006, s. 1-6Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a study focussing on deviations from normative behavior in risk elicitation. Such deviations have implications on the process of eliciting reliable input data in applications of decision analysis. No existing elicitation method seems to be universally useful based on the findings made in this study. Since people obviously do not act in accordance with the normative rules, and different choice strategies have been identified, a prescriptive approach with individual assistance of the decision makers in the elicitation process thus seems to be necessary.

  • 73.
    Riabacke, Ari
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Påhlman, M
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    How different Choice Strategies Can Affect the Risk Elicitation Process2006Ingår i: IAENG International Journal of Computer Science, ISSN 1819-656X, E-ISSN 1819-9224, Vol. 32, nr 4, s. 460-465Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a study focusing on deviations from normative behavior in risk elicitation. Such deviations haveimplications on the process of eliciting reliable input data in applications of decision analysis. No existing elicitation method seems to be universally useful based on the findings made in this study. Since people obviously do not act in accordance with the normative rules, and different choice strategies have been identified, a prescriptive approach with individual assistance of the decision makers in the elicitation process thus seems to benecessary.

  • 74.
    Riabacke, Mona
    et al.
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Bohman, Samuel
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Danielson, Mats
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Faye, Waly
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Public Decision MakingSupport: A Developing Country Perspective2010Ingår i: Proceedings of IST-Africa 2010, IEEE conference proceedings, 2010, s. 5753063-Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The aim of this paper is to discuss a method for public decision making with decision support in developing countries in Africa. It integrates two academic fields: decision theory and computer-aided decision support on the one hand, and political science and e-democracy on the other. The method suggested deals with the problem of communication within the governmental body, as well as externally to the public. It supports decision making by a methodical stepwise procedure, formal modelling, and analysis. The result is a well-organized and transparent decision making process. The model is based on previous research and case studies in Sweden and Hungary. One major challenge is to develop a decision support adapted to local conditions and needs while preserving integrity of the method. Potential benefits range from better investment decisions, improved risk management, to increased transparency and governmental trust

  • 75.
    Riabacke, Mona
    et al.
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Danielson, Mats
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    A Prescriptive Approach for Eliciting Imprecise Weight Statements in an MCDA Process2009Ingår i: Lecture Notes in Computer Science Volume 5783, Berlin / Heidelberg: Springer, 2009, s. 168-179Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this article, we discuss decision making involving multiple objectives (MCDA) and especially the lack of more prescriptively useful elicitation methods for weights within MCDA. We highlight the discrepancy between how elicitation is handled in current decision analysis applications and the abilities of real decision-makers to provide what is required from them. Based on theory and highlighted problems with current methods, we propose a novel approach for weight elicitation which relaxes the need for numeric preciseness from decision-makers and reduces some of the practical issues related to such processes. The method is tested in a comparative study, as well as employed in a real-life case study.

  • 76.
    Riabacke, Mona
    et al.
    Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Danielson, Mats
    Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Employing Cardinal Rank Ordering of Criteria in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis2012Ingår i: Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making: Proceedings of the 10th International FLINS Conference / [ed] Kahraman, C., Kerre, E. E., Tunc Bozbura, F., World Scientific, 2012, Vol. 7, s. 76-82Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The elicitation of preference information in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) processes and the lack of practical means supporting it is a significant problem in real-life applications of MCDA. The issues at hand are problematical in a multitude of ways, but some of these issues may be remedied by accepting weaker input statements from decision-makers than what is most commonly needed, yet being able to utilize these statements for decision evaluation. In this paper, we propose a fast and practically useful weight elicitation method, which builds on the ideas of rank-order methods, but in addition take imprecise cardinal information into account.

  • 77.
    Sundberg, Leif
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    The Impact of Formal Decision Processes on e-Government Projects2017Ingår i: Administrative Sciences, ISSN 2076-3387, E-ISSN 2076-3387, Vol. 7, nr 2, artikel-id UNSP 14Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper studies associations between the use of formal decision-making processes in e-Government projects and the outcomes of these projects. By doing so, this study contributes to the decision sciences as well as to the fields of e-Government, information systems and public administration. Data were collected using a survey conducted among Swedish national government agencies and municipalities. Variables that have been investigated are the defining and weighting of objectives, resource allocation and assessment of whether objectives are met, as well as to what extent risk analysis was conducted. The results reveal that successful projects distinguish themselves by involving more activities related to formal decision-making procedures, especially with respect to stakeholder inclusion and weighting of objectives. These initiatives also manage more types of risks, including organizational issues. Future research should continue to explore the possible benefits of formal decision-making and risk analysis in e-Government.

  • 78.
    Sutinen, Martti
    et al.
    Dept. of Engineering Physics and Mathematics, Aalto University.
    Danielson, Mats
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Science, Stockholm University.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Web-Based Analytical Decision Support System2010Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2010 10th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications, ISDA'10, IEEE conference proceedings, 2010, s. 575-579Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a web-application supporting structured decision modelling and analysis. The application allows for decision modelling with respect to different preferences and views, allowing for numerically imprecise and vague background probabilities, values, and criteria weights, which further can be adjusted in an interactive fashion when considering calculated decision outcomes. The web-application is based on a decision tool that has been used in a large number of different domains over the last 15 years, ranging from investment decision analysis for companies to public decision support for local governments.

  • 79.
    Talantsev, Anton
    et al.
    Stockholm University, Stockholm.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    Stockholm University, Stockholm.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Multi-stakeholder preference analysis in ex-ante evaluation of policy options – Use case: Ultra low emission vehicles in UK2016Ingår i: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), 2016, Vol. 9821, s. 176-188Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    While the simulation-based impact assessment of public policy proposals allows policy makers to identify the feasible policy options and verify their economic, social and environmental impacts, it does not provide the explicit evaluation of policy options. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can support an in-depth performance evaluation of policy options taking into account the preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. These preferences reflect acceptable trade-offs of performance among objectives. This study reviews multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) technique and presents a common policy appraisal format using main evaluation criteria linked to a set of measurable, context dependent attributes. We argue for a rank-based approach for eliciting preferences, select a novel method for attribute weight elicitation, and show how it can be integrated within a public policy multi-criteria evaluation framework. A use case for policymaking, ‘Ultra-Low Emission Vehicles (ULEV) Uptake in UK’, is used for demonstration of the proposed approach for policy decision analysis. This approach seeks to couple systems modelling and simulation of policy scenarios with MCDA, stakeholder analysis and preference elicitation. The outputs can further provide analytical insights in controversy/ acceptability of policy options, and consequently guide further policy formulation and the design of better options.

  • 80.
    Talantsev, Anton
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Kivunike, Florence Nameere
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Sundgren, David
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Quantitative Scenario-Based Assessment of Contextual Factors for ICT4D Projects: Design and Implementation in a Web Based Tool2014Ingår i: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing: New Perspectives in Information Systems and Technologies / [ed] Rocha, Á., Correia, A.M., Tan, F.B., Stroetmann, K.A., Springer, 2014, s. 477-490Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The success of a development intervention is primarily defined by its longer-term results. Information and Communication Technology for Development (ICT4D) projects are no exception. In particular, the external context in which such projects are to be deployed plays a crucial role for achieving better development results. Thus, an analysis of contextual factors is essential for decision-makers at the project proposal screening and evaluation. Guided by the results-based management framework, a tool for influence assessment of contextual factors is designed and presented in this paper. The tool comprises a suggested model for common ICT4D contextual factors and a complementing method for their assessment. The method employs a scenario-based judgments elicitation process for data extraction together with Monte-Carlo simulation for data processing and aggregation. While the tool is not intended for comprehensive and deep analysis, the underlying streamlined process along with the easy to interpret assessment results arguably ensure further wide adoption.

  • 81.
    Talantsev, Anton
    et al.
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi. Stockholms Universitet.
    Sundgren, David
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    A new method for context factors analysis in international development project planning2018Ingår i: International Journal of Applied Management Science, ISSN 1755-8913, E-ISSN 1755-8921, Vol. 10, nr 4, s. 290-318Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The long-term success or failure of a development project is largely shaped by the external context. Therefore, assessment of factors influencing fulfilment of long-term development outcomes is vital for better project planning. In recent decades, the logical framework (logframe) has de facto become a standard tool for planning and managing development interventions. While the logframe requires identification of assumptions and risks regarding the external context, it does not suggest ways to analyse them in a conventional risk assessment manner. Also, the log-frame has been criticised for ignoring uncertainty in project environment along with neglecting external opportunities. Therefore, in this paper we suggest a method for project context analysis that extends the log-frame with scenarios analysis and address aforementioned shortcomings. We implement and demonstrate the application of the method on an international aid development project, discuss the method's potential use-cases, specific limitations and future development.

  • 82.
    Truex, Duane
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Olssson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Lindblad-Gidlund, Katarina
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Sefyrin, Johanna
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Nilsson, Olof
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Anderson, Karen
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Borglund, Erik
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Asproth, Viveca
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Position Statement: Sustainable Information and Information Systems (SIIS)2011Ingår i: Governance and Sustainability in Information Systems: Managing the Transfer and Diffusion of ITManaging the Transfer and Diffusion of IT, IFIP / [ed] Karlheinz Kautz, Markus Nüttgens, & Andreas Gadatsch, Hamburg Germany: Springer, 2011, s. 306-309Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this position statement we provide our understanding of the relation between the IS field and the notion of sustainability, and present our focus through a characterization of the “sustainability research” construct. By doing so, we hope to contribute to the discourse on a clarification of the construct itself in our research community.

  • 83.
    van Laere, Joeri
    et al.
    University of Skövde.
    Berggren, Peter
    Linköping University.
    Gustavsson, Per
    Combitech.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    Stockholm University.
    Johansson, Björn
    Linköping University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Lindqwister, Towe
    Combitech.
    Olsson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Wiberg, Christer
    Combitech.
    Challenges for critical infrastructure resilience: cascading effects of payment system disruptions2017Ingår i: Proceedings of the International ISCRAM Conference, ISCRAM, 2017, Vol. 2017-May, s. 281-292Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Critical infrastructures become more and more entangled and rely extensively on information technology. A deeper insight into the relationships between critical infrastructures enables the actors involved to more quickly understand the severity of information technology disruptions and to identify robust cross-functional mitigating actions. This study illustrates how and why disruptions in the payment system in Sweden could create cascading effects in other critical infrastructures with potentially severe consequences for many citizens, government institutions and companies. Data from document studies, interviews and workshops with field experts reveal seven challenges for collective cross-functional critical infrastructure resilience that need to be dealt with: 1)Shortage of food, fuel, cash, medicine; 2) Limited capacity of alternative payment solutions; 3) Cities are more vulnerable than the countryside; 4) Economically vulnerable groups in society are more severely affected; 5)Trust maintenance needs; 6) Crisis communication needs; 7) Fragmentation of responsibility for critical infrastructures across many actors.

  • 84.
    van Laere, Joeri
    et al.
    University of Skövde, Skövde.
    Berggren, Peter
    Linköping University, Linköping.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    Stockholm University, Kista.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Kallin, Susanne
    Combitech AB, Sundbyberg.
    A simulation-game to explore collective critical infrastructure resilience2018Ingår i: Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018, CRC Press/Balkema , 2018, s. 1305-1312Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Resilience of interdependent infrastructures increasingly depends on collaborative responses from actors with diverse backgrounds that may not be familiar with cascade effects into areas beyond their own sector. A simulation-game can enable societal actors to obtain a deeper understanding of the interdependencies between their infrastructures and their respective crisis responses. Following a design science approach, a simulation-game has been developed that combines role-playing simulation and computer simulation. The simulation-game challenges participants to address the interaction between payment disruptions, food and fuel supply, security problems (riots, robberies) and communication challenges (preventing hoarding). A number of crucial design choices were handled while developing the simulation-game. The main design challenges were: How to validate an unthinkable escalation scenario?; How to give the simulation a sufficient level of detail on all aspects and keep the complexity graspable so it can be played instantly?; and How much time should each playing round take?

  • 85.
    van Laere, Joeri
    et al.
    Högskolan i Skövde.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    Stockholms Universitet.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Olsson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Johansson, Björn
    Linköpings Universitet.
    Gustavsson, Per
    Combitech AB, Skövde.
    Analyzing the implications of design choices in existing simulation-games for critical infrastructure resilience2018Ingår i: Simulation Gaming: Applications For Sustainable Cities And Smart Infrastructures, Springer, 2018, Vol. 10825, s. 15-23Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
  • 86.
    Vickman, Sara
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Olsson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Prerequisites for decision aid in socially responsible investment appraisals2012Ingår i: International Journal of Engineering Management and Economics (IJEME), ISSN 1756-5154, E-ISSN 1756-5162, ISSN 1756-5154, Vol. 3, nr 4, s. 359-377Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper explores investment appraisals restrained by various sources of uncertainty and influenced by socially responsible investment (SRI) thinking. Of particular interest in this paper is to assess the additional aspects of investment appraisals that derive from SRI thinking together with the multiple sources of uncertainty arising in such decision problems. We assess characteristics of how managers' try to account for corporate social responsibility, how they cope with evaluating upon objectives beyond monetary return on investment and how they manage uncertainty and the source of the uncertainties they emphasise. We conclude that organisations are generally exposed to and also consider both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. There is a mix of macro and micro variables creating a diversified environment where valuation methods such as real options in combination with decision analysis modelling could help in structuring the problem and provide informed decision making.

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