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Five years after Paris, 20 years after Kyoto and 30 years after Rio: managing climate goals from global to local level in Sweden
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Ecotechnology and Suistainable Building Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7037-5348
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Quality Management and Mechanical Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2352-9006
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Ecotechnology and Suistainable Building Engineering.
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Sustainable development
Hållbar utveckling
Abstract [en]

The science-based targets in the Paris Agreement (UN, 2015) aim to reduce global warming according to established model calculations. These targets have been broken down to national levels, and in Sweden further down to regional levels, where county administrators work out specific climate strategies. These constitute governing documents for different stakeholders in the county, e.g. municipalities, companies, organizations. An overarching goal for these stakeholders is to optimize the use of economic resources to meet the stated needs.

To understand the status of today’s climate mitigation work in Sweden, we have mapped the process from the Paris Agreement, down to the level of implementation at municipal level. Sweden has prioritized the strategy to become one of the world´s first fossil-fuel free nations, which implements a short-term risk referring to the urgent need to reduce global temperature effects.  

During the five years that have passed since the Swedish ratification of the Paris Agreement, policy objectives have been set in all Swedish counties. Multi-level climate governance (MLCG) is applied to meet these objectives. Working with MLCG and put trust in soft implementation tools is, however, a slow process that relies on a polycentric techno-optimistic view and volunteering to deal with the challenges. Municipalities with weaker economy seemingly prefer not to define targets for reductions of GHG, so as to be able to focus their resources at mandatory obligations, where climate mitigation is not included. 

Keywords [en]
Managing climate mitigation, Regional Governance, Climate policy
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-43590OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-43590DiVA, id: diva2:1608137
Note

Manuscript sent to journal Environmental Management (Springer)

Available from: 2021-11-03 Created: 2021-11-03 Last updated: 2021-11-03Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Fossil Free or Not - That is the Question
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Fossil Free or Not - That is the Question
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This is an evaluation of Jämtland County’s ability to achieve its climate targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 10% annually, and to become fossil fuel free 2030. There is a risk that the target to become fossil fuel-free, relying primarily on outtake of forest biomass, contradicts with the target in the UN Paris Agreement to keep the global temperature increase below 1.5°C. Neither the GHG emissions reduction target, nor the target to become fossil fuel free, takes forest carbon content into account. To reach the target to become fossil fuel free, forest harvest volumes may need to be increased. This can result in lower short-term net climate benefits than if fossil fuels are substituted to a less extent, and harvest volumes are kept at lower levels. Lower harvest volumes contribute to higher net climate benefits, and in the short term this effect is greater the lower the harvest level. In any case, forest production should be optimized towards products that give high substitution effects from the replacement of other materials. 

To be able to reach the short-term reductions of GHG emissions, efforts should be made to decrease regional energy demand and general consumption. The transition to new technologies is slow, and is unlikely to contribute to short-term reductions. By the end of 2023, according to the county strategy, the GHG emissions should be max 73% of the emissions by the end of 2019. This is a historically huge reduction. The potential to increase uptake of carbon dioxide in forests should be considered as a complement to the other climate targets.  

Assessments of social/welfare risks have to be weighed against the risks of increased temperatures, which is challenging, but needs to be done. The complexity of differences in short-term and long-term carbon balance effects makes risk assessments of climate mitigation strategies difficult. Compromises will be required between risks with different time horizons. To rely on techno-optimistic visions increase the risks that the emission reduction target will not be reached. From some perspectives, it is positive to spread techno-optimistic future visions, but there is a risk that we will keep on increasing consumption if we believe that problems with increased atmospheric concentrations of GHG can be solved by continuous consumption of ‘sustainable’ products. A simple 2% rule of thumb is that 2 kg of CO2eq is emitted for each 100 SEK consumed. 

Abstract [sv]

Denna avhandling är en utvärdering av Jämtlands läns möjligheter att nå sina klimatmål att reducera växthusgasemissioner med 10% årligen, och samtidigt blir fossilbränslefria 2030. Det föreligger en risk att det regionala målet att bli fossilbränslefritt, vilket delvis vilar på uttag av biomassa, motverkar temperaturmålet i FNs Parisavtal att hålla temperaturökningen under 1,5°C. Varken målet att årligen reducera växthusgasutsläppen eller målet att bli fossilfritt, tar hänsyn till hur kolbalansen ser ut i skogarna. Ett växthusgasreduktionsmål i kombination med målet att bli fossilbränslefri ökar sannolikheten att skogsskördarna ökar, vilket för Jämtland mest sannolikt resulterar i en negativ klimateffekt. Lägre skördevolymer ger på kort sikt stora klimatvinster även om substitutionseffekter inräknas. Oavsett skördenivå bör skördade volymer styras mot produkter som ger hög substitutionseffekt där andra material ersätts. 

För att snabbt nå minskade växthusgasutsläpp på 10% per år, bör man öka ansträngningarna att reducera samhällets allmänna energibehov och minska totalkonsumtionen. Införandet av nya teknologier går långsamt, och ger knappast några kortsiktiga effekter på utsläppen. Vid slutet av 2023 skall, enligt länsstrategin, växthusgasutsläppen vara max 73% av 2019 års nivå. Detta är en historiskt stor reduktion. Som ett komplement bör möjligheterna att öka det naturliga upptaget av koldioxid undersökas. 

Bedömningar av välfärdsrisker och riskerna med ökande temperaturer måste vägas mot varandra. Komplexiteten i skillnader i kortsiktiga och långsiktiga effekter på klimatet gör riskbedömningar av olika klimatstrategier svår. Kompromisser kommer krävas mellan risker med olika tidshorisonter. Att förlita sig på techno-optimistiska visioner vilka präglar alla Sveriges länsstrategier, innebär att man inför risker att utsläppsreduktionsmålet inte kommer nås. Techno- optimistiska framtidsvisioner har förvisso sina företräden men det finns en uppenbar risk att konsumtionsnivån fortsätter stiga om vi tror att problemet med den globala uppvärmningen har en snabb lösning i att vi blir fossilbränslefria och konsumtion sker av ”hållbara produkter”. En enkel ”2%-tumregel” är att för varje konsumerad 100-lapp, emitteras 2 kg koldioxid. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Östersund: Mid Sweden University, 2021. p. 42
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 356
Keywords
Fossil free, Carbon balance, Carbon flow, Energy flow, Climate mitigation, Governing climate change, Forest carbon
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-43591 (URN)978-91-89341-34-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-12-08, F229, Kunskapens väg 12, 831 40 Östersund, Östersund, 09:00 (Swedish)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Interreg Sweden-Norway, SMICE
Available from: 2021-11-03 Created: 2021-11-03 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Skytt, TorbjörnHedlund, ChristerCarlman, Inga

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