Mid Sweden University

miun.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Predicting future stars: Probability and performance corridors for elite swimmers
Show others and affiliations
2024 (English)In: Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport, ISSN 1440-2440, E-ISSN 1878-1861, Vol. 27, no 2, p. 113-118Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Objectives

To evaluate the new age groups of the World Junior Championships in swimming from a scientific perspective, establish benchmarks and performance corridors that predict success at peak performance age and compare performance corridors between men and women and short-, middle-, and long-distance freestyle races.

Design

Longitudinal big data analysis.

Methods

In total, 347,186 annual best times of male (n = 3360, 561 ± 177 Swimming Points) and female freestyle swimmers (n = 2570, 553 ± 183 Swimming Points) were collected across all race distances at peak performance age and retrospectively analyzed throughout adolescence. Cumulative Poisson distribution was used to calculate probabilities of becoming world-class finalist, international-class, or national-class swimmer for each age group. Performance corridors were expressed relative to the World Record and compared between performance levels, sex, race distances, and age groups with a 2-way analysis of variance.

Results

Females are required to swim faster relative to the World Record at a younger age and show earlier performance plateaus than males at national and international levels. Additionally, world-class long-distance finalists show higher Swimming Points earlier in their career compared to short-distance swimmers. This effect is more distinctive in females than males.

Conclusions

Based on the sex-specific performance corridors and developments, the newly aligned age groups for the World Junior Championships are questionable regarding long-term athlete development. Based on race times from 131 nations, the present benchmarks provide valid international normative values to predict success chances at peak performance age and guide young swimmers along their talent pathway.

Abbreviations

FINA, Fédération Internationale de Natation; 850 swimmers, world-class finalists; 750 swimmers, international-class swimmers; 650 swimmers, national-class swimmers

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier BV , 2024. Vol. 27, no 2, p. 113-118
Keywords [en]
Adolescence, Competition, Elite athlete, FINA, World Aquatics, Talent
National Category
Sport and Fitness Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-49917DOI: 10.1016/j.jsams.2023.10.017ISI: 001167963500001PubMedID: 37968181Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85176608782OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-49917DiVA, id: diva2:1814198
Available from: 2023-11-23 Created: 2023-11-23 Last updated: 2024-03-08Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMedScopus

Authority records

Björklund, Glenn

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Born, Dennis-PeterBjörklund, Glenn
By organisation
Department of Health Sciences (HOV)
In the same journal
Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport
Sport and Fitness Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 71 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf