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  • 1.
    Paschali, Elena
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Ecotechnology and Suistainable Building Engineering.
    Grönlund, Erik
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Ecotechnology and Suistainable Building Engineering.
    Cyprus Sustainability Assessment: Can models help?2019Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Cypriot development is highly dependent on fossil fuel imports for supporting country production levels to meet the local demand.  With the island’s entry in the European Union, a long term strategy for converging the unsustainable development with sustainable development is necessary.  In our attempt to assess Cyprus sustainability, several factors that affect the system have been observed.  The most significant environmental impacts are drought, water pollution, erosion and wildlife preservation. The uneven precipitation levels and absence of natural reservoir catchments have striking effects on soil quality and life. The purity of the water supply is threatened by industrial pollutants, the lack of adequate sewage treatment and pesticides used in agricultural areas. The environmental load becomes a debt in the national liabilities.  Adding to the complexity, the effect of tourism poses more risks on the local communities. Resource availability and resource scarcity are a global concern. How, then, can models help in the assessment of Cyprus sustainability? Integrated assessment models – integrating e.g. geographic information, populations statistics, and environmental load – illustrate the interconnected relationships and limits of the socio-natural system and the biosphere.  For example, the albedo effect in the future under different assumptions can be estimated. Assumptions can be made regarding e.g. Cyprus future population, economic growth and indigenous resource availability.  The general ecologic view on global resource availability is that the Earth is finite.  Models like the “The Limits to Growth”, by Meadows et al. (1972) and “The Pulsing Paradigm” by Odum et al. (1995) represent the striking events of fossil fuel-based societies. Models can also be manipulatied in the quest for a high output/input ratio than in reality.  The ability to use modeling knowledge and facilitate decisions before the implementation stage helps avoiding crisis and system collapse.

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