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Preference Ordering Algorithms with Imprecise Expectations
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media. (STC)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0310-0018
Responsible organisation
2006 (English)In: Proceedings of IMECS 2006, 2006, 750-755 p.Conference paper, (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In imprecise domains the preference order of the alternatives is not straightforward to establish, due to possible overlapping of expected values among the alternatives. Nevertheless, such rankings are useful in decision analysis applications, as obtaining a ranking of alternatives is a way to gain an overview of the situation. The rankings presented in this paper represent overviews of a preference order of the alternatives based on their respective expected utility. The ranking can be either ordinal, focusing only on the ordering, or cardinal, also taking the differences in expected utility into account. The first set of procedures discussed is a cardinal ranking, which provides the user with expected utility intervals of the evaluated alternatives. This yields a more extensive overview with more detailed information. The second set of procedures discussed ordinal rankings of the alternatives based on three different approaches; 1) contraction based ranking, 2) intersection based ranking, and 3) focal point based ranking with indifference level. Finally, we show that regardless of ranking method their respective maximal elements all conform to the maximal element of the ordinal ranking. Hence, if the intention is to find a maximal element, it is sufficient to use either pointwise cardinal ranking or ordinal ranking with zero as indifference level.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2006. 750-755 p.
Keyword [en]
Decision analysis, alternative ranking, utility theory, imprecise information
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3775ISI: 000241357500140Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84888212505Local ID: 4068ISBN: 988-986713-3 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-3775DiVA: diva2:28807
Conference
International Multiconference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, Jun 20-22, 2006, Kowloon, China
Available from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2016-09-26Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Despite the fact that unguided decision making might lead to inefficient and nonoptimal decisions, decisions made at organizational levels seldom utilise decisionanalytical tools. Several gaps between the decision-makers and the computer baseddecision tools exist, and a main problem in managerial decision-making involves the lack of information and precise objective data, i.e. uncertainty and imprecision may be inherent in the decision situation. We believe that this problem might be overcome by providing computer based decision tools capable of handling the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making. At present, nearly all decision analytic software is only able to handle precise input, and no known software is capable of handling full scale imprecision, i.e. imprecise probabilities, values and weights, in the form of interval and comparative statements. There are, however, some theories which are able to handle some kind of uncertainty, and which deal with computational and implementational issues, but if they are never actually operationalised, they are of little real use for a decision-maker. Therefore, a natural question is how a reasonable decision analytical framework can be built based on prevailing interval methods, thus dealing with the problems of uncertain and imprecise input? Further, will the interval approach actually prove useful? The framework presented herein handles theoretical foundations for, and implementations of, imprecise multi-level trees, multi-criteria, risk analysis, together with several different evaluation options. The framework supports interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, as well as comparative statements, also allowing for mixing probabilistic and multi-criteria decisions. The framework has also been field tested in a number of studies, proving the usefulness of the interval approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2007. 50 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 21
Keyword
decision tree, decision analysis, decision tool, imprecise reasoning, probability
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7147 (URN)978-91-85317-49-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-11-29 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2009-02-13Bibliographically approved
2. Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
2008 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2008. 79 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 61
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7803 (URN)978-91-86073-13-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-12-16 Created: 2008-12-16 Last updated: 2011-02-06Bibliographically approved

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