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Optimal upgrading of forest road networks: scenario analysis vs stochastic modelling
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Engineering, Physics and Mathematics.
Responsible organisation
2007 (English)In: Forest Policy and Economics, ISSN 1389-9341, E-ISSN 1872-7050, Vol. 9, no 8, 1071-1078 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A two-stage stochastic model with binary choice in the first stage has been developed to optimise the upgrading of a real-world forest road network, geographically located in the middle of Sweden. We have compared the model with solutions to the same problem from deterministic scenario analysis. Upgrade policies can be achieved swiftly using both approaches, since the road network is of moderate size. However, a deterministic approach is considerably faster when larger problems are involved. The study here, furthermore, indicates that deterministic scenario analysis provides us with quick, near-optimal solutions to the stochastic model, which are of reasonable good quality. We conclude that the model used here is rather insensitive to uncertainty in critical period length, such as the length of spring thaw, at least when applied to the medium-sized problem presented here. Nevertheless, we strongly recommend the use of the stochastic model whenever possible, since the stochastic and deterministic solutions differ, due to the hedging effect in the stochastic solution.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007. Vol. 9, no 8, 1071-1078 p.
Keyword [en]
Binary first stage decisions, Forest road investments, Long-term planning, Option value, Two-stage stochastic programming
National Category
Mathematics Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-2860DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2006.10.005ISI: 000246970400015Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-34247499851Local ID: 2294OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-2860DiVA: diva2:27892
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2009-11-02 Last updated: 2016-10-05Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf