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Modeling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information and Communication systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0310-0018
Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap, Stockholms universitet.
2015 (English)In: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), Springer, 2015, 135-146 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In this paper we present a work process with associated operational research modeling and analysis tools for the policy formulation stage of the Lindblom policy cycle process model. The approach exploits the use of causal maps for problem structuring and scenario generation of policy options together with decision analysis for evaluating generated scenarios taking preferences of decision makers and stakeholders into account. The benefits of interest when exploiting this integrated modeling approach is to enable for; (i) problem structuring and facilitating understanding and communication of a complex policy problem, (ii) simulation of policy consequences and identification of a smaller set of policy options from a possible very large set of possible options, and (iii) structured decision evaluation of the generated alternative policy options.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2015. 135-146 p.
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743 ; 9249
Keyword [en]
Policy analysis, Impact assessment, Policy modelling, Problem structuring, Dynamic simulation, Causal mapping, Scenario planning, Decision analysis
National Category
Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-25855DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-22500-5_11ISI: 000363261300011Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84944722929ISBN: 978-3-319-22499-2 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-25855DiVA: diva2:852809
Conference
7th IFIP 8.5 International Conference on Electronic Participation, ePart 2015; Thessaloniki; Greece; 30 August 2015 through 2 September 2015; Code 139699
Available from: 2015-09-10 Created: 2015-09-10 Last updated: 2016-01-14Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf