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Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Technology and Media. (STC)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0310-0018
2008 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University , 2008. , 79 p.
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 61
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7803ISBN: 978-91-86073-13-8 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-7803DiVA: diva2:128378
Public defence
(English)
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-12-16 Created: 2008-12-16 Last updated: 2011-02-06Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Decision analysis with multiple objectives in a framework for evaluating imprecision
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Decision analysis with multiple objectives in a framework for evaluating imprecision
2005 (English)In: International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, ISSN 0218-4885, Vol. 13, no 5, 495-509 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a decision tree evaluation method for analyzing multi-attribute decisions under risk, where information is numerically imprecise. The approach extends the use of additive and multiplicative utility functions for supporting evaluation of imprecise statements, relaxing requirements for precise estimates of decision parameters. Information is modeled in convex sets of utility and probability measures restricted by closed intervals. Evaluation is done relative to a set of rules, generalizing the concept of admissibility, computationally handled through optimization of aggregated utility functions. Pros and cons of two approaches, and tradeoffs in selecting a utility function, are discussed.

Keyword
Decision analysis, multi-attribute utility theory, decision tools; imprecise information
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3398 (URN)000232867500003 ()3468 (Local ID)3468 (Archive number)3468 (OAI)
Conference
17th International FLAIRS Conference, May 17-19, 2004, miami Beach, FL
Note
17th International FLAIRS Conference, May 17-19, 2004, Miami Beach, FLAvailable from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2011-07-21Bibliographically approved
2. Representation and Evaluation of Influence Diagrams in a Common Framework for Interval Decision Analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Representation and Evaluation of Influence Diagrams in a Common Framework for Interval Decision Analysis
2006 (English)In: Proceedings of IMECS 2006, 2006, 738-743 p.Conference paper, (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper present a method for inclusion of influence diagrams within a common framework for analysing decisions under risk supporting interval-valued user statements. The method of inclusion support both modeling and evaluation, and the evaluation is performed through a conversion of influence diagrams into decision tree frames holding symmetric decision trees. The qualitative and explicit modeling of probabilistic independence cause implicit comparative constraints between variables, constraints which must not be violated in order to obtain correct evaluation results.

Keyword
Decision evaluation, influence diagrams, imprecise information
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3257 (URN)000241357500138 ()2-s2.0-84888223103 (Scopus ID)3518 (Local ID)988-986713-3 (ISBN)3518 (Archive number)3518 (OAI)
Conference
International Multiconference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, Jun 20-22, 2006, Kowloon, China
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2008-09-30 Last updated: 2016-09-26Bibliographically approved
3. Distribution of expected utility in decision trees
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Distribution of expected utility in decision trees
2007 (English)In: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, ISSN 0888-613X, E-ISSN 1873-4731, Vol. 46, no 2, 387-407 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Evaluation of decision trees in which uncertain information is present is complicated. Especially when the tree has some depth, i.e. consists of more than one level, the effects of the choice of representation and evaluation procedures are significant. Second-order representation and evaluation may significantly increase a decisionmaker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. Furthermore, due to the effects on the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the Gamma-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily pessimistic as the belief in neighbourhoods of points near interval boundaries is usually lower than in neighbourhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed. The results in this paper apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order information, such as standard decision trees or probabilistic networks using only first-order concepts, for example upper and lower bounds. Furthermore, the results also apply to other, non-probabilistic weighted trees such as multi-criteria weight trees.

Keyword
Decision analysis, second-order probabilities, utility theory, decision evaluation
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-4007 (URN)10.1016/j.ijar.2006.09.012 (DOI)000250898800009 ()2-s2.0-34648822919 (Scopus ID)4477 (Local ID)4477 (Archive number)4477 (OAI)
Available from: 2008-12-15 Created: 2008-12-15 Last updated: 2016-09-26Bibliographically approved
4. Distributions over Expected Utilities in Decision Analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Distributions over Expected Utilities in Decision Analysis
2007 (English)In: ISIPTA 2007 - Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, 2007, 175-182 p.Conference paper, (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

It is often recognised that in real-life decision situations, classical utility theory puts too strong requirements on the decision-maker. Various interval approaches for decision making have therefore been developed and these have been reasonably successful. However, a problem that sometimes appears in real-life situations is that the result of an evaluation still has an uncertainty about which alternative is to prefer. This is due to expected utility overlaps rendering discrimination more difficult. In this article we discuss how adding second-order information may increase a decision-maker�s understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams.

Keyword
Decision analysis, Imprecise probabilities, Imprecise utilities, Hierarchical models
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-4263 (URN)2-s2.0-55849116114 (Scopus ID)5034 (Local ID)978-808674220-5 (ISBN)5034 (Archive number)5034 (OAI)
Conference
5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, ISIPTA 2007; Prague; Czech Republic; 16 July 2007 through 19 July 2007; Code 98794
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2008-09-30 Last updated: 2016-09-23Bibliographically approved
5. Preference Ordering Algorithms with Imprecise Expectations
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Preference Ordering Algorithms with Imprecise Expectations
2006 (English)In: Proceedings of IMECS 2006, 2006, 750-755 p.Conference paper, (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In imprecise domains the preference order of the alternatives is not straightforward to establish, due to possible overlapping of expected values among the alternatives. Nevertheless, such rankings are useful in decision analysis applications, as obtaining a ranking of alternatives is a way to gain an overview of the situation. The rankings presented in this paper represent overviews of a preference order of the alternatives based on their respective expected utility. The ranking can be either ordinal, focusing only on the ordering, or cardinal, also taking the differences in expected utility into account. The first set of procedures discussed is a cardinal ranking, which provides the user with expected utility intervals of the evaluated alternatives. This yields a more extensive overview with more detailed information. The second set of procedures discussed ordinal rankings of the alternatives based on three different approaches; 1) contraction based ranking, 2) intersection based ranking, and 3) focal point based ranking with indifference level. Finally, we show that regardless of ranking method their respective maximal elements all conform to the maximal element of the ordinal ranking. Hence, if the intention is to find a maximal element, it is sufficient to use either pointwise cardinal ranking or ordinal ranking with zero as indifference level.

Keyword
Decision analysis, alternative ranking, utility theory, imprecise information
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3775 (URN)000241357500140 ()2-s2.0-84888212505 (Scopus ID)4068 (Local ID)988-986713-3 (ISBN)4068 (Archive number)4068 (OAI)
Conference
International Multiconference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, Jun 20-22, 2006, Kowloon, China
Available from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2016-09-26Bibliographically approved
6. Using a Software Tool for Public Decision Analysis Analysis: the Case of Nacka Municipality
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using a Software Tool for Public Decision Analysis Analysis: the Case of Nacka Municipality
2007 (English)In: Decision Analysis, ISSN 1545-8490, Vol. 4(2), 76-90 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a case of interval decision analysis using a tool that takes advantage of interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, and is capable of handling comparative relations, i.e. interval statements on differences between variables. These statements are represented as constraints to the solution set and evaluated using a number of different evaluation methods, each serving the decision-maker with different insights of the decision problem. We demonstrate the applicability of the tool in a case study regarding three public infrastructure decision problems which had remained unresolved during a number of years.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
INFORMS/Highwire Press, 2007
Keyword
Interval decision analysis, public decision making, transparent decision process
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-1359 (URN)10.1287/deca.1070.0088 (DOI)4938 (Local ID)4938 (Archive number)4938 (OAI)
Projects
PI - Publika Informationssystem
Available from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2011-02-06Bibliographically approved
7. Public Decision Support - Using a DSS to Increase Democratic Transparency
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Public Decision Support - Using a DSS to Increase Democratic Transparency
2005 (English)In: International Journal of Public Information Systems, ISSN 1653-4360, Vol. 1, no 1, 3-25 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a case study in which a decision support method (ADL) was employed by a local government in order to guide and aid decisions on three complicated and politically infected issues which had remained unresolved for many years. The research inquiry was whether a well-defined and openly accessible method would aid a common understanding of the decision problems, and whether people would be able to accept a clearly motivated decision even if politically they preferred a different option. The ADL method has been used in several public sector projects ranging from very large purchasing decisions to the selection of national policies, but this test case was novel in that it involved close inspection by the public. This case was also devised as a test of new methods for potential inclusion into normal practices. The post-case analysis shows mixed understanding of and belief in the method. The results raise issues concerning both the potential for decision support methods in a political context and the nature of political decision making.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mittuniversitetet, 2005
Keyword
Decision support, multi-criteria decision analysis, democratic decision process, e-Democracy
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-4724 (URN)3516 (Local ID)3516 (Archive number)3516 (OAI)
Projects
PI - Publika Informationssystem
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2008-09-30 Last updated: 2016-10-11Bibliographically approved
8. A framework for evaluating emergency preparedness plans and response strategies
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A framework for evaluating emergency preparedness plans and response strategies
2008 (English)Report (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Laxenburg: , 2008
Series
IIASA Interim Report Series, IR-08-008
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7802 (URN)
Available from: 2008-12-16 Created: 2008-12-16 Last updated: 2016-05-20Bibliographically approved
9. Risk Assessment of New Pricing Strategies in the District Heating Market: A Case Study at Sundsvall Energi AB
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk Assessment of New Pricing Strategies in the District Heating Market: A Case Study at Sundsvall Energi AB
2010 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, Vol. 38, no 5, 2171-2178 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The price structure of district heating has been no major scientific issue for the last decades in energy related research. However, today trends in district heating pricing tend to move towards a more customer oriented approach with fixed prices under a longer period, leading to a more complex price structure. If a district heating supplier offers district heating with fixed prices in order to compete with similar electricity offers, the financial risk of the fixed price product is significantly higher than the risk of an ordinary variable cost offer. In contrary to an electricity seller, the district heating company can not transfer all of the risk of fixed prices offer to the financial market, instead the company is thrown upon its own ability to handle the risk by, e.g., hedging its own energy purchase. However, all uncertainties can not be coped with in this manner. Thus, there is a need for a methodology that can be used to estimate the financial risk of different price structures and to value different opportunities to reduce the risk. In this article we propose a methodology, implemented in a prototype software, to evaluate the risk associated with new price structures in district heating.

Keyword
District heating; Risk assment; Pricing
National Category
Computer Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-6608 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.064 (DOI)000276289500014 ()2-s2.0-77649190136 (Scopus ID)4936 (Local ID)4936 (Archive number)4936 (OAI)
Projects
STC
Available from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2011-01-19Bibliographically approved
10.
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Citation style
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  • ieee
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  • en-GB
  • en-US
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  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
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Output format
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  • text
  • asciidoc
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