Managing natural resources to minimize impacts driving global change requires system understanding. The ecological systems are affected by different human interventions e.g. through the use of natural resources and generation of emissions. The ‘ecological footprint’ of a provided service can differ significantly according to both the choice of technology as well as the interactions of a specific technology option within the overall technical systems. Such interactions within the technical system may have significant impact on the modeling results regarding ecological consequences for a specific technical option. These interactions are important to understand for good decision support and policy making in the context of global change. This will be illustrated by the case of using air-to-air heat pumps for space heating in Sweden.
In recent years, air-to-air heat pumps have been the most sold technology for space heating in residential buildings in Sweden. Newly produced air-to-air heat pumps can provide heat energy from outdoor air at temperature as low as -20°C. A drawback of air-to-air heat pumps is their reduction in efficiency as the outdoor air become colder. In this study, the use of air-to air heat pumps is compared with other commercial technologies integrated in the Swedish and European energy system.
Results show that although air-to-air heat pumps are presently very cost effective for the end user and give relatively low final energy demand for space heating by comparison to other commercial technologies, seen integrated in the Swedish and European energy system, air-to-air heat pump are inferior regarding the use of resources and securing peak load power demand. Thus, by modeling the performance of air-to-air heat pumps first by including only its interaction with the building and than by including its interaction with the larger energy system suggest that there is presently a micro economic driver for the local investor pointing in the opposite direction regarding management of natural energy resources compared to what would be desirable in the context of global change.