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Economic voting: The effect of political context, volatility and turnout on voters' assignment of responsibility
Department of Political Science, Åbo Akademi University, Finland.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2072-317X
2004 (English)In: European Journal of Political Research, ISSN 0304-4130, E-ISSN 1475-6765, Vol. 43, no 5, 749-767 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study analyses macroeconomic conditions and the electoral fortune of incumbents in 21 parliamentary Western countries between 1950 and 1997 in 266 national elections. Voters’ assignment of responsibility for the state of the national economy is assumed to vary according to the context of the election. Building on previous research, the importance of the political context – clarity of responsibility and availability of alternatives – is analysed. The study also breaks new ground by introducing two new contexts of importance: volatility, seen from a systemic perspective, and the trend in turnout. The contextual hypothesis is confirmed. The universal economic effect as such is very weak indeed. However, given a favourable political and institutional environment (clear responsibility structure and availability of alternatives), an economic effect appears. Tests including the new contexts created on the basis of behavioural patterns in the electorate (system volatility and turnout trend) identify elections where the economic effects are even stronger.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2004. Vol. 43, no 5, 749-767 p.
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalization Studies)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-25369DOI: 10.1111/j.0304-4130.2004.00173.xOAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-25369DiVA: diva2:828499
Available from: 2015-06-30 Created: 2015-06-30 Last updated: 2015-07-02Bibliographically approved

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Bengtsson, Åsa
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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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