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Distribution of expected utility in decision trees
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0665-1889
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media. (STC)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0310-0018
Responsible organisation
2007 (English)In: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, ISSN 0888-613X, E-ISSN 1873-4731, Vol. 46, no 2, 387-407 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Evaluation of decision trees in which uncertain information is present is complicated. Especially when the tree has some depth, i.e. consists of more than one level, the effects of the choice of representation and evaluation procedures are significant. Second-order representation and evaluation may significantly increase a decisionmaker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. Furthermore, due to the effects on the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the Gamma-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily pessimistic as the belief in neighbourhoods of points near interval boundaries is usually lower than in neighbourhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed. The results in this paper apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order information, such as standard decision trees or probabilistic networks using only first-order concepts, for example upper and lower bounds. Furthermore, the results also apply to other, non-probabilistic weighted trees such as multi-criteria weight trees.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 46, no 2, 387-407 p.
Keyword [en]
Decision analysis, second-order probabilities, utility theory, decision evaluation
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-4007DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2006.09.012ISI: 000250898800009Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-34648822919Local ID: 4477OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-4007DiVA: diva2:29039
Available from: 2008-12-15 Created: 2008-12-15 Last updated: 2016-09-26Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
2008 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2008. 79 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 61
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7803 (URN)978-91-86073-13-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-12-16 Created: 2008-12-16 Last updated: 2011-02-06Bibliographically approved

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