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Generalised Risk Constraints in Decision Trees with Second-Order Probabilities
Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media. (ValIT)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0310-0018
2012 (English)In: Advances in Economics, Risk Management, Political and Law Science / [ed] D. Pavelkova, J. Strouhal, M. Pasekova, WSEAS Press , 2012, p. 376-383Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Recently, representations and methods analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically impreciseprobabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expectedutility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WSEAS Press , 2012. p. 376-383
Keyword [en]
Decision analysis, risk analysis, interval probability, second-order probability, decision rule, utility theory
National Category
Computer Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-17158ISBN: 978-1-61804-123-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-17158DiVA, id: diva2:558703
Conference
1st WSEAS International Conference on Risk Assessment, Management and Mitigation
Funder
Formas
Available from: 2012-10-04 Created: 2012-10-04 Last updated: 2012-10-05Bibliographically approved

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http://www.wseas.us/e-library/conferences/2012/Zlin/EPRI/EPRI-62.pdf

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Larsson, Aron

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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  • Other style
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  • de-DE
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  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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