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Risk Assessment of New Pricing Strategies in the District Heating Market: A Case Study at Sundsvall Energi AB
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Natural Sciences, Engineering and Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6983-3121
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0310-0018
2010 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, Vol. 38, no 5, 2171-2178 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The price structure of district heating has been no major scientific issue for the last decades in energy related research. However, today trends in district heating pricing tend to move towards a more customer oriented approach with fixed prices under a longer period, leading to a more complex price structure. If a district heating supplier offers district heating with fixed prices in order to compete with similar electricity offers, the financial risk of the fixed price product is significantly higher than the risk of an ordinary variable cost offer. In contrary to an electricity seller, the district heating company can not transfer all of the risk of fixed prices offer to the financial market, instead the company is thrown upon its own ability to handle the risk by, e.g., hedging its own energy purchase. However, all uncertainties can not be coped with in this manner. Thus, there is a need for a methodology that can be used to estimate the financial risk of different price structures and to value different opportunities to reduce the risk. In this article we propose a methodology, implemented in a prototype software, to evaluate the risk associated with new price structures in district heating.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2010. Vol. 38, no 5, 2171-2178 p.
Keyword [en]
District heating; Risk assment; Pricing
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-6608DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.064ISI: 000276289500014Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-77649190136Local ID: 4936OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-6608DiVA: diva2:31647
Projects
STC
Available from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2011-01-19Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Despite the fact that unguided decision making might lead to inefficient and nonoptimal decisions, decisions made at organizational levels seldom utilise decisionanalytical tools. Several gaps between the decision-makers and the computer baseddecision tools exist, and a main problem in managerial decision-making involves the lack of information and precise objective data, i.e. uncertainty and imprecision may be inherent in the decision situation. We believe that this problem might be overcome by providing computer based decision tools capable of handling the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making. At present, nearly all decision analytic software is only able to handle precise input, and no known software is capable of handling full scale imprecision, i.e. imprecise probabilities, values and weights, in the form of interval and comparative statements. There are, however, some theories which are able to handle some kind of uncertainty, and which deal with computational and implementational issues, but if they are never actually operationalised, they are of little real use for a decision-maker. Therefore, a natural question is how a reasonable decision analytical framework can be built based on prevailing interval methods, thus dealing with the problems of uncertain and imprecise input? Further, will the interval approach actually prove useful? The framework presented herein handles theoretical foundations for, and implementations of, imprecise multi-level trees, multi-criteria, risk analysis, together with several different evaluation options. The framework supports interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, as well as comparative statements, also allowing for mixing probabilistic and multi-criteria decisions. The framework has also been field tested in a number of studies, proving the usefulness of the interval approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2007. 50 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 21
Keyword
decision tree, decision analysis, decision tool, imprecise reasoning, probability
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7147 (URN)978-91-85317-49-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-11-29 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2009-02-13Bibliographically approved
2. Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
2008 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2008. 79 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 61
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7803 (URN)978-91-86073-13-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-12-16 Created: 2008-12-16 Last updated: 2011-02-06Bibliographically approved

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