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  • 1.
    Björkqvist, Olof
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för naturvetenskap, teknik och matematik.
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Risk Assessment of New Pricing Strategies in the District Heating Market: A Case Study at Sundsvall Energi AB2010Ingår i: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 38, nr 5, s. 2171-2178Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The price structure of district heating has been no major scientific issue for the last decades in energy related research. However, today trends in district heating pricing tend to move towards a more customer oriented approach with fixed prices under a longer period, leading to a more complex price structure. If a district heating supplier offers district heating with fixed prices in order to compete with similar electricity offers, the financial risk of the fixed price product is significantly higher than the risk of an ordinary variable cost offer. In contrary to an electricity seller, the district heating company can not transfer all of the risk of fixed prices offer to the financial market, instead the company is thrown upon its own ability to handle the risk by, e.g., hedging its own energy purchase. However, all uncertainties can not be coped with in this manner. Thus, there is a need for a methodology that can be used to estimate the financial risk of different price structures and to value different opportunities to reduce the risk. In this article we propose a methodology, implemented in a prototype software, to evaluate the risk associated with new price structures in district heating.

  • 2. Borking, Kjell
    et al.
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholm university.
    Davies, Guy
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Transcending Business Intelligence2011 (uppl. 1)Bok (Övrig (populärvetenskap, debatt, mm))
    Abstract [en]

    How on Earth did this happen? The question is not infrequent, but more to the point, it?s unnecessary. It arises because in many cases people haven?t thought things through beforehand. Yes, sometimes people can be unlucky, but far from every time that things go awry; bad luck is never so consistent - by definition. Thinking things through properly beforehand might seem a fairly obvious requirement for making a good decision, but startlingly often, even critical decisions are made without any in depth analysis. Well, there may have been some background data lying around somewhere, but not much is done with it. Though it's easy to blame authoritarian leadership or the like, poor decision making is far more usually due to not really knowing what to do with the available information, whether it's sufficient and what else needs to be known There?s nothing weird or idiotic about today?s decision makers, but there often is about the tools and methods available to them. It would be more accurate to say that many decision makers have been lead astray regarding their remit and capacity, but fortunately with structured decision processes they can be guided back on track far more easily than had they been as dim- witted as some of their decisions would indicate.Businesses introduce various BI solutions both timely and untimely, but what most of them don't have is any kind of methodology by which to deal with decisions. With no processes, knowledge, techniques or tools, they soon come to grief. Happily this is fairly easy to remedy.Decision processes and decision methods can be greatly improved. In this book we simply explain how to go about it.

  • 3. Borking, Kjell
    et al.
    Danielson, Mats
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Bortom Business Intelligence2009 (uppl. 1)Bok (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 4. Danielson, M
    et al.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Hansson, K
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Påhlman, M
    Riabacke, Ari
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Sundgren, D
    Cross-Disciplinary Research in Analytic Decision Support Systems2006Ingår i: 28th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces, 2006., 2006, s. 123-128Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    A main problem in decision support contexts is that unguided decision making is difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to delivering decision support from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. A key observation, however, is that effective and efficient decision making is not easily achieved by using methods from one discipline only. This paper describes some efforts made by the DECIDE Research Group to approach DSS development and decision making tools in a cross-disciplinary way.

  • 5.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Dept. of Systems and Computer Science, Stockholm University and KTH.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Dept. of Systems and Computer Science, Stockholm University and KTH.
    Grönlund, Åke
    Dept of Informatics/ESI, Örebro University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Public Decision Support - Using a DSS to Increase Democratic Transparency2005Ingår i: International Journal of Public Information Systems, ISSN 1653-4360, Vol. 1, nr 1, s. 3-25Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a case study in which a decision support method (ADL) was employed by a local government in order to guide and aid decisions on three complicated and politically infected issues which had remained unresolved for many years. The research inquiry was whether a well-defined and openly accessible method would aid a common understanding of the decision problems, and whether people would be able to accept a clearly motivated decision even if politically they preferred a different option. The ADL method has been used in several public sector projects ranging from very large purchasing decisions to the selection of national policies, but this test case was novel in that it involved close inspection by the public. This case was also devised as a test of new methods for potential inclusion into normal practices. The post-case analysis shows mixed understanding of and belief in the method. The results raise issues concerning both the potential for decision support methods in a political context and the nature of political decision making.

  • 6. Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Using a Software Tool for Public Decision Analysis Analysis: the Case of Nacka Municipality2007Ingår i: Decision Analysis, ISSN 1545-8490, Vol. 4(2), s. 76-90Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a case of interval decision analysis using a tool that takes advantage of interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, and is capable of handling comparative relations, i.e. interval statements on differences between variables. These statements are represented as constraints to the solution set and evaluated using a number of different evaluation methods, each serving the decision-maker with different insights of the decision problem. We demonstrate the applicability of the tool in a case study regarding three public infrastructure decision problems which had remained unresolved during a number of years.

  • 7. Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Johansson, Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    The DecideIT Decision Tool2003Ingår i: ISIPTA '03: Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications, Lugano, Switzerland, July 14-17, 2003, Carleton Scientific , 2003, s. 204-217Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The nature of much information available to decision makers is vague and imprecise, be it information for human managers in organisations or for process agents in a distributed computer environment. Several models for handling vague and imprecise information in decision situations have been suggested. In particular, various interval methods have prevailed, i.e. methods based on interval estimates of probabilities and, in some cases, interval utility estimates. Even if these approaches in general are well founded, little has been done to take into consideration the evaluation perspective and, in particular, computational aspects and implementation issues. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a tool for handling imprecise information in decision situations. The tool is an implementation of our earlier research focussing on finding fast algorithms for solving bilinear systems of equations together with a graphical user interface supporting the interpretation of evaluations of imprecise data.

  • 8. Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Distribution of expected utility in decision trees2007Ingår i: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, ISSN 0888-613X, E-ISSN 1873-4731, Vol. 46, nr 2, s. 387-407Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Evaluation of decision trees in which uncertain information is present is complicated. Especially when the tree has some depth, i.e. consists of more than one level, the effects of the choice of representation and evaluation procedures are significant. Second-order representation and evaluation may significantly increase a decisionmaker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. Furthermore, due to the effects on the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the Gamma-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily pessimistic as the belief in neighbourhoods of points near interval boundaries is usually lower than in neighbourhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed. The results in this paper apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order information, such as standard decision trees or probabilistic networks using only first-order concepts, for example upper and lower bounds. Furthermore, the results also apply to other, non-probabilistic weighted trees such as multi-criteria weight trees.

  • 9.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Generalised Risk Constraints in Decision Trees with Second-Order Probabilities2012Ingår i: Advances in Economics, Risk Management, Political and Law Science / [ed] D. Pavelkova, J. Strouhal, M. Pasekova, WSEAS Press , 2012, s. 376-383Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Recently, representations and methods analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically impreciseprobabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expectedutility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  • 10.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Riabacke, Mona
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Structured eDemocracy beyond eDiscussion2009Ingår i: Proceedings of eChallenges 2009, 2009Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a case showing how the use of a transparent decision support model can increase the effectiveness of the preparatory, analysis and negotiation stages of a democratic decision process. The case is of a democratic decision process taking advantage of a transparent decision support model, which may be extended to also include participatory elements in a well-defined manner. The support methods must allow for decision modelling with respect to different preferences and views, which further can be adjusted in an interactive fashion when considering calculated decision outcomes.

  • 11.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Riabacke, Mona
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Transparent Public Decision Making - Discussion and Case Study in Sweden2010Ingår i: e-Democracy: Advances in Group Decision and Negotiation Volume 5 Part 4 / [ed] French, S. and Ríos Insua, D., Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2010, 1, s. 263-281Kapitel i bok, del av antologi (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The Swedish city of Örebro has since long faced complex problems with poor water quality in a local river. This problem is a typical example of a regional decision problem, since there are several different stakeholders that might be affected, and there are different views on the need for, and effect of, different measures. The problems also strongly relate to the environmental condition of the river and involve other municipalities as well. In this chapter, we describe how to address this problem using an implementation of a systematic democratic decision process for enhancing the transparency and the decision quality in itself. The process is in conformity with common democratic processes, but with higher emphasis on accuracy and precision and on the interaction between civil servants and decision makers. A main issue here is to clearly separate the various views involved in these processes from the actual facts and, at the same time, facilitate input from various stakeholders. Therefore, we allow for modelling of outcomes based on different preferences and facilitate an elicitation process where views are extracted and combined with basic data from the background investigations preceding the decision. The process is divided into two stages. The first one is emphasized in this chapter and concerns the internal democracy, i.e. the formulation and refinement of the original and extended decision problems and the interaction between politicians and civil servants, while the second stage deals with the external democracy, i.e. the communication with the public, where communication channels directed towards citizens will be formed.

  • 12.
    Danielson, Mats
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Riabacke, Mona
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Weighting Under Ambiguous Preferences and Imprecise Differences in a Cardinal Rank Ordering Process2013Ingår i: International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems, ISSN 1875-6883, Vol. 7, nr 1, s. 105-112Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The limited amount of good tools for supporting elicitation of preference information in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) causes practical problem. In our experiences, this can be remedied by allowing more relaxed input statements from decision-makers, causing the elicitation process to be less cognitively demanding. Furthermore, it should not be too time consuming and must be able to actually use of the information the decision-maker is able to supply. In this paper, we propose a useful weight elicitation method for MAVT/MAUT decision making, which builds on the ideas of rank-order methods, but increases the precision by adding numerically imprecise cardinal information as well.

  • 13. Danielsson, Mats
    et al.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Johansson [Idefeldt], Jim
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Investment Decision Analysis: a case study at SCA Transforest2003Ingår i: IKE'03: Proceedings of the international conference on infomration and knowledge engineering: Vols. 1 and 2, 2003, s. 79-85Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    In investment decision-making in organizations, large values can be at stake. The need for a structured process is evident, not least when several people or interests are involved in the process. We advocate that the use of modern computational decision analysis can improve such investment processes by improving visibility and only requiring reasonably precise input data. The applicability of a structured decision analysis to corporate decision-making is demonstrated in a case study at SCA Transforest, a subdivision to SCA. The decision problem consists of whether a new system for logistic control should be implemented or not. The background information was collected through interviews and the structuring and analysis of the problem was performed using the tool DecideIT, designed for handling situations where uncertainties in input data prevail. The result of the analysis points out a reasonable action, but also shows which aspects are crucial to consider for a reliable result.

  • 14.
    Dobslaw, Felix
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Kanter, Theo
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Walters, Jamie
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    An Object-Oriented Model in Support of Context-Aware Mobile Applications2010Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Intelligent and context-aware mobile services require usersand applications to share information and utilize services from remotelocations. Thus, context information from the users must be structuredand be accessible to applications running in end-devices. In response tothis challenge, we present a shared object-oriented meta model for a persistentagent environment. The approach enables agents to be contextawarefacilitating the creation of ambient intelligence demonstrated bya sensor-based scenario. The agents are context-aware as agent actionsare based upon sensor information, social information, and the behaviorof co-agents.

  • 15.
    Ekenberg, Love
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Andersson, Mikael
    Dept. of Mathematical Statistics, Stockholm University, Forum 100 SE-164 40 Kista, Sweden.
    Danielsson, Mats
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Forum 100 SE-164 40 Kista, Sweden.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Distributions over Expected Utilities in Decision Analysis2007Ingår i: ISIPTA 2007 - Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, 2007, s. 175-182Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    It is often recognised that in real-life decision situations, classical utility theory puts too strong requirements on the decision-maker. Various interval approaches for decision making have therefore been developed and these have been reasonably successful. However, a problem that sometimes appears in real-life situations is that the result of an evaluation still has an uncertainty about which alternative is to prefer. This is due to expected utility overlaps rendering discrimination more difficult. In this article we discuss how adding second-order information may increase a decision-maker�s understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams.

  • 16.
    Ekenberg, Love
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Danielson, Mats
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Sundgren, David
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Second-Order Risk Constraints in Decision Analysis2014Ingår i: Axioms, ISSN 2075-1680, Vol. 3, nr 1, s. 31-45Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations) have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  • 17.
    Ekenberg, Love
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Danielsson, M
    Dept. of Informatics, ESI, Örebro University, Örebro.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Second Order Effects in Interval Valued Decision Graph Models2005Ingår i: Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, FLAIRS 2005 - Recent Advances in Artifical Intelligence, AAAI Press, 2005, s. 728-733Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    Second-order calculations may significantly increase a decision maker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. The results apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order distributions, instead using only first-order concepts such as upper and lower bounds.

  • 18.
    Ekenberg, Love
    et al.
    Stockholms universitet.
    Fasth, Tobias
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms Universitet.
    Hazards and Quality Control in Humanitarian Demining2018Ingår i: International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, ISSN 0265-671X, E-ISSN 1758-6682, Vol. 35, nr 4, s. 897-913Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the adequacy of International Mine Action Standards 09.20 (IMAS 09.20) and the used standards ISO 2859 in the context of demining. The authors show how the actual quality level acceptable quality limit (AQL) significantly affects the average total quality cost for one lot with a single sampling plan and, consequently, the average total quality cost, and as AQL increases, the cost of rejecting a lot and the cost of sampling increase. The sampling plans for demining are not always optimal given economical and other concerns and that other mechanisms should be considered. Addressing opportunity costs for adopting wide samplings plans instead of clearing uncleared land per default, as well as balancing producer and consumer consequences seems, therefore, to be highly relevant from a socio-economical perspective. The general understanding of quality management and the systems involved are limited within the mine action sector. IMAS and most national mine action standards provide only a fairly narrow description of the issue. This implies that the field is missing opportunities to achieve efficiency and effectiveness, as well as to learn from and improve upon past experiences. The authors demonstrate herein that sampling provides little additional confidence as to whether a particular area is free from explosive hazards and substantial savings can be made compared to the current practice.

  • 19.
    Ekenberg, Love
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Danielson, Mats
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Second-Order Risk Constraints2008Ingår i: Proceedings of the 21th International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, FLAIRS-21, Menlo Park: AAAI Press, 2008, s. 637-642Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper discusses how numerically imprecise information can be modelled and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. More recently, representations and methods for stating and analysing probabilities and values (utilities) with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper, we are discussing some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

  • 20.
    Ekenberg, Love
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Idefeldt, Jim
    Preference AB.
    Bohman, Samuel
    Institutet för framtidsstudier.
    The Lack of Transparency in Public Decision Processes2009Ingår i: International Journal of Public Information Systems, ISSN 1653-4360, Vol. 5, nr 1, s. 1-8Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We discuss the lack of transparency and use of elaborated decision methods in public decision processes. The decision regarding new roads in the greater Stockholm area has been used as a significant example.

  • 21.
    Ekener, Elisabet
    et al.
    Kungliga tekniska högskolan.
    Hansson, Julia
    IVL Svenska miljöinstitutet.
    Larsson, Aron
    Stockholms Universitet.
    Peck, Philip
    Lunds universitet.
    Developing Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment methodology by applying values-based sustainability weighting - Tested on biomass based and fossil transportation fuels2018Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 181, s. 337-351Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The production and use of transportation fuels can lead to sustainability impacts. Assessing them simultaneously in a holistic way is a challenge. This paper examines methodology for assessing the sustainability performance of products in a more integrated way, including a broad range of social impacts. Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) methodology is applied for this assessment. LSCA often constitutes of the integration of results from social LCA (S-LCA), environmental life cycle assessment (E-LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). In this study, an S-LCA from an earlier project is extended with a positive social aspect, as well as refined and detailed. E-LCA and LCC results are built from LCA database and literature. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology is applied to integrate the results from the three different assessments into an LCSA. The weighting of key sustainability dimensions in the MCDA is performed in different ways, where the sustainability dimensions are prioritized differently priority based on the assumed values of different stakeholder profiles (Egalitarian, Hierarchist, and Individualist). The developed methodology is tested on selected biomass based and fossil transportation fuels - ethanol produced from Brazilian sugarcane and US corn/maize, and petrol produced from Russian and Nigerian crude oils, where it delineates differences in sustainability performance between products assessed. The outcome in terms of relative ranking of the transportation fuel chains based on sustainability performance differs when applying different decision-maker profiles. This result highlights and supports views that there is no one single answer regarding which of the alternatives that is most sustainable. Rather, it depends strongly upon the worldview and values held by the decision maker. A key conclusion is that sustainability assessments should pay more attention to potential differences in underlying values held by key stakeholders in relevant societal contexts. The LCSA methodology still faces challenges regarding results integration but MCDA in combination with stakeholder profiles appears to be a useful approach to build on further.

  • 22.
    Ekener, Elisabeth
    et al.
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Finnveden, Göran
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology.
    Sandin, Per
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala.
    Operationalising and incorporating ethical considerations into a tool for multi-criteria decision making2016Ingår i: International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making, ISSN 2040-106X, E-ISSN 2040-1078, Vol. 6, nr 4, s. 290-315Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In this study, an existing method for ethical analysis was extended by adding aspects of human rights and global distributional issues as framed by the United Nations (UN) Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) and the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A procedure for incorporating these issues together with environmental, safety and cost considerations into a decision making framework using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was devised. This includes a scoring system to convert qualitative ethical issues into semi-quantitative issues. The refined framework tool was tested in an illustrative case on the destruction of ammunition. The results showed that the extended framework for ethical analysis added value, for example as a way of highlighting ethical considerations in decision making. Use of the DecideIT software with its integrated MCDA improved the analysis by allowing for uncertain and imprecise values and estimations. The illustrative case results indicated that a combined alternative including recycling of metals and energetic materials had clear advantages over open detonation.

  • 23.
    Fasth, Tobias
    et al.
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Portfolio Decision Analysis in Vague Domains2012Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEE conference proceedings, 2012, s. 61-65Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) is applicable in many domains and is therefore an important part of Decision Analysis (DA). PDA enables the identification of a preferred portfolio of alternatives instead of a single alternative, which is the typical case in traditional DA. The DELTA framework for interval decision analysis enables a decision maker to model and evaluate decision problems in vague domains with imprecise information, however, it does not support PDA. This paper presents an extension of the DELTA method so that portfolio decision problems can be modelled and evaluated within that framework. The extension is based on a set of reasonable requirements, and an evaluation of the PDA methods PROBE, RPM and Equity.

  • 24.
    Fasth, Tobias
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Sensitivity Analysis in Portfolio Interval Decision Analysis2013Ingår i: FLAIRS 2013 - Proceedings of the 26th International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, 2013, s. 609-614Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Techniques enabling decision makers to identify a set ofnon-mutually exclusive projects (or alternatives) constituting a portfolio, while allowing for imprecise information with respect to projects’ benefits, costs, andoverall resource constraints, have emerged as an areaof great applicability. To reach applicability, reasonable and computationally meaningful decision evaluation methods are needed. In this paper, we propose anembedded form of sensitivity analysis for portfolio interval decision analysis building upon the concept of interval contraction. Both a priori sensitivity analysis anda posteriori sensitivity analysis for portfolio interval decision analysis are supported by the approach.

  • 25.
    Fasth, Tobias
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    On the Use of ISO 2859 Sampling by Attributes as Quality Control of Cleared Land in Humanitarian Demining2012Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    In the International Mine Action Standards (IMAS) standards for mine actions are defined. One of these describes how quality control is conducted. The inspections and sampling of cleared land are based on the ISO 2859 standard. This standard uses sampling by attributes, i.e. a sample is taken from a lot of produced units andthe lot is rejected if the number of non-conforming items exceeds a threshold. In this report the criticism levelled against ISO 2859 is investigated and particularly the cost and informative value of using ISO 2859 as it is being applied through IMAS. A quantitative investigation of the sampling plans specified in IMAS indicate that the value of sampling is highly dependent on the size of the lot andthe actual quality level and that the sampling plans are not optimal. If samplingshould be conducted seen from a cost perspective taking its informative value into account, this value is highly dependent on the expected quality of clearance, to what degree this quality is uncertain, and the lot size. The IMAS is inflexibletowards this and is not well calibrated in order to weigh the informative value ofsampling against its costs. We therefore propose a revision of IMAS 09.20 facilitating a more cost effective approach to sampling and quality control. Of importance would be to relatethe cost of sampling to opportunity costs such as performing clearance. This may also consider how to distribute the cost of sampling across cost carriers, stimulating the clearance organisations to obtain and maintain a high quality. Further, it isnot clear how to account for both the producer’s and the consumer’s risk in terms of quality in the mine action domain. Investigating methods for aggregating thesein a model for identifying a feasible sampling plan might be valuable in order to perform cost effective quality control while maintaining the objective of releasingsafe land.

  • 26.
    Fasth, Tobias
    et al.
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi. Stockholms Universitet.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet; International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria .
    Danielson, Mats
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet; International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Austria.
    Measuring Conflicts Using Cardinal Ranking: An Application to Decision Analytic Conflict Evaluations2018Ingår i: Advances in Operations Research, ISSN 1687-9147, E-ISSN 1687-9155, Vol. 2018, artikel-id 8290434Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    One of the core complexities involved in evaluating decision alternatives in the area of public decision-making is to deal with conflicts. The stakeholders affected by and involved in the decision often have conflicting preferences regarding the actions under consideration. For an executive authority, these differences of opinion can be problematic, during both implementation and communication, even though the decision is rational with respect to an attribute set perceived to represent social welfare. It is therefore important to involve the stakeholders in the process and to get an understanding of their preferences. Otherwise, the stakeholder disagreement can lead to costly conflicts. One way of approaching this problem is to provide means for comprehensive, yet effective stakeholder preference elicitation methods, where the stakeholders can state their preferences with respect to actions part of the current agenda of a government. In this paper we contribute two supporting methods: (i) an application of the cardinal ranking (CAR) method for preference elicitation for conflict evaluations and (ii) two conflict indices for measuring stakeholder conflicts. The application of the CAR method utilizes a do nothing alternative to differentiate between positive and negative actions. The elicited preferences can then be used as input to the two conflict indices indicating the level of conflict within a stakeholder group or between two stakeholder groups. The contributed methods are demonstrated in a real-life example carried out in the municipality of Upplands Väsby, Sweden. We show how a questionnaire can be used to elicit preferences with CAR and how the indices can be used to semantically describe the level of consensus and conflict regarding a certain attribute. As such, we show how the methods can provide decision aid in the clarification of controversies.

  • 27.
    Fasth, Tobias
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Kalinina, Maria
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Disagreement Constrained Action Selection in Participatory Portfolio Decision Analysis2016Ingår i: International Journal of Innovation, Management and Technology, ISSN 2010-0248, Vol. 7, nr 1, s. 1-7Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In some portfolio decision problems it is not possible or interesting to constrain portfolios with a monetary budget. Instead it might be of interest to investigate how disagreement among a group of decision makers or stakeholders can be used as a constraint, and how this affects the portfolio composition. In this paper we present complementary decision evaluation methods for group portfolio decision analysis in situations where the stakeholders have conflicting preferences. The approach supports the analysis of a portfolio of planned actions in urban planning when a large group of stakeholders have inconsistent opinions with respect to the performance of each action. The group of stakeholders is, for each criterion, partitioned into two disagreeing groups based upon their views on the actions' performance. The distance between these two groups is then measured. An action's aggregated disagreement taking into account all criteria is then used as the action's associated resource constraint, and portfolios can be generated by solving a sequence of Knapsack problems. The robustness of the portfolios can be further evaluated with an a priori sensitivity analysis. The suggested approach supports decision makers by elucidating how the portfolio composition changes when the actions' aggregated disagreement increases.

  • 28.
    Gamukama, Elly
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Popov, Oliver
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Mugisha, Joseph Y. T.
    Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University, Uganda.
    The Decision Model for the Internet Services in the Context of Development2015Ingår i: Procedia Computer Science / [ed] Luiz Flavio Autran Monteiro Gomes, Raul Colcher, Peter Wolcott, Enrique Herrera-Viedma and Yong Shi, Elsevier, 2015, Vol. 55, s. 622-631Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Internet Services in the Context of Development (ISCD) model is structured in four levels of hierarchy based on the Analytical Hierarchy Processes (AHP) theory. The model provides a formal approach of establishing the relative importance of Internet services in the context of fostering national development. This paper presents the fundamental conceptsof themodel. Pairwise Comparisons (PCs) technique the cornerstone of the AHP theory is used as the baseline technique for measuring the intensity of preference between the Internet traffic classes (therein their respective services they deliver to end users) in the process of formulating the judgment matrix. The ISCD model is modelled to process data obtained from a group of individual decision makers that are independent from each other. Hence decision makers are weighted in the process of aggregating their priority vectors and the normalized weighted geometric mean method (NWGMM) is used to compute the group's priority vector, which is the final output of the model.

  • 29.
    Gamukana, Elly Amani
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Popov, Oliver
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    A Descriptive Model for Aligning the Goals of the Internet Stakeholders in LDCs2014Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The Internet as a platform for services provision and delivery is adopted world over. To least developed countries it is further perceived as a medium for fostering development. A perception that is likely not to be easily achieved because the decisions that led to its existence in such countries never addressed the need of aligning the stakeholders’ goals which inherit the misalignments in present Internet architectural model. We present a model based on AHP theory that lays strategies through which informed decisions for aligning stakeholders’ goals can be made to use the Internet as medium for enhancing national development initiatives.

  • 30.
    Gilbert, Åsa
    et al.
    Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    A Review of External Post-clearance Inspection: How Cost-effective is it?2013Ingår i: Journal of ERW and Mine Action, ISSN 2154-1485, Vol. 17, nr 1, s. 16-20Artikel i tidskrift (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    The Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining conducted a study in early 2012 to consider the effectiveness of performing external post-clearance inspections. GICHD took into account the practices of the International Mine Action Standards, the International Organization for Standardization and the numerous mine action programs worldwide. It also worked with the Swedish company Preference Consulting to determine the mathematical probability of finding a mine/explosive remnant of war during external post-clearance inspections. Lastly, GICHD examined the normative effect of external post-clearance inspections as well as the financial cost associated with their execution.

  • 31.
    Große, Christine
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Olausson, Pär M.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Avdelningen för samhällsvetenskap.
    Danielsson, Erna
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Avdelningen för samhällsvetenskap.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    Wallman Lundåsen, Susanne
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Avdelningen för samhällsvetenskap.
    Björkqvist, Olof
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för kemiteknik.
    Nyhlén, Jon
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för humanvetenskap, Avdelningen för samhällsvetenskap.
    Collaboration and Decision-making in Response Planning for Power Shortages: The Swedish Policy2017Konferensbidrag (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    Electricity is a key resource for the majority of societal functions and constitutes an important sector in the critical infrastructure of modern societies. Disturbances in power supply can have cascading effects on interdependent public sectors and ordinary citizens. However, it seems nearly impossible to completely prevent the occurrence of power shortages. Strategies to address temporary power losses are therefore essential. This paper aims to increase the understanding of national policies to manage the early consequences of power outages. Therefore, we critically review the Swedish national policy called Styrel as part of Swedish Crisis Management System. In the scientific literature, there are few examples similar to Styrel for handling emergencies in the electricity system. Particularly, we seek to discover related risks and benefits, conditions and constraints, as well as effects for specific stakeholders. We argue that the approach cannot yet be considered as fully developed. Three areas requiring improvement are identified. First, the scope and terms of the process must be specified. Second, (better) quality management seems necessary. Third, people responsible for identifying and prioritizing power consumers critical to local society need better decision aid. Improvements could facilitate risk-communication and collaboration among actors as well as decision-making and organisational learning.

  • 32.
    Hansson, Karin
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Science, Stockholm university.
    Cars, Göran
    School of Architecture and the Build Environment, KTH.
    Danielson, Mats
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Science, Stockholm university.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Science, Stockholm university.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Diversity and Public Decision Making2012Ingår i: World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 71: Proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on e-Democracy and Open Government, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology , 2012, s. 1678-1683Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Within the realm of e-government, the development has moved towards testing new means for democratic decisionmaking, like e-panels, electronic discussion forums, and polls.Although such new developments seem promising, they are not problem-free, and the outcomes are seldom used in the subsequent formal political procedures. Nevertheless, process models offer promising potential when it comes to structuring and supporting transparency of decision processes in order to facilitate the integration of the public into decision-making procedures in a reasonable and manageable way. Based on real-life cases of urban planning processes in Sweden, we present an outline for an integrated framework for public decision making to: a) provide tools for citizens to organize discussion and create opinions; b) enable governments, authorities, and institutions to better analyse these opinions; and c) enable governments to account for this information in planning and societal decision making by employing a process model for structured public decision making.

  • 33.
    Hansson, Karin
    et al.
    Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Danielson, Mats
    Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Gustafsson Fürst, Johanna
    Liljenberg, Thomas
    Prototyping for Participatory Democracy: Fine Arts as Means for the Study of Multi-modal Communication in Public Decision Making2011Ingår i: Interactive Media Arts Conference: The Unheard Avantgarde, 2011Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    We present a thematic art project in a suburb of Stockholm as a means to generate problem areas in focus for a research project on multimodal communication and democratic decision-making. Through art we play with different techniques and ideas about democracy in a particular location in order to obtain a better understanding of the citizens and their environments. Artists' actions, installations and mediations create a direct confrontation with the place and its inhabitants, and explore the dynamic relationships that constitute its context. The common denominator for the invited artists is that they work with situation-specific emancipatory art that in various ways relates to the physical and mediated public sphere. The art project is a collaborative process where the artists develop the project and take part in the contextualization in collaboration with researchers. This is achieved partly through a shared memory work on the theme of power / powerlessness. From this feminist research practice notions of democracy is examined in order to investigate, expose, enhance and / or remodel relations of the site. The aim with the art project is to put the site and the individual in a web of geographical, social and economic contexts. The aim is also to contribute to a debate on artistic research by showing how art can be viewed as a qualitative method. Through the practice of the memory work method we contribute to the development of this methodology, and map out a space for art in the field of science.

  • 34.
    Hansson, Karin
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Karlström, Petter
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Verhagen, Harko
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Actory: A Tool for Visualizing Reputation as a Meansto Formalize Informal Social Behavior2011Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference on Reputation, 2011Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In order to investigate and challenge a normative liberal democraticview of participation, we propose an experimental system based on differencesin reputation and user activity. Based on democratic meeting techniques andsocial media, basic principles for a groupware are formulated containing typicaldemocratic features such as voting and discussion, but taking reputation intoaccount and clarifying the individual's activities in relation to the group. Theprototype stands in contrast to commonly used internet forums by highlightingdifferences in reputation and activity and making these visible and changeableby its users thus shedding some light on status and reputation issues in internetforums and groupware.

  • 35.
    Hansson, Karin
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Karlström, Petter
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Verhagen, Harko
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Reputation, inequality and meeting techniques: Visualising user hierarchy to support collaboration2014Ingår i: Computational and mathematical organization theory, ISSN 1381-298X, E-ISSN 1572-9346, Vol. 20, nr 2, s. 155-175Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Equality within groups is ordinarily taken for granted when technology for e-democracy is conceived and developed. However, inequality in online communication is just as common as in other social contexts. Therefore, we have developed a groupware with the express purpose of illuminating imbalance of power. Inequalities are measured and made visible to users of the system, and they change dynamically as actions are taken by users. The system is based on democratic meeting techniques and is reminiscent of a strategy game based on social media. Each participant’s score within the game is dynamically calculated and reflects that user’s activity, others’ reactions to that activity and reactions to others’ activities. The calculations and weighing mechanisms are open to inspection and change by the users, and hierarchical roles reflecting game levels may be attached to system rights belonging to individual users and user groups. The prototype we present stems from the question of how to conceive of groupware based on diversity and is the result of combining social theory with algorithms for modelling and visualising user hierarchy and status. Empirical user tests suggest improvements to the prototype’s interface, which will be implemented and further evaluated by embedding the algorithms in a system for e-participation.

  • 36.
    Hansson, Karin
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier. Stockholm Univ, Dept Comp & Syst Sci, SE-16440 Kista, Sweden.
    Danielson, Mats
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Coping with Complex Environmental and Societal Flood Risk Management Decisions: An Integrated Multi-criteria Framework2011Ingår i: Sustainability, ISSN 2071-1050, E-ISSN 2071-1050, Vol. 3, nr 9, s. 1357-1380Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    During recent years, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. One reason behind is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take both the best interests of society and of the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria (conflicting objectives) as well as multiple stakeholders (conflicting interests). A systems approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and societal risk management decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modeling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies where numerous stakeholders are incorporated in the process. The resulting framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework will aid decision makers with high risk complex environmental decisions subject to significant uncertainties.

  • 37.
    Hansson, Karin
    et al.
    Royal Institute of Art.
    Verhagen, Harko
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Karlström, Petter
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Formalizing informal social behavior: developing a visual tool to support collaborative discussions2011Ingår i: Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Collaborative Computing: Networking, Applications and Worksharing, IEEE Computer Society Digital Library, 2011, s. 422-429Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In technological development in the area of edemocracy in-group equality is taken for granted. However, inequality in online communication is just as common as in other social contexts. To research the effects of starting from the presupposition of inequality we have developed a groupware for discussions. Based on democratic meeting techniques and social media it takes the form of a strategic game. The score within the game reflect user activity and the reactions to the activity in a dynamic way. Existing groupware and Internet forums available share the measurement of user activity but their evaluation systems are hidden from the user and not open to change. Instead, our system offers many reaction mechanisms that all add to the score for a user that can be seen as the expression of the user's status. The calculation and weighing mechanisms are open to inspection and change by the users. Hierarchical roles reflecting game levels may be attached to rights of what a specific user may change. The prototype presented in this paper will be evaluated in the next phase of the design research process.

  • 38.
    Hansson, Karin
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Verhagen, Harko
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Karlström, Petter
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Reputation and Online Communication: Visualizing Reputational Power to Promote Collaborative Discussions2013Ingår i: Proceedings of the 46th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), IEEE conference proceedings, 2013, s. 748-758Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In technological development in the area of e-democracy in-group equality is taken for granted. However, inequality in online communication is just as common as in other social contexts. To research the effects of starting from the presupposition of inequality we have developed a groupware for discussions. Based on democratic meeting techniques and social media it takes the form of a strategic game. The score within the game reflect user activity and the reactions to the activity in a dynamic way. The calculation and weighing mechanisms are open to inspection and change by the users. Hierarchical roles reflecting game levels may be attached to rights of what a specific user may change. The prototype presented in this paper will be further evaluated in the next phase of the design research process.

  • 39.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    et al.
    Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informationssystem och -teknologi.
    A systems tool for structuring public policy problems and design of policy options2017Ingår i: International Journal of Electronic Governance, ISSN 1742-7509, E-ISSN 1742-7517, Vol. 9, nr 1-2, s. 4-26Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Systems analysis allows quantitative empirical testing of models that exist in the study of public policy. Simulation and visualisation techniques can help policy makers to reduce uncertainties on the possible impacts of policies. This paper presents a new tool for systems modelling and simulation of policy problems to support the problem analysis, the design of policy options and impact assessment activities. The tool facilitates the cognitive activity of representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling by defining standards and a procedure for policy modelling. We propose a new policy-oriented problem structuring method (PSM), the 'labelled causal mapping'. The method supports scenario-based dynamic simulation and provides graphical representations of the involved actors, key variables, control flows and causal dependencies in a policy decision situation. A web-based tool prototype has been implemented in a Node.js environment. Two real policy problems are presented for demonstration of the use of the prototype.

  • 40.
    Ibrahim, Osama
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Sundgren, David
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    A Causal Mapping Simulation for Scenario Planning and Impact Assessment in Public Policy Problems: The Case of EU 2030 Climate and Energy Framework2014Ingår i: Proceedings of 5th World Congress on Social Simulation / [ed] MacKerrow, E.; Terano, T.; Squazzoni, F.; Sichman, J.S., 2014Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    The ultimate objective of studying, modeling and analyzing policy problems is to incorporate the newest management technologies in the public policy decision-making in a meaningful and practically feasible way that adds significant value to the process. Simulation techniques can support the policy decision process by allowing empirical evaluation of the system dynamics present in the policy situation at hand. This paper presents a decision support simulation model for the European Union (EU) Climate and Energy targets 2030 as a case study of public policy decision making on the EU level. The simulation model is based on the problem structuring or framing by derivation of a system dynamics model from verbal descriptions of the problem, the graphical representation and analysis of change scenarios using the ‘Causal Mapping and Situation Formulation’ method. This approach supports the analysis of qualitative and quantitative information in order to facilitate both the conceptualization and formulation stages of the system modeling process. The resulting model, which is simply a topology of quantified causal dependencies among the problem key variables, can be used to simulate the transfer of change. The aim of simulation herein is to apply cognitive strategic thinking and scenario-based planning in a public policy problem situation in order to design alternative options and provide foresight or ex-ante impact assessment in terms of economic, social, environmental and other impacts.

  • 41.
    Idefeldt, Jim
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Danielsson, Mats
    Preference Ordering Algorithms with Imprecise Expectations2006Ingår i: Proceedings of IMECS 2006, 2006, s. 750-755Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In imprecise domains the preference order of the alternatives is not straightforward to establish, due to possible overlapping of expected values among the alternatives. Nevertheless, such rankings are useful in decision analysis applications, as obtaining a ranking of alternatives is a way to gain an overview of the situation. The rankings presented in this paper represent overviews of a preference order of the alternatives based on their respective expected utility. The ranking can be either ordinal, focusing only on the ordering, or cardinal, also taking the differences in expected utility into account. The first set of procedures discussed is a cardinal ranking, which provides the user with expected utility intervals of the evaluated alternatives. This yields a more extensive overview with more detailed information. The second set of procedures discussed ordinal rankings of the alternatives based on three different approaches; 1) contraction based ranking, 2) intersection based ranking, and 3) focal point based ranking with indifference level. Finally, we show that regardless of ranking method their respective maximal elements all conform to the maximal element of the ordinal ranking. Hence, if the intention is to find a maximal element, it is sufficient to use either pointwise cardinal ranking or ordinal ranking with zero as indifference level.

  • 42.
    Kalinina, Maria
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Olsson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Easy-Interactive Ordering of the Pareto Optimal Set with Imprecise Weights2013Ingår i: World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology: An International Journal of Science, Engineering and Technology, ISSN 2010-376X, E-ISSN 2070-3740, nr 76, s. 643-648Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In the multi objective optimization, in the case when generated set of Pareto optimal solutions is large, occurs the problem to select of the best solution from this set. In this paper, is suggested a method to order of Pareto set. Ordering the Pareto optimal set carried out in conformity with the introduced distance function between each solution and selected reference point, where the reference point may be adjusted to represent the preferences of a decision making agent. Preference information about objective weights from a decision maker may be expressed imprecisely. The developed elicitation procedure provides an opportunity to obtain surrogate numerical weights for the objectives, and thus, to manage impreciseness of preference. The proposed method is a scalable to many objectives and can be used independently or as complementary to the various visualization techniques in the multidimensional case.

  • 43.
    Kalinina, Maria
    et al.
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Olsson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Generating and Ordering of Transport Alternatives in Inter-Modal Logistics in the Presence of Cost, Time, and Emission Conflicts2012Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEE conference proceedings, 2012, s. 131-135Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Intelligent matching of goods and freight transports is a complex task since different transport modes, such as trains, vessels and trucks have different strengths and weaknesses. Today, however, not only transport cost and time are considered but also the low emission is regarded as an important objective in intermodal freight logistics. The paper describes an approach for generating and ordering transports alternatives in the presence of cost, time, and emission conflicts. In order to obtain a reasonable ordering for generated alternatives we propose the use of the normalized Chebyshev distance between an alternative and a reference point, herein defined as a middle point. By doing so, preference information from a decision maker may be taken into account. The approach is tested on a medium sized problem. The results are promising and indicate the possibility of using the developed method in a decision support system. 

  • 44.
    Kalinina, Maria
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden .
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden .
    Sundgren, D.
    Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Sweden .
    On the compatibility of uncertainty formalisms in multi-objective optimization2014Ingår i: Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications, IOS Press, 2014, s. 48-58Konferensbidrag (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    Multi-objective optimization is a way to manage multiple objectives in analytical decision support systems. However, for real-life problems, different types of uncertainty often become prominent when defining the model. In this paper, we analyze these different types of uncertainties and suggest a suitable typology for a decision process based upon multi-objective optimization models. Uncertainty analysis can be performed based on the proposed typology; therefore, this analysis provides the necessary support for a decision maker in the identification the crucial uncertainty in the decision process. © 2014 The authors and IOS Press. All rights reserved.

  • 45.
    Kalinina, Maria
    et al.
    Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
    Olsson, Leif
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem.
    A Multi Objective Chance Constrained Programming Model for Intermodal Logistics with Uncertain Time2013Ingår i: International Journal of Computer Science Issues, ISSN 1694-0784, E-ISSN 1694-0814, Vol. 10, nr 6, s. 35-44Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a multi objective chance constrained programming model for matching of goods and transports in an intermodal transport chain under uncertain delivery time. The objectives in the proposed model are cost, emission, and transport time, where time is considered as an uncertain parameter. An approach to solve the model is proposed, and this approach has been implemented in a web-based system for transport matching in order to provide clients with alternative transport routes in a large system of possible transport solutions. A case study of a Swedish shipping company is analyzed, and the results are presented through comparisons of results from deterministic and stochastic models. The suggested model can help a decision maker to select transport alternative compromising between time, cost, emission, and with respect to uncertainty in transport time parameters.

  • 46.
    Komendantova, Nadejda
    et al.
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    Ekenberg, Love
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    Marashdeh, Leena
    University of Jordan.
    Al-Salaymeh, Ahmed
    University of Jordan.
    Danielson, Mats
    Stockholm University.
    Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    Tanbour, Jomana
    University of Jordan.
    Irshaid, Jenan
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    Spiegelhofer, Johanna
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    Larsson, Aron
    Preference Inc.
    Karlgren, Jussi
    The Royal Institute of Technology (KTH).
    Energy for the Future: Evaluating different electricity-generation technologies against selected performance characteristics and stakeholder preferences: Insights from the case study in Jordan2018Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
    Abstract [en]

    Currently, energy policy in Jordan is facing the challenge of having to cover the country’s electricity demand which is growing because of different factors, among them population growth, cooling of houses, desalination, large consumption centres and industry. The goal to provide reliable and affordable electricity includes diversification of electricity-generation sources from extensive reliance on fossil fuel imports to the generation of electricity from locally available resources, such as renewable energy sources but also nuclear energy and shale oil.  Energy transition towards a more significant share of domestically generated resources will inevitably lead to a societal transformation in Jordan, which will affect interests of existing and emerging electricity-generation industries and other stakeholders. To be sustainable, such a transition should also address issues of environmental protection and its contribution to socio-economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to develop compromise solutions to mitigate the risk that differences in views about electricity-generation technologies needed for energy transition will turn into conflicting opinions. Also, energy transition should address not only national energy security targets, but it should also integrate interests of local communities in the vicinity of future electricity-generation and transmission infrastructure.  This report is based on the assumption that human factors play an important role in energy transition. These human factors include perceptions of different risks connected with the use of certain technologies as well as views about benefits and impacts generated by different technologies. An innovative methodology was developed to address these views. This methodology allows us to assess the relevance of Jordan’s electricity-generation technologies, such as utility-scale photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), onshore wind, utility-scale hydro-electric, bituminous coal, heavy fuel oil, shale oil and natural gas against a set of criteria, which reflect environmental, social and economic components of sustainable development.  The results show that stakeholders prefer utility PV technology over all other technologies. The results also show that at the time of writing, the discourse in Jordanian society is dominated by economic rationality, such as electricity costs, supported by concerns about safety during operation and maintenance of electricity-generation power plans. The results also show a strong desire of all stakeholder groups for an opportunity to engage in decision-making processes on energy transition as the alternative of being simply compensated for the installation of electricity-generation and -transmission technologies does not appeal to local communities. 

  • 47.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    A framework for evaluating emergency preparedness plans and response strategies2008Rapport (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 48.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains2008Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 49.
    Larsson, Aron
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Graph decision models in a computational decision analytic framework2006Licentiatavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
  • 50.
    Larsson, Aron
    et al.
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Ekenberg, Love
    Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
    Danielson, Mats
    Inst. för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
    Decision Evaluation of Response Strategies in Emergency Management using Imprecise AssessmentsManuskript (preprint) (Refereegranskat)
    Abstract [en]

    In emergency management decision problems, the available estimates of probabilities, utilities, costs, and priority (decision attribute) weights are often subject to large degrees of uncertainty and imprecision. When uncertainty prevails in the input data and large societal values are at stake, coping with this lack of precision becomes very important in decision making processes. Building on decision theory and analysis, we present a generalisation and refinement of a large-scale analysis method in emergency policy management, in this paper focussing on decision evaluation of different response strategies. It employs representation of imprecision in probabilities, utilities, and weights in the form of interval statements and comparisons together with a formal, comprehensive, and comprehensible description of a catastrophic consequence.

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