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Den första petropolitiska lagen: en statistisk analys av ett högre råoljepris och demokratisk utveckling hos ett antal petropolitiska stater
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Human Sciences, Department of Social Sciences.
2008 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor)Student thesis
Abstract [sv]

Syftet med undersökningen var att med hjälp av lämpliga statistiska metoder testa det så kallade ”Första petropolitiska lagen” med vilket menas en negativ korrelation mellan priset på råolja och graden av friheten hos petropolitiska länder. Med stöd av ett lämplig teoretisk referensram och diskussion över de kausala mekanismerna, har en hypotes över sambandet tagits fram. Trettio tre petropolitiska stater har identifierats vilket omfattar hela populationen. Demokratiska friheter och priset på råolja har definierats och omvandlats till en kvantifierbar form och sedan testats statistiskt. Samtliga variabler har kodats i form av tidsserieobservationer och en paneldata har konstruerats innehållande totalt 939 årliga observationer för de trettio tre petropolitiska länder. Den aggregerade sambandet över hela populationen har testats med en OLE regressionsanalys med så kallad ”first-order” autokorrelation med panelspecifika standardavvikelser. Den första petropolitiska lagen har även testats individuellt för varje petropolitisk land som ingick i urvalet. Erhållen resultat från aggregerat regressionsanalys tyder på att det föreligger ett svagt, med 95 % statistiskt signifikant, positiv samband mellan den beroende och den oberoende variabeln. När sambandet testades enskilt för varje land, har endast 16 av 33 länder fått signifikanta korrelationsnivåer. Fem av länder visade en negativ samband medan elva länder visade en positiv samband mellan beroende och oberoende variabler. Hypotesen har därmed kunnat falsifieras. Förklaringsgraden, samt autokorrelationsproblem tyder dock på att en mer omfattande analys krävs för att kunna säkerställa erhållna resultat.

Abstract [en]

The purpose of this study was to, with proper statistical methods, investigate so called ”The First Law of Petropolitics”. The First Law of Petropolitics postulates that there exists a negative correlation between price of oil and pace of freedom in the oil-rich petrolist states. A hypothesis has been formulated based on appropriate theoretical references and a discussion about its causal mechanisms. Thirty three petropolist states have been identified which comprises the whole population. The pace of freedom and the price of oil has been defined and transformed into a quantifiable measure and tested statistically. Variables were coded into a time-series panel-data form which included 939 annual observations for those thirty three petrolist states. The aggregated correlation between dependent and independent variables has been tested with an OLE regression analysis with so called “first-order autocorrelation with panel-specific standard errors”. The first law of petropolitics also has been individually tested for each petrolist state. The results from the aggregate regression suggest that there exists a weak, with 95 % statistically significant, positive correlation between a dependent and an independent variables. When each petrolist state has been regressed individually the results showed that only 16 of 33 states had significant levels of correlation. Five of those states had a negative correlation, while other eleven states had a positive correlation. The hypothesis has therefore been falsified. The low R2 –value obtained in both tests and autocorrelation problems suggest that a further investigation of the First Law of Petropolitics is necessary in order to secure the obtained results.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institutionen för samhällsvetenskap , 2008. , p. 36
Keywords [sv]
Statsvetenskap, olje politik, olje stat, rentier state, ränteberoende effekt, repressions effekt, moderniserings effekt
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-191OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-191DiVA, id: diva2:1472
Uppsok
samhälle/juridik
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Examiners
Available from: 2008-03-17 Created: 2008-03-17 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved

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