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Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: A CGE analysis
Department of Economics, Mekelle University, Adi-Haqui Campus, P.O. Box 451, Mekelle, Tigrai, Ethiopia.
Department of Economics, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Human Sciences, Department of Business, Economics and Law. Lulea Univ Technol, Dept Business Adm Technol & Social Sci, Lulea, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7206-6568
Department of Economics, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.
2016 (English)In: Environment and Development Economics, ISSN 1355-770X, E-ISSN 1469-4395, Vol. 21, no 2, 205-225 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The paper analyzes the economic impacts of climate change-induced fluctuations on the performance of Ethiopia's agriculture, using a countrywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We model the impacts on agriculture using a Ricardian model, where current agricultural production is modelled as a function of temperature and precipitation, among other things, and where future agriculture is assumed to follow the same climate function. The effect of overall climate change is projected to be relatively benign until approximately 2030, but will become considerably worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, over a 50-year period, the projected reduction in agricultural productivity may lead to reductions in average income of some 20 per cent compared with the outcome that would have prevailed in the absence of climate change. This indicates that adaptation policies – both government planned and those that ease autonomous adaptation by farmers – will be crucial for Ethiopia's future development.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 21, no 2, 205-225 p.
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-24794DOI: 10.1017/S1355770X15000170ISI: 000371644600004Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84959493881OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-24794DiVA: diva2:800399
Funder
Swedish Research Council FormasSida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
Note

Published online 5 June 2015.

Available from: 2015-04-03 Created: 2015-04-03 Last updated: 2017-04-10Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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  • Other style
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Output format
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