In this paper, we describe a work in progress where a mixed methods approach is used to increase insight into what kind of consequences a temporal disruption or total breakdown of the payment system creates for a large variety of societal actors and to increase insight in how their collaborative behaviour can be guided to be more resilient. This approach includes data from different types of data collections; workshop with high-level decisionmakers from involved sectors, interviews with citizens, representatives from the fuel, foods, and finance sectors, as well as experiences from 15 simulation game exercises with stakeholders. The triangulated and aggregated outcomes of the different data collections resulted in a set of recommendations on how to cope with disruptions in the card payment system.
Large or lengthy disruptions to the card payment system are threats that can cause crisis in society, especially in countries where other payment options are scarce. This paper presents a study that provides suggestions on how to improve a simulation game used to increase societal resilience to payment system disruptions. Questionnaires and interviews have been used to investigate how 16 participant in crisis exercises experience realism, relevance and validity in such exercises. Suggestions on how to improve the simulation game are provided, such as improvements to the 1 https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/desi accessed at 2019-09-20 2 Statistics from 2018, analysed by the Swedish Riksbank, see https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/statistik/betalningsstatistik/2018/ payments-patterns-in-sweden-2018.pdf 3 There are several reports of such disruptions in the card payment system, although the duration of the disruptions were shorter than ten days. See for example (all accessed on 2019-10-17): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44335804 graphical interface and introducing supporting roles from the exercise management.
The price structure of district heating has been no major scientific issue for the last decades in energy related research. However, today trends in district heating pricing tend to move towards a more customer oriented approach with fixed prices under a longer period, leading to a more complex price structure. If a district heating supplier offers district heating with fixed prices in order to compete with similar electricity offers, the financial risk of the fixed price product is significantly higher than the risk of an ordinary variable cost offer. In contrary to an electricity seller, the district heating company can not transfer all of the risk of fixed prices offer to the financial market, instead the company is thrown upon its own ability to handle the risk by, e.g., hedging its own energy purchase. However, all uncertainties can not be coped with in this manner. Thus, there is a need for a methodology that can be used to estimate the financial risk of different price structures and to value different opportunities to reduce the risk. In this article we propose a methodology, implemented in a prototype software, to evaluate the risk associated with new price structures in district heating.
How on Earth did this happen? The question is not infrequent, but more to the point, it?s unnecessary. It arises because in many cases people haven?t thought things through beforehand. Yes, sometimes people can be unlucky, but far from every time that things go awry; bad luck is never so consistent - by definition. Thinking things through properly beforehand might seem a fairly obvious requirement for making a good decision, but startlingly often, even critical decisions are made without any in depth analysis. Well, there may have been some background data lying around somewhere, but not much is done with it. Though it's easy to blame authoritarian leadership or the like, poor decision making is far more usually due to not really knowing what to do with the available information, whether it's sufficient and what else needs to be known There?s nothing weird or idiotic about today?s decision makers, but there often is about the tools and methods available to them. It would be more accurate to say that many decision makers have been lead astray regarding their remit and capacity, but fortunately with structured decision processes they can be guided back on track far more easily than had they been as dim- witted as some of their decisions would indicate.Businesses introduce various BI solutions both timely and untimely, but what most of them don't have is any kind of methodology by which to deal with decisions. With no processes, knowledge, techniques or tools, they soon come to grief. Happily this is fairly easy to remedy.Decision processes and decision methods can be greatly improved. In this book we simply explain how to go about it.
To achieve the recommendation stated in the chapter title, we propose the following:
Stakeholders can be better engaged in energy efficiency decisions through the use of multicriteria models.
Decision-makers should present trade-offs, such as cost and emissions, and combinations of acceptable solutions to various stakeholders such as the public, housing associations, regulatory agencies, and financial institutions.
Decision-makers should adopt a user-centred approach to energy efficiency measures by encouraging stakeholder dialogues around decision-support tools (e.g. multicriteria modelling) to improve understanding of costs and benefits of measures.
Decision-makers should identify opportunities for consensus building and mindset shifts about the wider benefits of energy efficiency measures by emphasising their social considerations.
Using Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) perspectives can strengthen Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) led multicriteria models that visualise trade-offs as well as identify plausible conflicts among stakeholders.
A main problem in decision support contexts is that unguided decision making is difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to delivering decision support from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. A key observation, however, is that effective and efficient decision making is not easily achieved by using methods from one discipline only. This paper describes some efforts made by the DECIDE Research Group to approach DSS development and decision making tools in a cross-disciplinary way.
We present a case study in which a decision support method (ADL) was employed by a local government in order to guide and aid decisions on three complicated and politically infected issues which had remained unresolved for many years. The research inquiry was whether a well-defined and openly accessible method would aid a common understanding of the decision problems, and whether people would be able to accept a clearly motivated decision even if politically they preferred a different option. The ADL method has been used in several public sector projects ranging from very large purchasing decisions to the selection of national policies, but this test case was novel in that it involved close inspection by the public. This case was also devised as a test of new methods for potential inclusion into normal practices. The post-case analysis shows mixed understanding of and belief in the method. The results raise issues concerning both the potential for decision support methods in a political context and the nature of political decision making.
This paper presents a case of interval decision analysis using a tool that takes advantage of interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, and is capable of handling comparative relations, i.e. interval statements on differences between variables. These statements are represented as constraints to the solution set and evaluated using a number of different evaluation methods, each serving the decision-maker with different insights of the decision problem. We demonstrate the applicability of the tool in a case study regarding three public infrastructure decision problems which had remained unresolved during a number of years.
The nature of much information available to decision makers is vague and imprecise, be it information for human managers in organisations or for process agents in a distributed computer environment. Several models for handling vague and imprecise information in decision situations have been suggested. In particular, various interval methods have prevailed, i.e. methods based on interval estimates of probabilities and, in some cases, interval utility estimates. Even if these approaches in general are well founded, little has been done to take into consideration the evaluation perspective and, in particular, computational aspects and implementation issues. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a tool for handling imprecise information in decision situations. The tool is an implementation of our earlier research focussing on finding fast algorithms for solving bilinear systems of equations together with a graphical user interface supporting the interpretation of evaluations of imprecise data.
The requirement to assign precise numerical values to model entities such as criteria weights, probabilities, and utilities is too strong in most real-life decision situations, and hence alternative representations and evaluation mechanisms are important to consider. In this paper, we discuss the DecideIT 3.0 state-of-the-art software decision tool and demonstrate its functionality using a real-life case. The tool is based on a belief mass interpretation of the decision information, where the components are imprecise by means of intervals and qualitative estimates, and we discuss how multiplicative and additive aggregations influence the resulting distribution over the expected values.
In this paper, we discuss representation and evaluation in the DecideIT 3.0 decision tool which is based on a belief mass interpretation of the background information. The decision components are imprecise in terms of intervals and qualitative estimates and we emphasise how multiplicative and additive aggregations influence the resulting belief distribution over the expected values.
Evaluation of decision trees in which uncertain information is present is complicated. Especially when the tree has some depth, i.e. consists of more than one level, the effects of the choice of representation and evaluation procedures are significant. Second-order representation and evaluation may significantly increase a decisionmaker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. Furthermore, due to the effects on the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the Gamma-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily pessimistic as the belief in neighbourhoods of points near interval boundaries is usually lower than in neighbourhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed. The results in this paper apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order information, such as standard decision trees or probabilistic networks using only first-order concepts, for example upper and lower bounds. Furthermore, the results also apply to other, non-probabilistic weighted trees such as multi-criteria weight trees.
Decisions under risk and multi-criteria decisions are unfortunately usually studied independently, despite the fact that in actual decision-making problems often contain several criteria, as well as uncertain outcomes. This is unnecessary since the two approaches can quite straightforwardly be used within the same framework. This article describes how it can be done when the decision components are imprecise in terms of intervals and qualitative estimates. We also demonstrate an implementation of the theory on a real-life decision problem.
Recently, representations and methods analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically impreciseprobabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expectedutility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.
This paper presents a case showing how the use of a transparent decision support model can increase the effectiveness of the preparatory, analysis and negotiation stages of a democratic decision process. The case is of a democratic decision process taking advantage of a transparent decision support model, which may be extended to also include participatory elements in a well-defined manner. The support methods must allow for decision modelling with respect to different preferences and views, which further can be adjusted in an interactive fashion when considering calculated decision outcomes.
The Swedish city of Örebro has since long faced complex problems with poor water quality in a local river. This problem is a typical example of a regional decision problem, since there are several different stakeholders that might be affected, and there are different views on the need for, and effect of, different measures. The problems also strongly relate to the environmental condition of the river and involve other municipalities as well. In this chapter, we describe how to address this problem using an implementation of a systematic democratic decision process for enhancing the transparency and the decision quality in itself. The process is in conformity with common democratic processes, but with higher emphasis on accuracy and precision and on the interaction between civil servants and decision makers. A main issue here is to clearly separate the various views involved in these processes from the actual facts and, at the same time, facilitate input from various stakeholders. Therefore, we allow for modelling of outcomes based on different preferences and facilitate an elicitation process where views are extracted and combined with basic data from the background investigations preceding the decision. The process is divided into two stages. The first one is emphasized in this chapter and concerns the internal democracy, i.e. the formulation and refinement of the original and extended decision problems and the interaction between politicians and civil servants, while the second stage deals with the external democracy, i.e. the communication with the public, where communication channels directed towards citizens will be formed.
The limited amount of good tools for supporting elicitation of preference information in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) causes practical problem. In our experiences, this can be remedied by allowing more relaxed input statements from decision-makers, causing the elicitation process to be less cognitively demanding. Furthermore, it should not be too time consuming and must be able to actually use of the information the decision-maker is able to supply. In this paper, we propose a useful weight elicitation method for MAVT/MAUT decision making, which builds on the ideas of rank-order methods, but increases the precision by adding numerically imprecise cardinal information as well.
In investment decision-making in organizations, large values can be at stake. The need for a structured process is evident, not least when several people or interests are involved in the process. We advocate that the use of modern computational decision analysis can improve such investment processes by improving visibility and only requiring reasonably precise input data. The applicability of a structured decision analysis to corporate decision-making is demonstrated in a case study at SCA Transforest, a subdivision to SCA. The decision problem consists of whether a new system for logistic control should be implemented or not. The background information was collected through interviews and the structuring and analysis of the problem was performed using the tool DecideIT, designed for handling situations where uncertainties in input data prevail. The result of the analysis points out a reasonable action, but also shows which aspects are crucial to consider for a reliable result.
Intelligent and context-aware mobile services require usersand applications to share information and utilize services from remotelocations. Thus, context information from the users must be structuredand be accessible to applications running in end-devices. In response tothis challenge, we present a shared object-oriented meta model for a persistentagent environment. The approach enables agents to be contextawarefacilitating the creation of ambient intelligence demonstrated bya sensor-based scenario. The agents are context-aware as agent actionsare based upon sensor information, social information, and the behaviorof co-agents.
It is often recognised that in real-life decision situations, classical utility theory puts too strong requirements on the decision-maker. Various interval approaches for decision making have therefore been developed and these have been reasonably successful. However, a problem that sometimes appears in real-life situations is that the result of an evaluation still has an uncertainty about which alternative is to prefer. This is due to expected utility overlaps rendering discrimination more difficult. In this article we discuss how adding second-order information may increase a decision-maker�s understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams.
Recently, representations and methods aimed at analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with distributions over them (second-order representations) have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings of the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.
Second-order calculations may significantly increase a decision maker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. The results apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order distributions, instead using only first-order concepts such as upper and lower bounds.
The purpose of this research was to develop a methodological framework that could be applied for policy formation in situations having a high level of uncertainty and heterogeneity of existing opinions among involved stakeholders about risk mitigation and management such as COVID-19 pandemic risk. In this paper, we present such a framework and its application for policy decision-making in Botswana for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of the proposed model is twofold: firstly, to supply decision-makers with reliable and usable epidemiologic modelling since measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus were initially to a large extent based on various epidemiologic risk assessments. Secondly, given that some sets of measures adopted in other parts of the world were progressively imposing high or even very high social and economic costs on the countries which adopted these measures, we provided a multi-criteria decision support model which could be used in order to weigh different policy approaches to combat the virus spread taking into consideration local impact assessments across a variety of societal areas. We describe how the formulation of a national COVID-19 strategy and policy in Botswana in 2020 was aided by using ICT decision support models as a vital information source. Then we present the virus spread simulation model and its results which are connected to a multi-criteria decision support model. Finally, we discuss how the framework can be further developed for the needs of Botswana to optimise hazard management options in the case of handling COVID-19 and other pandemic scenarios. The significant research contribution is on advancing the research frontier regarding a methodology of including the heterogeneity of views and identification of compromise solutions in policy-relevant discourses under a high degree of uncertainty.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the adequacy of International Mine Action Standards 09.20 (IMAS 09.20) and the used standards ISO 2859 in the context of demining. The authors show how the actual quality level acceptable quality limit (AQL) significantly affects the average total quality cost for one lot with a single sampling plan and, consequently, the average total quality cost, and as AQL increases, the cost of rejecting a lot and the cost of sampling increase. The sampling plans for demining are not always optimal given economical and other concerns and that other mechanisms should be considered. Addressing opportunity costs for adopting wide samplings plans instead of clearing uncleared land per default, as well as balancing producer and consumer consequences seems, therefore, to be highly relevant from a socio-economical perspective. The general understanding of quality management and the systems involved are limited within the mine action sector. IMAS and most national mine action standards provide only a fairly narrow description of the issue. This implies that the field is missing opportunities to achieve efficiency and effectiveness, as well as to learn from and improve upon past experiences. The authors demonstrate herein that sampling provides little additional confidence as to whether a particular area is free from explosive hazards and substantial savings can be made compared to the current practice.
This paper discusses how numerically imprecise information can be modelled and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. More recently, representations and methods for stating and analysing probabilities and values (utilities) with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper, we are discussing some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.
We discuss the lack of transparency and use of elaborated decision methods in public decision processes. The decision regarding new roads in the greater Stockholm area has been used as a significant example.
The production and use of transportation fuels can lead to sustainability impacts. Assessing them simultaneously in a holistic way is a challenge. This paper examines methodology for assessing the sustainability performance of products in a more integrated way, including a broad range of social impacts. Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) methodology is applied for this assessment. LSCA often constitutes of the integration of results from social LCA (S-LCA), environmental life cycle assessment (E-LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). In this study, an S-LCA from an earlier project is extended with a positive social aspect, as well as refined and detailed. E-LCA and LCC results are built from LCA database and literature. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology is applied to integrate the results from the three different assessments into an LCSA. The weighting of key sustainability dimensions in the MCDA is performed in different ways, where the sustainability dimensions are prioritized differently priority based on the assumed values of different stakeholder profiles (Egalitarian, Hierarchist, and Individualist). The developed methodology is tested on selected biomass based and fossil transportation fuels - ethanol produced from Brazilian sugarcane and US corn/maize, and petrol produced from Russian and Nigerian crude oils, where it delineates differences in sustainability performance between products assessed. The outcome in terms of relative ranking of the transportation fuel chains based on sustainability performance differs when applying different decision-maker profiles. This result highlights and supports views that there is no one single answer regarding which of the alternatives that is most sustainable. Rather, it depends strongly upon the worldview and values held by the decision maker. A key conclusion is that sustainability assessments should pay more attention to potential differences in underlying values held by key stakeholders in relevant societal contexts. The LCSA methodology still faces challenges regarding results integration but MCDA in combination with stakeholder profiles appears to be a useful approach to build on further.
In this study, an existing method for ethical analysis was extended by adding aspects of human rights and global distributional issues as framed by the United Nations (UN) Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) and the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A procedure for incorporating these issues together with environmental, safety and cost considerations into a decision making framework using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was devised. This includes a scoring system to convert qualitative ethical issues into semi-quantitative issues. The refined framework tool was tested in an illustrative case on the destruction of ammunition. The results showed that the extended framework for ethical analysis added value, for example as a way of highlighting ethical considerations in decision making. Use of the DecideIT software with its integrated MCDA improved the analysis by allowing for uncertain and imprecise values and estimations. The illustrative case results indicated that a combined alternative including recycling of metals and energetic materials had clear advantages over open detonation.
Maritime transport facilitates trade with bioenergy feedstocks in the Baltic region. The study aims to provide guidance on efficient organisation of logistics at the port of loading for maritime transport of wood chips. The economic effects of using an intermediate terminal as opposed to direct delivery to port were studied, as well as the relationships between production capacity and storage capacity. Discrete-Event Simulation was used to analyse scenarios where a variable part of the volume is handled through the terminal. The total supply cost, including chipping, transportation, storage and handling at inland terminal and port, as well as loading of the ship, varied between €6.73 and 7.85 per MWh in the different scenarios. The volume passing through the terminal had a significant influence on total cost, showing a supply chain cost increase of €0.78 per m3 (approxi-mately €4.67 per dry tonne) for material delivered through the terminal. The difference in storage cost between port and inland terminal determines whether the terminal volumes affect costs, which was shown by a sensitivity analysis. Even so, the terminal offers a possibility to manage uncertainty, both in production rates and inshipping date, and influences the supply network. The main advantage of using a simulation technique for planning production and logistic flows is the visualisation of risks and margins.
Urban planning typically involves multiple actors and stakeholders with conflicting opinions and diverging preferences. The proposed development plans and actions greatly affect the quality of life of the local community at different spatial scales and time horizons. Consequently, it is important for decision-makers to understand and analyse the conflicting needs and priorities of the local community. This paper presents a decision analytic framework for evaluating stakeholder conflicts in urban planning. First, the stakeholders state their preferences regarding the actions in terms of a set of criteria and estimate the weight of each criterion. Then, a conflict index and overall value for each action is calculated. Next, a set of Pareto efficient portfolios of actions are generated by solving an optimization problem with different levels of conflict as a resource constraint. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the actions is performed. The framework is demonstrated using real-world survey data collected in the municipality of Upplands Vasby, Sweden.
Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) is applicable in many domains and is therefore an important part of Decision Analysis (DA). PDA enables the identification of a preferred portfolio of alternatives instead of a single alternative, which is the typical case in traditional DA. The DELTA framework for interval decision analysis enables a decision maker to model and evaluate decision problems in vague domains with imprecise information, however, it does not support PDA. This paper presents an extension of the DELTA method so that portfolio decision problems can be modelled and evaluated within that framework. The extension is based on a set of reasonable requirements, and an evaluation of the PDA methods PROBE, RPM and Equity.
Techniques enabling decision makers to identify a set ofnon-mutually exclusive projects (or alternatives) constituting a portfolio, while allowing for imprecise information with respect to projects’ benefits, costs, andoverall resource constraints, have emerged as an areaof great applicability. To reach applicability, reasonable and computationally meaningful decision evaluation methods are needed. In this paper, we propose anembedded form of sensitivity analysis for portfolio interval decision analysis building upon the concept of interval contraction. Both a priori sensitivity analysis anda posteriori sensitivity analysis for portfolio interval decision analysis are supported by the approach.
In the International Mine Action Standards (IMAS) standards for mine actions are defined. One of these describes how quality control is conducted. The inspections and sampling of cleared land are based on the ISO 2859 standard. This standard uses sampling by attributes, i.e. a sample is taken from a lot of produced units andthe lot is rejected if the number of non-conforming items exceeds a threshold. In this report the criticism levelled against ISO 2859 is investigated and particularly the cost and informative value of using ISO 2859 as it is being applied through IMAS. A quantitative investigation of the sampling plans specified in IMAS indicate that the value of sampling is highly dependent on the size of the lot andthe actual quality level and that the sampling plans are not optimal. If samplingshould be conducted seen from a cost perspective taking its informative value into account, this value is highly dependent on the expected quality of clearance, to what degree this quality is uncertain, and the lot size. The IMAS is inflexibletowards this and is not well calibrated in order to weigh the informative value ofsampling against its costs. We therefore propose a revision of IMAS 09.20 facilitating a more cost effective approach to sampling and quality control. Of importance would be to relatethe cost of sampling to opportunity costs such as performing clearance. This may also consider how to distribute the cost of sampling across cost carriers, stimulating the clearance organisations to obtain and maintain a high quality. Further, it isnot clear how to account for both the producer’s and the consumer’s risk in terms of quality in the mine action domain. Investigating methods for aggregating thesein a model for identifying a feasible sampling plan might be valuable in order to perform cost effective quality control while maintaining the objective of releasingsafe land.
One of the core complexities involved in evaluating decision alternatives in the area of public decision-making is to deal with conflicts. The stakeholders affected by and involved in the decision often have conflicting preferences regarding the actions under consideration. For an executive authority, these differences of opinion can be problematic, during both implementation and communication, even though the decision is rational with respect to an attribute set perceived to represent social welfare. It is therefore important to involve the stakeholders in the process and to get an understanding of their preferences. Otherwise, the stakeholder disagreement can lead to costly conflicts. One way of approaching this problem is to provide means for comprehensive, yet effective stakeholder preference elicitation methods, where the stakeholders can state their preferences with respect to actions part of the current agenda of a government. In this paper we contribute two supporting methods: (i) an application of the cardinal ranking (CAR) method for preference elicitation for conflict evaluations and (ii) two conflict indices for measuring stakeholder conflicts. The application of the CAR method utilizes a do nothing alternative to differentiate between positive and negative actions. The elicited preferences can then be used as input to the two conflict indices indicating the level of conflict within a stakeholder group or between two stakeholder groups. The contributed methods are demonstrated in a real-life example carried out in the municipality of Upplands Väsby, Sweden. We show how a questionnaire can be used to elicit preferences with CAR and how the indices can be used to semantically describe the level of consensus and conflict regarding a certain attribute. As such, we show how the methods can provide decision aid in the clarification of controversies.
In some portfolio decision problems it is not possible or interesting to constrain portfolios with a monetary budget. Instead it might be of interest to investigate how disagreement among a group of decision makers or stakeholders can be used as a constraint, and how this affects the portfolio composition. In this paper we present complementary decision evaluation methods for group portfolio decision analysis in situations where the stakeholders have conflicting preferences. The approach supports the analysis of a portfolio of planned actions in urban planning when a large group of stakeholders have inconsistent opinions with respect to the performance of each action. The group of stakeholders is, for each criterion, partitioned into two disagreeing groups based upon their views on the actions' performance. The distance between these two groups is then measured. An action's aggregated disagreement taking into account all criteria is then used as the action's associated resource constraint, and portfolios can be generated by solving a sequence of Knapsack problems. The robustness of the portfolios can be further evaluated with an a priori sensitivity analysis. The suggested approach supports decision makers by elucidating how the portfolio composition changes when the actions' aggregated disagreement increases.
The Internet Services in the Context of Development (ISCD) model is structured in four levels of hierarchy based on the Analytical Hierarchy Processes (AHP) theory. The model provides a formal approach of establishing the relative importance of Internet services in the context of fostering national development. This paper presents the fundamental conceptsof themodel. Pairwise Comparisons (PCs) technique the cornerstone of the AHP theory is used as the baseline technique for measuring the intensity of preference between the Internet traffic classes (therein their respective services they deliver to end users) in the process of formulating the judgment matrix. The ISCD model is modelled to process data obtained from a group of individual decision makers that are independent from each other. Hence decision makers are weighted in the process of aggregating their priority vectors and the normalized weighted geometric mean method (NWGMM) is used to compute the group's priority vector, which is the final output of the model.
The Internet as a platform for services provision and delivery is adopted world over. To least developed countries it is further perceived as a medium for fostering development. A perception that is likely not to be easily achieved because the decisions that led to its existence in such countries never addressed the need of aligning the stakeholders’ goals which inherit the misalignments in present Internet architectural model. We present a model based on AHP theory that lays strategies through which informed decisions for aligning stakeholders’ goals can be made to use the Internet as medium for enhancing national development initiatives.
The Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining conducted a study in early 2012 to consider the effectiveness of performing external post-clearance inspections. GICHD took into account the practices of the International Mine Action Standards, the International Organization for Standardization and the numerous mine action programs worldwide. It also worked with the Swedish company Preference Consulting to determine the mathematical probability of finding a mine/explosive remnant of war during external post-clearance inspections. Lastly, GICHD examined the normative effect of external post-clearance inspections as well as the financial cost associated with their execution.
Various societal functions, such as healthcare, freight transports, water supplies and electricity, ensure the daily life, endurance and progress of modern societies. The protection of such critical functions requires comprehensive information processing. Based on evidence from documents on the Swedish planning process STYREL and interviews with entrusted decisionmakers at county administrative boards, municipalities and power grid operators, this study aims to crystallise information pathways and flaws to highlight information filtration and alteration. Analyses of the material reveal a set of information-flawing filters, such as information withholding or loss when sharing, information scarcity in criticality assessments and ad-hoc information creation due to scarcity. Because of these filters, the Swedish process causes an altering of information that affects the quality of decisions and the emergency response plan that relies on them. Thus, this study indicates deficiencies that relate to information sharing, information security and decision-making that pose risks to citizens and businesses.
Electricity is a key resource for the majority of societal functions and constitutes an important sector in the critical infrastructure of modern societies. Disturbances in power supply can have cascading effects on interdependent public sectors and ordinary citizens. However, it seems nearly impossible to completely prevent the occurrence of power shortages. Strategies to address temporary power losses are therefore essential. This paper aims to increase the understanding of national policies to manage the early consequences of power outages. Therefore, we critically review the Swedish national policy called Styrel as part of Swedish Crisis Management System. In the scientific literature, there are few examples similar to Styrel for handling emergencies in the electricity system. Particularly, we seek to discover related risks and benefits, conditions and constraints, as well as effects for specific stakeholders. We argue that the approach cannot yet be considered as fully developed. Three areas requiring improvement are identified. First, the scope and terms of the process must be specified. Second, (better) quality management seems necessary. Third, people responsible for identifying and prioritizing power consumers critical to local society need better decision aid. Improvements could facilitate risk-communication and collaboration among actors as well as decision-making and organisational learning.
Within the realm of e-government, the development has moved towards testing new means for democratic decisionmaking, like e-panels, electronic discussion forums, and polls.Although such new developments seem promising, they are not problem-free, and the outcomes are seldom used in the subsequent formal political procedures. Nevertheless, process models offer promising potential when it comes to structuring and supporting transparency of decision processes in order to facilitate the integration of the public into decision-making procedures in a reasonable and manageable way. Based on real-life cases of urban planning processes in Sweden, we present an outline for an integrated framework for public decision making to: a) provide tools for citizens to organize discussion and create opinions; b) enable governments, authorities, and institutions to better analyse these opinions; and c) enable governments to account for this information in planning and societal decision making by employing a process model for structured public decision making.
We present a thematic art project in a suburb of Stockholm as a means to generate problem areas in focus for a research project on multimodal communication and democratic decision-making. Through art we play with different techniques and ideas about democracy in a particular location in order to obtain a better understanding of the citizens and their environments. Artists' actions, installations and mediations create a direct confrontation with the place and its inhabitants, and explore the dynamic relationships that constitute its context. The common denominator for the invited artists is that they work with situation-specific emancipatory art that in various ways relates to the physical and mediated public sphere. The art project is a collaborative process where the artists develop the project and take part in the contextualization in collaboration with researchers. This is achieved partly through a shared memory work on the theme of power / powerlessness. From this feminist research practice notions of democracy is examined in order to investigate, expose, enhance and / or remodel relations of the site. The aim with the art project is to put the site and the individual in a web of geographical, social and economic contexts. The aim is also to contribute to a debate on artistic research by showing how art can be viewed as a qualitative method. Through the practice of the memory work method we contribute to the development of this methodology, and map out a space for art in the field of science.
In order to investigate and challenge a normative liberal democraticview of participation, we propose an experimental system based on differencesin reputation and user activity. Based on democratic meeting techniques andsocial media, basic principles for a groupware are formulated containing typicaldemocratic features such as voting and discussion, but taking reputation intoaccount and clarifying the individual's activities in relation to the group. Theprototype stands in contrast to commonly used internet forums by highlightingdifferences in reputation and activity and making these visible and changeableby its users thus shedding some light on status and reputation issues in internetforums and groupware.
Equality within groups is ordinarily taken for granted when technology for e-democracy is conceived and developed. However, inequality in online communication is just as common as in other social contexts. Therefore, we have developed a groupware with the express purpose of illuminating imbalance of power. Inequalities are measured and made visible to users of the system, and they change dynamically as actions are taken by users. The system is based on democratic meeting techniques and is reminiscent of a strategy game based on social media. Each participant’s score within the game is dynamically calculated and reflects that user’s activity, others’ reactions to that activity and reactions to others’ activities. The calculations and weighing mechanisms are open to inspection and change by the users, and hierarchical roles reflecting game levels may be attached to system rights belonging to individual users and user groups. The prototype we present stems from the question of how to conceive of groupware based on diversity and is the result of combining social theory with algorithms for modelling and visualising user hierarchy and status. Empirical user tests suggest improvements to the prototype’s interface, which will be implemented and further evaluated by embedding the algorithms in a system for e-participation.
During recent years, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. One reason behind is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take both the best interests of society and of the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria (conflicting objectives) as well as multiple stakeholders (conflicting interests). A systems approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and societal risk management decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modeling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies where numerous stakeholders are incorporated in the process. The resulting framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework will aid decision makers with high risk complex environmental decisions subject to significant uncertainties.
In technological development in the area of edemocracy in-group equality is taken for granted. However, inequality in online communication is just as common as in other social contexts. To research the effects of starting from the presupposition of inequality we have developed a groupware for discussions. Based on democratic meeting techniques and social media it takes the form of a strategic game. The score within the game reflect user activity and the reactions to the activity in a dynamic way. Existing groupware and Internet forums available share the measurement of user activity but their evaluation systems are hidden from the user and not open to change. Instead, our system offers many reaction mechanisms that all add to the score for a user that can be seen as the expression of the user's status. The calculation and weighing mechanisms are open to inspection and change by the users. Hierarchical roles reflecting game levels may be attached to rights of what a specific user may change. The prototype presented in this paper will be evaluated in the next phase of the design research process.
In technological development in the area of e-democracy in-group equality is taken for granted. However, inequality in online communication is just as common as in other social contexts. To research the effects of starting from the presupposition of inequality we have developed a groupware for discussions. Based on democratic meeting techniques and social media it takes the form of a strategic game. The score within the game reflect user activity and the reactions to the activity in a dynamic way. The calculation and weighing mechanisms are open to inspection and change by the users. Hierarchical roles reflecting game levels may be attached to rights of what a specific user may change. The prototype presented in this paper will be further evaluated in the next phase of the design research process.
Systems analysis allows quantitative empirical testing of models that exist in the study of public policy. Simulation and visualisation techniques can help policy makers to reduce uncertainties on the possible impacts of policies. This paper presents a new tool for systems modelling and simulation of policy problems to support the problem analysis, the design of policy options and impact assessment activities. The tool facilitates the cognitive activity of representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling by defining standards and a procedure for policy modelling. We propose a new policy-oriented problem structuring method (PSM), the 'labelled causal mapping'. The method supports scenario-based dynamic simulation and provides graphical representations of the involved actors, key variables, control flows and causal dependencies in a policy decision situation. A web-based tool prototype has been implemented in a Node.js environment. Two real policy problems are presented for demonstration of the use of the prototype.