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Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Software for Uncertain and Imprecise Information
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
Responsible organisation
2006 (English)In: Proceedings of the 11th Annual Conference of Asia Pacific Decision Sciences Institute - INNOVATION & SERVICE EXCELLENCE FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, 2006, 342-345 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a multi-criteria decision tool built on theories of uncertainty representation and evaluation. The tool supports interval probabilities, interval values (utili¬ties), interval criteria weights, as well as com¬para¬tive statements, not requiring input on single variables, but rather allowing interval statements on differences between variables. The user input is represented as constraints to the solution set of the variables representing the decision problem. The problem is then evaluated using several available evaluation methods each giving a different perspective on the decision problem modeled. Instead of applying separate sensitivity analyses on top of the evalua¬tion, it tries to incorporate the sensitivity analyses into the repre¬sentation, making uncertainty a first-class citizen in the model. The support of interval and comparative state¬ments, in addition to embedded sensitivity analyses and optionally using separate probabilistic event trees for each criterion, makes the tool, to our knowledge, the first of its kind.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2006. 342-345 p.
Keyword [en]
decision tool, multi-criteria, decision analysis, imprecise information
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3425ISI: 000239342800092Local ID: 3419OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-3425DiVA: diva2:28457
Conference
11th Annual Conference of the Asia-Pacific-Decision-Sciences-Institute, Jun 14-18, 2006, Kowloon, China
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2008-09-30 Last updated: 2010-07-15Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Despite the fact that unguided decision making might lead to inefficient and nonoptimal decisions, decisions made at organizational levels seldom utilise decisionanalytical tools. Several gaps between the decision-makers and the computer baseddecision tools exist, and a main problem in managerial decision-making involves the lack of information and precise objective data, i.e. uncertainty and imprecision may be inherent in the decision situation. We believe that this problem might be overcome by providing computer based decision tools capable of handling the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making. At present, nearly all decision analytic software is only able to handle precise input, and no known software is capable of handling full scale imprecision, i.e. imprecise probabilities, values and weights, in the form of interval and comparative statements. There are, however, some theories which are able to handle some kind of uncertainty, and which deal with computational and implementational issues, but if they are never actually operationalised, they are of little real use for a decision-maker. Therefore, a natural question is how a reasonable decision analytical framework can be built based on prevailing interval methods, thus dealing with the problems of uncertain and imprecise input? Further, will the interval approach actually prove useful? The framework presented herein handles theoretical foundations for, and implementations of, imprecise multi-level trees, multi-criteria, risk analysis, together with several different evaluation options. The framework supports interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, as well as comparative statements, also allowing for mixing probabilistic and multi-criteria decisions. The framework has also been field tested in a number of studies, proving the usefulness of the interval approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2007. 50 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 21
Keyword
decision tree, decision analysis, decision tool, imprecise reasoning, probability
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7147 (URN)978-91-85317-49-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-11-29 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2009-02-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
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