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Decision Evaluation of Three Flood Management Strategies.
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0665-1889
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
2003 (English)In: FLAIRS' 03 Recent Advances in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the 16th International Flairs Conference, Menlo Park, Calif.: AAAI Press , 2003, 491-495 p.Conference paper, (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

This article describes the application of computational decision analytic techniques for a national policy decision. It constitutes an example of the increasing use of modern computational decision methods to assist in decision-making in society. An integrated flood catastrophe model is presented as well as some results of a case study made in the Upper Tisza region in north-eastern Hungary, viz. the Palad-Csecsei basin. Background data was provided through the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and complemented by interviews with different stakeholders in the region. Based upon these data, where a large degree of uncertainty is prevailing, we demonstrate how an implementation of a simulation and decision analytical model can provide insights into the effects of imposing different policy options for a flood risk management program in the region. We focus herein primarily on general options for designing a public/private insurance and reinsurance system for Hungary. It should, however, be emphasized that the main purpose of this article is not to provide any definite recommendations, but rather to present a methodology for handling a set of policy packages with the aim of gaining a consensus among stakeholders.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Menlo Park, Calif.: AAAI Press , 2003. 491-495 p.
Keyword [en]
decision analysis
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-1674Local ID: 313ISBN: 1-57735-177-0 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-1674DiVA: diva2:26706
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2008-09-30Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Despite the fact that unguided decision making might lead to inefficient and nonoptimal decisions, decisions made at organizational levels seldom utilise decisionanalytical tools. Several gaps between the decision-makers and the computer baseddecision tools exist, and a main problem in managerial decision-making involves the lack of information and precise objective data, i.e. uncertainty and imprecision may be inherent in the decision situation. We believe that this problem might be overcome by providing computer based decision tools capable of handling the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making. At present, nearly all decision analytic software is only able to handle precise input, and no known software is capable of handling full scale imprecision, i.e. imprecise probabilities, values and weights, in the form of interval and comparative statements. There are, however, some theories which are able to handle some kind of uncertainty, and which deal with computational and implementational issues, but if they are never actually operationalised, they are of little real use for a decision-maker. Therefore, a natural question is how a reasonable decision analytical framework can be built based on prevailing interval methods, thus dealing with the problems of uncertain and imprecise input? Further, will the interval approach actually prove useful? The framework presented herein handles theoretical foundations for, and implementations of, imprecise multi-level trees, multi-criteria, risk analysis, together with several different evaluation options. The framework supports interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, as well as comparative statements, also allowing for mixing probabilistic and multi-criteria decisions. The framework has also been field tested in a number of studies, proving the usefulness of the interval approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2007. 50 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 21
Keyword
decision tree, decision analysis, decision tool, imprecise reasoning, probability
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7147 (URN)978-91-85317-49-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-11-29 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2009-02-13Bibliographically approved
2. Imprecise information in multi-level decision trees
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Imprecise information in multi-level decision trees
2004 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The information available to decision makers is often vague and imprecise, and various methods based

on interval estimates of probabilities and utilities have been proposed to deal with this. The discussion

has, however, mostly evolved around representation, and much less has been done to take into

consideration the evaluation, and also computational and implementation aspects has been left out.

The Delta method for handling vague and imprecise information is one of the most elaborated

approaches in its category and is therefore a reasonable starting point for this thesis. However, one

major disadvantage is that the approach only handles single-level decision trees and cannot nontrivially

be extended to handle multi-level trees. The capability of handling multi-level trees is

important, since it appears naturally in many real-life situations.

The purpose of this thesis is to present a generalization allowing for multi-level trees and imprecise

information, thus extending the Delta approach. The extension is implemented in the decision software

DecideIT, which consequently allows for interval statements and value comparisons between different

consequences, in the form of multi-level trees. Five papers are attached to the thesis. Two of these

present the necessary algorithms and an implementation employing them. The third and fourth papers

demonstrate how decision problems can be modelled and evaluated taking into account the imprecise

input data. A fifth paper presents how the method can be extended to a multi-attribute decision tree

evaluation method.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mittuniversitetet, 2004. 84 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University licentiate thesis, ISSN 1652-8948 ; 7
Keyword
multi-level, decision tree, decision analysis, decision tool, imprecise
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-9340 (URN)91-87908-88-3 (ISBN)
Presentation
(English)
Supervisors
Available from: 2009-07-10 Created: 2009-07-10 Last updated: 2009-07-10Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
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