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  • 1.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information and Communication systems.
    Borglund, Erik
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Danielsson, Erna
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Human Sciences, Department of Social Sciences.
    Ekker, Knut
    Högskolan i Nord Tröndelag.
    Holand, Svare Ivar
    Högskolan i Nord Tröndelag.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information and Communication systems.
    Öberg, Lena-Maria
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information and Communication systems.
    Nygård, Ståle Andre
    Högskolan i Nord Tröndelag.
    Skevik, Trond Olav
    Högskolan i Nord Tröndelag.
    Sund, Torgrim
    Högskolan i Nord Tröndelag.
    Rapport från GSS: Gränsöverskridande samarbete för säkerhet2014Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
    Abstract [en]

    The GSS project (Gaining SecuritySymbiosis) aimed at contributing towards increased security and quality of life for inhabitants and visitors of the border region of the middle part of Sweden and Norway. Within this goal the project also aimed at increasing the likelihood of saving livesand reducing threats to the environment and material assets. GSS focuses on providing the information and knowledge required in emergency and crisis situations. GSS emphasizes preparatory activities. The cross-border value added by the project has several dimensions: •It increases understanding, trust and cooperation between emergency personnel on both sides of the border.•Authorities with responsibility for security establish long-term institutional partnership with respect to security and crisis management.•The attractiveness of the border region increases due to enhanced securityand improved crisis management.•The mutual knowledge and understanding regarding the situation across the national border increases among project participantsThe project has implemented three yearly cycles of training consisting of building a scenario, training in handling a crisis situation and evaluation. The results from the evaluation have provided the foundation for the next year cycle. The project also developed a training system across these three cycles. The training system includes a scenario bank, training exercises and support, play-back function and an evaluation module including statistical functions. The evaluations from these training sessions are included in a separate appendix. The first training session was conducted as a table-top exercise at the Border Rescue Council meeting in 2011. The other two training sessions were designed in order to allow the participants to sit at their respective workplaces and communicating with the other participants partly through traditional communications channels and through the training system. The training sessions were then discussed in the subsequent Border Rescue Council meetings. By accessing the scenarios and exercises in the training system the participants from the various rescue teams took part in the training sessions.The project results show that there is a great need for this kind of training. The participating organizations express that the training sessions havebeen very instructive and that participants have gained new contacts or developed the contacts that were already established. The results also show that participants have directly benefited from the project during real emergency events. The project costshave amounted to approximately 3,2 SEK and just under 2,5 NOK. Expenses have primarily consisted of the working hours of partners and to some extent travel expenses. The travel expenses have been reduced by the frequent use of distance communication technologies instead of physical meetings.

  • 2.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Ekker, Knut
    Högskolan i Nord-Tröndelag, Norge.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Debriefing with R-statistics and support for System Dynamics Modeling of Inter Regional Security2013In: Proceedings of IADIS International Conference  e-Society 2013, IADIS Press, 2013Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents data from an emergency management exercise conducted in May 2011 with participants from emergency teams in Norway and Sweden. Software was developed specifically for the tabletop exercise in which a web-based presentation of the events of the emergency scenario allowed detailed recording of the communication among the teams both within and between the two countries. The communication messages were used to analyze who communicated with whom, how often and with what kind of information about the emergency event. The R-statistics open source package allowed analysis of the data for the debriefing session following the training session. A social network analysis model is planned as input to a system dynamics model. Data from 13 discrete events in the tabletop simulation will provide input to the system dynamics model in order to visualize communication patterns between emergency teams both within each country and across the border.

  • 3.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Ekker, Knut
    Nord Trondelag University College, Steinkjer, Norway .
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Håkansson, Anita
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    NLS:A Reflection Support System for Increased Inter-Regional Security2014In: International Journal of Information Technologies and Systems Approach, ISSN 1935-570X, E-ISSN 1935-5718, Vol. 7, no 2, p. 62-84Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Cooperation across national borders is of paramount importance for the security in border close regions. Timely and adequate training, reflection, and preparation are core tools for facilitating and stimulating such interregional cooperation. Hence, NetAgora, a service oriented web portal for security cooperation, was designed. In NetAgora there is first a service package with accident- and emergency scenarios. Here multi-actors can train their cooperation and decision making skills. The R-statistics open source package is applied for recording and analyzing data from those training occasions. In subsequent debriefing sessions this is used for post-learning. Further, from anticipatory modeling and simulation it is found that rescue operations are delayed and misguided due to shortcomings in the communication between security command and communication centers. Hence, the NetAgora Learning System is designed and prototyped in order to overcome that problem. It will facilitate and stimulate reflection in action and double loop learning and aims at improving communication patterns by anticipatory pre-learning.

  • 4.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Simulated decision learning in a multiactor setting2009In: 23rd European Conference on Operational Research, 2009, p. 214-214Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 5.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Håkansson, Anita
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Applying Anticipatory Computing in System Dynamics2001In: Computing anticipatory systems: CASYS 2000, fourth international conference, Liège, Belgium, 7-12 August 2000, Melville, N.Y: American Institute of Physics , 2001, p. 578-589Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A traditional System Dynamics Model is compared with an Anticipatory Soft Computing Approach. A system for control and management of water resources and hydro electrical power stations is used as a real world test case. The System Dynamics Model is easily developed and run with help of commercial, special purpose modelling and simulation software. The resulting model increases understanding and generates new insights. Its lack of anticipatory power, however, makes the control task difficult. With the anticipatory approach, on the other hand, the control becomes more effective even if the modelling and model complexity increases rapidly than applied on a reasonable big and realistic real world case. Strong Anticipation, as compared to the more traditional Weak Anticipation, has proved itself to have many interesting and powerful properties.

  • 6.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Håkansson, Anita
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Creative Anticipatory Spatial Modelling for Intra Regional Simulation2004In: COMPUTING ANTICIPATORY SYSTEMS / [ed] Dubois, DM, Mellville, N.Y: American Institute of Physics , 2004, p. 533-543Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Current models and tools for support in spatial intra regional design, planning, and management may generally be judged as being too descriptive and too reactive. Hence, due to their rigidity and focusing on system history, they have severe shortcomings in guiding decision-makers in current decision situations, which are characterized by increasingly high degrees of uncertainty, unperceptibility, and change. Therefore, in order to improve the conditions for decision-makers, a conceptual design of a new tool, the MAP-tool, for support in such work is presented. MAP is designed around the conceptual integration of anticipatory modelling and computing, multi modal system modelling, soft computing, and spatial modelling and computing

  • 7.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Håkansson, Anita
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Multi modal anticipation in fuzzy space2006In: AIP Conference Proceedings, New York: American Institute of Physics , 2006, Vol. 839, p. 442-452Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    We are all stakeholders in the geographical space, which makes up our common living and activity space. This means that a careful, creative, and anticipatory planning, design, and management of that space will be of paramount importance for our sustained life on earth. Here it is shown that the quality of such planning could be significantly increased with help of a computer based modelling and simulation support tool. Further, the design and implementation of such a tool ought to be guided by the conceptual integration of some core concepts like anticipation and retardation, multi modal system modelling, fuzzy space modelling and simulation, and multi actor interaction.

  • 8.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Håkansson, Anita
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    NLS: The NetAgoraLearning System2013In: Advances in Simulation-Based Decision Support & Business Intelligence, Vol. 3, p. 11-15Article in journal (Refereed)
  • 9.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Håkansson, Anita
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Soft Spatial Decision Support2002In: IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, Piscataway, New Jersey: IEEE , 2002, Vol. 2, p. 1274-1279Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Decisions in planning and design of spatial systems express an extra high complexity, dimensionality, and uncertainty. Hence, such decisions are best supported by fuzzy visualisation of the involved variables and their interdependencies. With this approach a fuzzy man-machine system is proposed for spatial negotiations

  • 10.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Löfstedt, Ulrica
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Simulated Decision Learning in a Multiactor Setting2010In: Organizacija, ISSN 1318-5454, Vol. 43, no 3, p. 136-145Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The idea of decision analysis-and subsequent learning from the outcomes-is old within Operational Research. Here this approach to continuous improvement of decision outcomes is put one step further within the area of crisis and disaster management. This is done by introducing multiactors making simultaneous decisions with just partial information about each other. Further, decision outcomes are achieved from a simulation model rather than from the real object system.

  • 11.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Håkansson, Anita
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Complexity Challenges of Regional Planning and Design: Paper presented at the 11th Annual ANZSYS Conference/Managing the Complex, Christchurch, December 5 - 7, 2005.2005Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Spatial planning, i.e. planning and design of our common geographical space, is normally supported by different types of computerised planning tools. Today those tools, however, are porely fitted to meet the complexity challenges of spatial planning. Here it is found that the spatial complexity is a multidimensional super complexity. Main dimen-sions are Actor and Negotiation Complexity, Process and Structure Complexity, Space Com-plexity, Using Complexity, and Tools Complexity. However, complexity research has already produced a range of conceptual tools. With help of the Spatial Complexity Model it is demonstrated in what way those tools may be used to cope with the complexity challenges, i.e. the complexity dimensions, of spatial planning. Hence, by using the Spatial Complexity Model as a launching platform for the design of future support tools the expectations for a better complexity handling ability in spatial planning will increase.

  • 12.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Håkansson, Anita
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Decision Support for Spatial Planning and Management of Human Settlements1999In: Advances in support systems research Vol V: Decision support methodology for human systems management and its applications in economics and commerce, Winsor, Ontario, Canada: International Institute for Advanced Studies in Systems Research and Cybernetics , 1999, Vol. V, p. 30-39Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 13.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Håkansson, Anita
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Decision support functions embedded in GIS2001In: Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki, 8-10 october 2001, 2001Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The value of any GIS will be greatly improved if embedded with a proper decision support. In this way it will be possible to have the GIS supporting in complex and tricky, multi criteria decisions regarding for example the best localization of new constructions and activities. The common way of doing this is by help of overlays, one overlay for each criteria or variable of importance for the decision. This procedure, however, has already proven itself to have severe drawbacks as it is restricted to the binary rule of a logical AND operation. In this way an infinitesimal failure in one criterion may rule out an otherwise perfect alternative. With an approach based on Fuzzy Logic and Soft Computing, on the other hand, both trade offs between variables and flexible AND-OR rules may be put to use. The so called OWA-procedure is demonstrated to meet those criteria common in real life situations. However, OWA does not solve all problems and further requirements on a spatial decision support are identified.

  • 14.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Löfstedt, Ulrica
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    SYNCOM, A Tool for Competence Management2014In: Proceedingsof the e-Skills for Knowledge Production and Innovation Conference 2014, Cape Town, 2014, p. 39-48Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper addresses the issue of competence management in companies in the branch of Technical Communication. The problems these companies deal with concerns lack of specific education, more complex products, and a rapid change in how technical information is produced. Due to the rapid change the companies also need to be proactive and steer towards a desired future state. A design of a tool, SYNCOM, for competence management in modern high technology companies is presented. The tool is developed during a process based in idealized design.  SYNCOM constitutes of a group of systemic models and techniques for competence management and competence development that has been used in earlier projects. The SYNCOM Tool presented is a general tool aiming to be a model for organizations. Implementation of the tool will require adjustments and adaptation to the specific organizations. The SYNCOM Tool has not yet been tested as a tool in any organization. The systemic models and techniques for competence management and competence development have been tested with good results in earlier projects where they in form of prototypes have been tested and verified.

  • 15.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Löfstedt, Ulrica
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Öberg, Lena-Maria
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Dubois, Daniel
    University of Liège.
    Anticipatory Modeling andSimulation for Inter RegionalSecurity2013In: Systems. connecting matter, life, culture and technology, ISSN 2305-6991, Vol. 1, no 1, p. 21-35Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The idea of anticipatory modeling and simulation with subsequent learning from the outcomes is here applied on inter-regional security work. In this setting, multi-actors have to both cooperate and make coordinated decisions with just partial information about each other. With help of netAgora, a net based environment for simulation, learning, and communication, the goal of training, preparedness and continuous improvement of decisions is met.

  • 16.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Nyström, Christina
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Computer and System science.
    Soft Early Warning for Regional Security2014In: International Journal of Computing Anticipatory Systems, ISSN 1373-5411, Vol. 30, p. 191-198Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In this paper we will discuss security in functional regions that are divided between twoor more nations. Awareness and preparation requires some sort of warning mechanismmaking it possible for the people in the region to become aware and to preparethemselves for upcoming emergency situations. As both the disaster indicators and thecrisis to come are both fuzzy and unknown, we will speak about Soft Early WarningSystems (SEWS). In SEWS each individual living in a region will act as a networkedhuman anticipatory emergency sensor and actor. Our conception of such a regionalsecurity SEWS is given in the form of an idealised design called the netAgora portal.After discussing the broad lines of the netAgora design this paper will be focusing onthe key role anticipatory modelling and simulation may play in a tool for developing aSEWS capacity for handling transnational complex emergencies and disasters.

  • 17.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Nyström, Christina
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Soft Early Warning for Regional Security2010In: 24th European Conference on Operational Research, 2010Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 18.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Nyström, Christina
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Soft Early Warning for Regional Security2011In: Casys'11: Tenth International Conference on Computing Anticipatory Systems / [ed] Daniel M. Dubois, Liége: CAOS , 2011Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 19.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Öberg, Lena-Marie
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Product Information, a new IS Research Area2008In: IRIS 31, 2008Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 20.
    Asproth, Viveca
    et al.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Löfstedt, Ulrica
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Öberg, Lena-Maria
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Dubois, Daniel M.
    Anticipatory Modeling and Simulation for Inter-Regional Security2012In: The 21st European Meeting on Cybernetics and Systems Research / [ed] Bichler, R. M., Blachfellner, S., Hofkirchner, W., 2012Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The idea of anticipatory modeling and simulation with subsequent learning from the outcomes is here applied on inter regional security work. In this setting, multiactors have to both cooperate and make coordinated decisions with just partial information about each other. With help of netAgora, a net based environment for simulation, learning, and communication, the goal of training, preparedness and  continuous improvement of decisions is met. 

  • 21.
    Dubois, D. M.
    et al.
    HEC Management School, N1, University of Liège, rue Louvrex 14, B-4000 Liège, Belgium.
    Holmberg, S. C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Anticipatory mechanisms in evolutionary living systems2010In: CASYS'09, Liege: American Institute of Physics (AIP), 2010, Vol. 1303, p. 324-333Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper deals firstly with a revisiting of Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Darwin in his book never uses the word "evolution", but shows a clear position about mutability of species. Darwin's Natural Selection was mainly inspired by the anticipatory Artificial Selection by humans in domestication, and the Malthus struggle for existence. Darwin showed that the struggle for existence leads to the preservation of the most divergent offspring of any one species. He cited several times the canon of "Natura non facit saltum". He spoke about the origin of life from some one primordial form, into which life was first breathed. Finally, Darwin made anticipation about the future researches in psychology. This paper cites the work of Ernst Mayr who was the first, after 90 years of an intense scientific debate, to present a new and stable Darwinian paradigm as the "Evolutionary Synthesis" in 1942. To explain what is life, the Living Systems Theory (LST) by J. G. Miller is presented. It is showed that the Autopoietic Systems Theory of Varela et al is also a fundamental component of living systems. In agreement with Darwin, the natural selection is a necessary condition for transformation of biological systems, but is not a sufficient condition. Thus, in this paper we conjecture that an anticipatory evolutionary mechanism exists with the genetic code that is a self-replicating and self-modifying anticipatory program. As demonstrated by Nobel laureate McClintock, evolution in genomes is programmed. The word "program" comes from "pro-gram" meaning to write before, by anticipation, and means a plan for the programming of a mechanism, or a sequence of coded instructions that can be inserted into a mechanism, or a sequence of coded instructions, as genes of behavioural responses, that is part of an organism. For example, cell death may be programmed by what is called the apoptosis. This definitively is a great breakthrough in our understanding of biological evolution. Hence, it is possible to formulate a new principle of evolution, i.e. the principle of Double Anticipatory Loop (DAL) of evolution: Biological evolution is driven by interaction between a mindless environment that is passively selecting the fittest inhabitants and purposeful anticipatory living systems, which are actively selecting and creating their own environment. Evolution on the genome level is trigged by environmental stress but guided by an inherent program. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

  • 22. Dubois, D M
    et al.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Multi Layered Systems with Learning BehaviourManuscript (preprint) (Refereed)
  • 23. Dubois, D. M.
    et al.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    The Paradigm of Anticipation in Systemic Management.2006In: Proceedings. 18th European Meeting on Cybernetics and Systems Research EMCSR 2006, April 18 - 21, 2006, University of Vienna.: Cybernetics and Systems 2006. Vol. 1, Wien: Austrian Society for Cybernetic Studies , 2006, p. 15-20Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 24.
    Dubois, D. M.
    et al.
    HEC Management School, N1, University of Liège, rue Louvrex 14, B-4000 Liège, Belgium.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Adaptive and rational anticipations in risk management systems and economy2010In: AIP Conference Proceedings, Liege: American Institute of Physics (AIP), 2010, Vol. 1303, p. 398-407Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on computer confirm the feasibility of this approach. Hence, functional differential equations with both retardation and anticipation are found to be useful tools for modelling financial systems. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

  • 25. Dubois, D M
    et al.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Testing learning and decision making in management systems2008In: Cybernetics and Systems 2008, Wien: Austrian Society for Cybernetic Studies , 2008Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Managers are facing an overly complex situation. Delays and interdependencies between different logical levels in the or-ganisation cause unforeseen, and sometimes unwanted, consequences of any decision. By interacting with a multi layered organi-sation simulation model, anyhow, the un-derstanding of anticipation, agility, and learning may be improved and new insights will be generated.

  • 26. Dubois, Daniel
    et al.
    Asproth, Viveca
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Öberg, Lena-Maria
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Simulation Based Decision Processes for Territorial Security2010Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 27. Dubois, D.M.
    et al.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    M2-STAR Software for the Simulation of Management Models with Anticipation and Retardation: Invited paper presented at the 21st European Conference on Operational Research. Reykjavik, July 2-5, 2006.2006Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    A software, Multi-Level Management Support Simulation Tool with Anticipation and Retardation (M2-STAR), was designed to simulate dynamical and anticipatory models of management. M2-STAR is open source so everyone will be able to change and improve the models. M2-STAR is continuously developed and run with free and commonly available development and run-time environments. M2-STAR is a web-application based on an Apache 3 web server and with PHP 4 as programming language. An experimental version can be accessed at http://www.c8systems.com/mad/start.html, with an example of model.

  • 28. Dubois, D.M.
    et al.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    The Paradigm of Anticipation in Management Systems Science2005Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    In practice, managers often make their present time decision in extrapolating past situations for anticipating future situations. In theory however, mathematical models proposed in the literature very often do not take this anticipatory dimension into account. This paper deals with a cybernetic management model with multi-level actions and decision-making on operative, strategic, and normative planning levels in taking into account retardation and anticipation. The solutions vary from stable fixed point to unstable state or chaos, depending on the values of the parameters. The main result of this paper consists in proving that retardation leads to a less stable solution or an unpredictable chaos, while the effect of anticipation is to render the system more stable and so predictable.

  • 29. Eriksson, D.M.
    et al.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    ASTE, Anticipatory Simulation of Tempo-Spatial Enterprise Operations: Invited paper presented at the 21st European Conference on Operational Research. Reykjavik, July 2-5, 2006.2006Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    ASTE - The Anticipatory Simulation of Tempo-Spatial Enterprise Operations - is a computer software package for simulation of complex enterprise operations in form, time, and space. ASTE is build on the STEM modelling language by help of free software components. By making ASTE simulations, dynamic e-logistic operations may be coordinated and managed in an anticipatory way. Further benefits may be obtained by integrating ASTE with a set of established and well proven Operations Research methods.

  • 30. Eriksson, D.M.
    et al.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    STEM, a Language for Modelling of Tempo-Spatial Enterprise Operations: Invited paper presented at the 21st European Conference on Operational Research. Reykjavik, July 2-5, 2006.2006Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    International trade operations are hyper complex systems with stakeholders differencing in, for example, tasks, views, culture, and location. Hence, there is a need for a language helping those actors to communicate. STEM - The Systemic Tempo-Spatial Enterprise Operations Modelling Language - is proposed for guiding a management system�s modelling of its operational system. By conceiving operations in three dimensions: form, time, and space, it is offering an extensive set of modelling constructs. STEM has proved its usefulness in easing the coordination challenges of dynamic e-logistic operations. Further benefits may be obtained by combining STEM with well proven OR methods.

  • 31.
    Haftor, Darek
    et al.
    Stockholmsuniversiet, Företagsekonomi.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Löfstedt, Ulrica
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Nyström, Christina
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Öberg, Lena-Maria
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Provincial Designer Design: A Creative Mix of Hard Restrictions and Soft Visions of an Information Systems Educational Program2011In: IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, ISSN 1868-4238, Vol. 350, p. 399-408Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This paper presents a brief historical account of the unorthodox design of an educational program for information systems development. The design and development of this program was initiated in 1977 at the University College of Östersund, today the Mid Sweden University. The presented account provides a description of the somewhat unusual context of this initiative, which was regarded as a weakness by conventional standards, but became an opportunity in this particular situation. The intellectual inspirations and sources for the design of this program are characterized and followed by a presentation of the very content and operating mode of the educational program. The final part presents the various outcomes that the program gave rise to, in terms of students’ professional careers observed.

  • 32.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    A New Era for Living Systems Theory2008In: Cybernetics and Systems 2008: Proceedings of the 19th European Meeting on Cybernetics and Systems Research, Vienna, Austria, 2007, Wien: Austrian Society for Cybernetic Studies , 2008Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    J. G. Millers Living Systems Theory is a main representative for the older, so called functionalist systems approaches. As such however, it may not be seen as an outdated branch of the systems movement. Contrary, by combining LST by cutting edge technol-ogy, such as transparent (ubiquitous) com-puting, and emerging new research areas, such as anticipation and anticipatory systems, the theory may serve as a powerful and versatile tool in the design and develop-ment of human support systems and man machine symbiotic software. Further, the theory may as well be handled within the frameworks of critical systems thinking, multimethodology and multi dimensional systems thinking.

  • 33.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    CMC, Computer Aided Mastering of System Complexity: Paper presented at the 11th Annual ANZSYS Conference/Managing the Complex, Christchurch, December 5 - 7, 2005.2005Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    Complexity is still challenging human efforts of comprehension and development. This despite considerable research advancements including Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM), Systemic Modelling (SyM), System Matrix Methodology (SMM), Variety Management (VM), and many others. However, by combining those results in different ways further ways of improving human complexity handling are found. Two main development streams are identified as constituting the base for such a progress. First, advances in systemic research on complexity have provided us with the necessary theoretical and conceptual tools. Next, rapid improvements in computer and information technology have created quite new conditions for support of human intellectual work. Therefore, finally the potential of Computer Aided Systems Theory (CAST) for support of human complexity challenges will be assessed.

  • 34.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Designing and Prototyping Towards Anticipatory Applications2000In: Computing Anticipatory Systems: CASYS'99, third international conference, Liège, Belgium, 9-14 August 1999, Melville: American Institute of physics , 2000, p. 31-41Conference paper (Refereed)
  • 35.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Fuzzy Space, a Core Concept in Modelling Human Environments2004In: NAFIPS 2004: ANNUAL MEETING OF THE NORTH AMERICAN FUZZY INFORMATION PROCESSING SOCIETY, VOLS 1AND 2 - FUZZY SETS IN THE HEART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES: Vol. 1 / [ed] Dick, S; Kurgan, L; Musilek, P; Pedrycz, W, IEEE , 2004, p. 346-350Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    By applying fuzzy logic on ordinary geographical space and its spatial objects a fuzzy space (FS) will emerge. In FS gradual changes, smooth transitions, and overlaps in land use, soil types, topography, and other features of relevance for human activities on earth may be handled in a realistic and appropriate way. Hence, FS will significantly improve the possibilities for designing and implementing effective and versatile support systems for regional and urban planning

  • 36.
    Holmberg, Stig
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Systemisk informatik vid Mitthögskolan2004Report (Other academic)
    Abstract [sv]

    Inom informatik studeras områden som ger förutsättningar att med hjälp av datorer och annan informationsteknologi skapa tidsenliga och mänskliga livs- och arbetsmiljöer. Inom Mitthögskolans systemiska informatik, vilken baseras på en systemvetenskaplig epistemologi, fokuseras för närvarande forskningen på framtida digitala samhällen med delområden som lednings- och besluts¬stöds¬sy¬stem, resurshushållningssystem, systemmodellering, systembeskrivning, sy¬stem¬¬simulering, metodik för system¬design och intervention, kunskapshantering och kompetensutveckling, nätverks¬baserade tjänster och webbtillämpningar, upplevelseförstärkning samt system¬kvalitet. Den systemiska informatiken är interdisciplinär i den meningen att med systembegreppet som utgångspunkt så studeras styrnings- och kontrollfrågor, kommunikation för människor och teknik samt datorer, informationsvetenskap och informationsteknologi.

  • 37.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    ACADA: An Anticipatory Design Approach2006In: Casys International journal of computing anticipatory systems, ISSN 1373-5411, Vol. 18, p. 196-Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    System design is still challenging human mental and intellectual capacity. Consequently system design projects often fail. At the same time, anticipation and the anticipatory paradigm are not used in the multiplicity of design methods at hand. As a remedy, the ACADA (Anticipatory Computer Aided Design Approach) is proposed to be added to the methods repertoire. With ACADA it will be possible to test and verify the design before its implementation. ACADA builds on anticipatory modelling and computing in a formal (algorithmic) computer aided system followed by an association from the formal system and its parameters to the concrete living system, i.e. the Human Activity System (HAS) in focus. This way of intervening into living systems, or designing HAS, represents a new application of anticipatory theory, method, and technique.

  • 38.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    An Anticipatory Searchlight Approach2001In: Partial Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference CASYS 2000 on Computing Anticipatory Systems, Liège, Belgium, August 7-12, 2000, D. M. Dubois (Ed.), 2001, p. 70-83Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Anticipatory Modelling and Computing (AMC) is identified as the key difference between Popper�s Bucket Theory of Science (BTS) and his Searchlight Theory of Science (STS). In analysing relevant research about intelligence and knowledge, it is found that computer based AMC may be successfully applied in order to enhance human learning and knowledge handling according to the STS paradigm. A preliminary design of such an Anticipatory Searchlight Engine (ASE) is developed. It is based on an icosahedric fractal model. A computer implementation of ASE is proven quite straightforward and feasible. However, the current one needs additional elaboration.

  • 39.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    MSIS'01v: proceedings of mid Sweden Informatics students conference on AIH - applied informatics for improvement of human life, Campus Bispgården, 6th and 7th of June, 20012001Collection (editor) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This volume contains the proceedings of the First Mid Sweden University Student Conference on Applied Informatics for Improvement of Human Life.

  • 40.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    MSIS'02v: proceedings of mid Sweden Informatics students conference on AIH - applied informatics for improvement of human life, Campus Bispgården, 30th and 31st of May, 20022002Conference proceedings (editor) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This volume contains the proceedings of the Third Mid Sweden University Student Conference on Applied Informatics for Improvement of Human Life.

  • 41.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    MSIS'03: Proceedings of Mid Sweden Informatics Student Conference on AIH2001Conference proceedings (editor) (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    This volume contains the proceedings of the First Mid Sweden University Student Conference on Applied Informatics for Improvement of Human Life.

  • 42.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    OR2000; Challenges for the New Millennium2001In: Understanding Complexity, London: Kluwer Academic / Plenum Publishers , 2001, p. 292-Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 43.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Soft anticipatory computing for spatial decision support2002In: CASYS : International Journal of Computing Anticipatory Systems, ISSN 1373-5411, Vol. 13, p. 182-197Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Geographical space is modelled according to main principles of systemic modelling and the anticipatory paradigm. In this way a computer based prototype supporting spatial decisions and the management of the physical environment is established. In using the prototype with real world historical data it is demonstrated that an anticipatory approach may ameliorate spatial planning and decision making. However, before being fully operational the model has to be improved in several ways. Further, attitudes, insights, and working skills of the physical planners and decision-makers have to be improved in order to take full advantage of the anticipatory approach.

  • 44.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Systematic challenges in anticipating anticipation2005In: International Conference on Systems Research, Informatics and Cybernetics ; 16 (Baden-Baden) : 2004.07.29-08.05 International Conference on Systems Research, Informatics and Cybernetics ; 17 (Baden-Baden) : 2005.08.01-07, Windsor, Ontario: Int.Inst.for Adv.Stud.in Syst.Res.and Cybern. , 2005, p. 59-Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Both Anticipation and Systemics (Systems Science) are relatively new scientific endeavours. A great group of eminent scholars, however, have already produced sig¬nificant scientific contributions within both areas. Hence, a first obvious question may be if those new fields represent radically different directions or if they have minor or greater parts in common? Second, evidently it is vital for the future developments of both fields to clarify in what ways and to what degrees they may synergistically co-evolve. In so doing, it is here found that systemic design may be used in developing an anticipating anticipatory system. With other words, with help of systemic design methodology a meta-anticipatory system will emerge.

  • 45.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    SYSTEMIC LEARNING WITH A SEARCHLIGHT APPROACH2002In: SYSTEMS THEORY AND PRACTICE IN THE KNOWLEDGE AGE, New York: Kluwer , 2002, p. 147-154Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 46.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Systemic research on competence and competence development in SMEs2001In: Systems research and behavioral science, ISSN 1092-7026, E-ISSN 1099-1743, Vol. 18, p. 101-102Article in journal (Other academic)
  • 47.
    Holmberg, Stig C.
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Taking Syntegrity-4 from Assumption Mode to Reflection Mode2001In: Systems research and behavioral science, ISSN 1092-7026, E-ISSN 1099-1743, Vol. 18, no 2, p. 127-135Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    A model, Syntegrity-4, for competence development in small and medium-seized enterprises (SMEs) is designed. Syntegrity-4 builds on the assumptions that competence development is a continuous activity that is best undertaken in a network with cooperation between different types of actors. Further, it is presumed that systemics and informatics have much to provide in increasing the skills of individual workers as well as the workforce as a whole. In working with the employees in a number of enterprises those assumptions have at large proven to be correct. However, the methodology in its present form is not good enough. No drastic and long-lasting positive effects could be observed in the cooperating enterprises. Hence, a group of further steps for improving and complementing Syntegrity-4 are identified.

  • 48.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    The CFD Tool; A Prototype for Handling the Time Dimension in Complex Multi-Criteria Spatial Decision Making2000In: ISSS 44th Annual Meeting, 2000Conference paper (Other academic)
  • 49.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    Transforming governmental systems by systemic artefacts2003In: Proceedings.47th Annual Conference of the International Society for the Systems Sciences ISSS'03, 2003Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Governmental as well as other public systems are facing new challenges due to, among other things, current information technology trends and changes in peoples life styles. Hence, ideas of web services for the citizens and agencies accessible over the net 24-hours per day are born. However, in order to implement this new type of net-based services a set of accessibility, integrity and security problems and hindrances are to be overcome. Further, the methodological problems are far from unproblematic. Neither the artefact approach nor the approach of social systems design seem to be directly applicable. Instead, an approach called pragmatic systemics is proposed. At last, organisational transformation is not only a technical problem. Seen in a systemic perspective, the technological changes and the introduction of new artefacts have to be carefully balanced with changes in human competence, organisational structures, and system culture.

  • 50.
    Holmberg, Stig C
    Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
    WIKITEGRITY; Team Syntegrity in the WIKI World2007Conference paper (Other academic)
    Abstract [en]

    The task to create a future eSociety is best achieved with a third generation system design approach, i.e. everyone who is going to be affected by the future system also has to take part in its design. By combining the Team Syntegrity Protocol with a WIKI tool into WIKITEGRITY a means for this design by the people is created. The resulting WIKITEGRITY impose some restrictions but also provides new possibilities. After a first field test WIKITEGRITY has to be further improved and refined into a true community cybernetic vehicle.

12 1 - 50 of 70
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