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Decision analysis with multiple objectives in a framework for evaluating imprecision
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media. (STC)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0310-0018
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0665-1889
Responsible organisation
2005 (English)In: International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, ISSN 0218-4885, Vol. 13, no 5, 495-509 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a decision tree evaluation method for analyzing multi-attribute decisions under risk, where information is numerically imprecise. The approach extends the use of additive and multiplicative utility functions for supporting evaluation of imprecise statements, relaxing requirements for precise estimates of decision parameters. Information is modeled in convex sets of utility and probability measures restricted by closed intervals. Evaluation is done relative to a set of rules, generalizing the concept of admissibility, computationally handled through optimization of aggregated utility functions. Pros and cons of two approaches, and tradeoffs in selecting a utility function, are discussed.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2005. Vol. 13, no 5, 495-509 p.
Keyword [en]
Decision analysis, multi-attribute utility theory, decision tools; imprecise information
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3398ISI: 000232867500003Local ID: 3468OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-3398DiVA: diva2:28430
Conference
17th International FLAIRS Conference, May 17-19, 2004, miami Beach, FL
Note
17th International FLAIRS Conference, May 17-19, 2004, Miami Beach, FLAvailable from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2011-07-21Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Despite the fact that unguided decision making might lead to inefficient and nonoptimal decisions, decisions made at organizational levels seldom utilise decisionanalytical tools. Several gaps between the decision-makers and the computer baseddecision tools exist, and a main problem in managerial decision-making involves the lack of information and precise objective data, i.e. uncertainty and imprecision may be inherent in the decision situation. We believe that this problem might be overcome by providing computer based decision tools capable of handling the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making. At present, nearly all decision analytic software is only able to handle precise input, and no known software is capable of handling full scale imprecision, i.e. imprecise probabilities, values and weights, in the form of interval and comparative statements. There are, however, some theories which are able to handle some kind of uncertainty, and which deal with computational and implementational issues, but if they are never actually operationalised, they are of little real use for a decision-maker. Therefore, a natural question is how a reasonable decision analytical framework can be built based on prevailing interval methods, thus dealing with the problems of uncertain and imprecise input? Further, will the interval approach actually prove useful? The framework presented herein handles theoretical foundations for, and implementations of, imprecise multi-level trees, multi-criteria, risk analysis, together with several different evaluation options. The framework supports interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, as well as comparative statements, also allowing for mixing probabilistic and multi-criteria decisions. The framework has also been field tested in a number of studies, proving the usefulness of the interval approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2007. 50 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 21
Keyword
decision tree, decision analysis, decision tool, imprecise reasoning, probability
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7147 (URN)978-91-85317-49-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-11-29 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2009-02-13Bibliographically approved
2. Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
2008 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2008. 79 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 61
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7803 (URN)978-91-86073-13-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-12-16 Created: 2008-12-16 Last updated: 2011-02-06Bibliographically approved
3. Graph decision models in a computational decision analytic framework
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Graph decision models in a computational decision analytic framework
2006 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mittuniversitetet, 2006. 123 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University licentiate thesis, ISSN 1652-8948 ; 10
Keyword
Decision Analysis, Imprecise Reasoning, Decision Trees, Influence Diagrams, Criteria Hierarchy Trees
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-5873 (URN)4033 (Local ID)91-85317-18-7 (ISBN)4033 (Archive number)4033 (OAI)
Presentation
(English)
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2009-05-11 Last updated: 2011-02-06Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
  • apa
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