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Evaluation of pharmaceutical intervention strategies against pandemics in Sweden: A scenario-driven multiple criteria decision analysis study
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2022 (English)In: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, ISSN 1057-9214, E-ISSN 1099-1360, Vol. 29, no 1-2, p. 49-66Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

To enhance preparedness for diverse pandemic situations we aim to predict the performance of various pharmaceutical intervention strategies. We gathered domain experts and ran a series of decision conferences where a scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model was interactively defined and implemented. Assuming an influenza pandemic, a micro simulation model was used to estimate societal health impact, a health-economic model was used to estimate economic losses, and expert preferences were elicited to define trade-offs between multiple criteria and synthesize various estimates. Sensitivity analysis to address various forms of uncertainty was also conducted. Nine intervention strategies, including the baseline “no interventions” strategy, were evaluated and ranked under five pandemic scenarios for Sweden's population. We conclude that a scenario-based MCDA approach relying on multiple models for assessment of consequences is instrumental in defining robust interventions and support decision-making at the pre-pandemic and pandemic situations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 29, no 1-2, p. 49-66
Keywords [en]
multiple criteria decision analysis, pandemic influenza, pandemic preparedness, pharmaceutical intervention strategies
National Category
Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-44388DOI: 10.1002/mcda.1779ISI: 000757962800001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85124883180OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-44388DiVA, id: diva2:1641246
Available from: 2022-03-01 Created: 2022-03-01 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved

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Larsson, Aron

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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf