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Development of Elicitation Methods for Managerial Decision Support
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media.
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Decision‐makers in organisations and businesses make numerous decisions every day, and these decisions are expected to be based on facts and carried out in a rational manner. However, most decisions are not based on precise information or careful analysis due to several reasons. People are, e.g., unable to behave rationally as a result of their experiences, socialisation, and additionally, because humans possess fairly limited capacities for processing information in an objective manner. In order to circumvent this human incapacity to handle decision situations in a rational manner, especially those involving risk and uncertainty, a widespread suggestion, at least in managerial decision making, is to take advantage of support in the form of decision support systems. One possibility involves decision analytical tools, but they are, almost without exception, not efficiently employed in organisations and businesses. It appears that one reason for this is the high demands the tools place on the decision‐maker in a variety of ways, e.g., by presupposing that reliable input data is obtainable by an exogenous process. Even though the reliability of current decision analytic tools is highly dependent on the quality of the input data, they rarely contain methods for eliciting data from the users. The problem focused on in this thesis is the unavailability and inefficiency of methods for eliciting decision information from the users. The aim is to identify problem areas regarding the elicitation of decision data in real decision making processes, and to propose elicitation methods that take people’s natural choice strategies and natural behaviour into account. In this effort, we have identified a conceptual gap between the decision‐makers, the decision models, and the decision analytical tools, consisting of seven gap components. The gap components are of three main categories (of which elicitation is one). In order to study elicitation problems, a number of empirical studies, involving more than 400 subjects in total, have been carried out in Sweden and Brazil. An iterative research approach has been adopted and a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods has been used. Findings made in this thesis include the fact that decision‐makers have serious problems in many decision situations due to not having access to accurate and relevant data in the first place, and secondly, not having the means for retrieving such data in a proper manner, i.e. lacking elicitation methods for this purpose. Employing traditional elicitation methods in this realm yield results that reveal an inertia gap, i.e. an intrinsic inertia in people’s natural behaviour to shift between differently framed prospects, and different groups of decisionmakers displaying different choice patterns. Since existing elicitation methods are unable to deal with the inertia, we propose a class of methods to take advantage of this natural behaviour, and also suggest a representation for the elicited information. An important element in the proposed class of methods is also that we must be able to fine‐tune methods and measuring instruments in order to fit into different types of decision situations, user groups, and choice behaviours.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2007.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 24
Keywords [en]
elicitation methods, probability and utility assessment, interval estimations, Business Intelligence, prescriptive methods, risk elicitaion, decision, decision making, managerial decision making, decision making under risk, BI, decision theory, management
Keywords [sv]
beslutsproblematik, tumregler, intuitivt beslutsfattande, intuition beslut, decision problem, beslutsanalys, beslutsteori, ledarskap, management, beslutsfattande, magkänsla, beslutsproblem, BI, Business Intelligence
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-40ISBN: 978-91-85317-53-0 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-40DiVA, id: diva2:1995
Public defence
2007-06-08, L111, Lilla Bryggeriet, Mittuniversitetet, Sundsvall, 10:00 (English)
Supervisors
Available from: 2007-11-29 Created: 2007-11-29 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Conceptualissation of the Gap between Managerial Decision Making and the Use of Decision analytical Tools
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Conceptualissation of the Gap between Managerial Decision Making and the Use of Decision analytical Tools
(English)Manuscript (Other academic)
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-371 (URN)
Available from: 2007-11-29 Created: 2009-02-17 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
2. Decision making under Risk and Uncertainty
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Decision making under Risk and Uncertainty
2006 (English)In: IAENG International Journal of Computer Science, ISSN 1819-656X, E-ISSN 1819-9224, Vol. 32, no 4Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-372 (URN)
Available from: 2007-11-29 Created: 2009-03-24 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
3. A study on Framing Effects in Risk Elicitation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A study on Framing Effects in Risk Elicitation
2005 (English)In: Proceedings - International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, CIMCA 2005 and International Conference on Intelligent Agents, Web Technologies and Internet, IEEE conference proceedings, 2005, p. 689-694, article id 1631344Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Decision analysis tools are an effective way of structuring complex decision situations. However, their failure to incorporate reliable methods for elicitation is a shortcoming that needs to be dealt with. Since different elicitation methods have shown to yield different results, it is important to more thoroughly emphasize on aspects that can reduce biased results. The development of methods that explicitly recognize framing problems and aim to reduce these effects are needed. This study deals with framing problems within elicitation and how to reduce discrepancies between normative and descriptive behaviour in elicited risk data. The results indicate that the extra transitional state in one of the presentation formats, here referred to as Trade for, generated data that deviated more from normative rules when participants experienced gain prospects. On the other hand, for loss prospects the format more in line with normative rules depended on the presentation order of probabilities.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE conference proceedings, 2005
Keywords
Risk elicitation
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-373 (URN)2-s2.0-33847216217 (Scopus ID)3306 (Local ID)3306 (Archive number)3306 (OAI)
Conference
International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, CIMCA 2005 and International Conference on Intelligent Agents, Web Technologies and Internet Commerce, IAWTIC 2005; Vienna; Austria; 28 November 2005 through 30 November 2005
Available from: 2007-11-29 Created: 2009-03-24 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
4. How different Choice Strategies Can Affect the Risk Elicitation Process
Open this publication in new window or tab >>How different Choice Strategies Can Affect the Risk Elicitation Process
2006 (English)In: IAENG International Journal of Computer Science, ISSN 1819-656X, E-ISSN 1819-9224, Vol. 32, no 4, p. 460-465Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a study focusing on deviations from normative behavior in risk elicitation. Such deviations haveimplications on the process of eliciting reliable input data in applications of decision analysis. No existing elicitation method seems to be universally useful based on the findings made in this study. Since people obviously do not act in accordance with the normative rules, and different choice strategies have been identified, a prescriptive approach with individual assistance of the decision makers in the elicitation process thus seems to benecessary.

Keywords
Decision analysis, elicitation, risk behavior
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-374 (URN)
Available from: 2007-11-29 Created: 2009-03-24 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
5. Risk Elicitation in Precise and Imprecise Domains: A Comparative Study, Sweden and Brazil
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk Elicitation in Precise and Imprecise Domains: A Comparative Study, Sweden and Brazil
2007 (English)In: CIMCA 2006: International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, Jointly with IAWTIC 2006: International Conference on Intelligent Agents Web Technologies ..., 2007, article id 4052658Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a comparative study between two groups from different cultural contexts, Sweden and Brazil, when choosing among risky prospects. The study explores whether there are differences in choice behaviours when the uncertainty in the prospects is expressed as interval estimates instead of the traditional use of point estimates, as well as when prospects are displayed with and without expected monetary values. Both groups display similar choice behaviours when they choose among prospects where uncertainty is expressed as point vs. interval estimates, whereas the Brazilian respondents are more affected by EMV information. The results indicate that the employment of intervals to represent uncertainty can be beneficial and could facilitate the elicitation part in the use and development of decision analytical tools. Furthermore, there is a need for more flexible tools, more adapted to a prescriptive approach, since people from different cultural contexts seem to differ in their choice behaviours.

Keywords
Risk Elicitation in Precise and Imprecise Domains
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-375 (URN)10.1109/CIMCA.2006.189 (DOI)2-s2.0-38849199358 (Scopus ID)4183 (Local ID)0-7695-2731-0 (ISBN)9780769527314 (ISBN)4183 (Archive number)4183 (OAI)
Conference
CIMCA 2006: International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, Jointly with IAWTIC 2006: International Conference on Intelligent Agents Web Technologies and International Commerce; Sydney, NSW; Australia; 28 November 2006 through 1 December 2006; Category numberE2731; Code 71399
Available from: 2007-11-29 Created: 2009-03-24 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
6. Approach to probability Interval Elicitation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Approach to probability Interval Elicitation
(English)Manuscript (Other academic)
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-376 (URN)
Available from: 2007-11-29 Created: 2007-11-29 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved

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