Mid Sweden University

Large-scale and long-term planning imposes extensive requirements on governance efforts regardless of whether it involves public organisations, private organisations, or both. The proportions of such planning entangle many actors and stakeholders as system components within and around a complex system. These system components and conditions in a complex planning environment introduce a diverse variety of strategic objectives into the planning. This study investigates how strategic objectives can affect the governance of complex planning systems, particularly in the context of national critical infrastructure protection. For this purpose, this thesis concentrates on a national planning procedure, STYREL, which Sweden has recently implemented for the case of power shortages. This case involves various actors from the national, regional and local levels who act on behalf of both public and private organisations in a planning process with four-year intervals, and it thus constitutes a relevant subject for this study. The investigation entailed the collection of evidence from documents and interviews. First, publicly available Swedish documents regarding the case provided an understanding of the planning. Second, interviews with decision-makers who are entrusted with this planning at municipalities and county administrative boards as well as with a few planners from power grid providers offered a deeper comprehension of both the proceedings in practice and the strategic objectives involved in this complex system for planning of critical infrastructure protection. Particularly, the findings resulted in several conceptual models that demonstrate these understandings in more detail. A soft system model visualises the problem situation and contains several elements, such as the system components, interrelations and conditions. Moreover, a multi-level planning model specifies sources of uncertainty in the planning and decision-making process that are associated with an insufficient alignment of strategic objectives in the STYREL case. These decompositions of the Swedish planning environment – both horizontal and vertical – further enabled this study to identify significant parameters of the systemic conditions and strategic objectives involved in such complex planning environments that challenge their governance. The findings of this study suggest that the Swedish process is not yet fully developed. The investigation particularly indicates that a better alignment of strategic objectives is necessary to ensure a selection of adequate goals and means that advances the future usability of the produced plan, which in turn would legitimate and strengthen this complex planning process for critical infrastructure protection.

Storskalig och långvarig planering ställer höga krav på styrning. Detta gäller oavsett om offentliga eller privata organisationer, eller båda, är involverade. Omfattningen av en sådan planering engagerar många aktörer och intressenter som komponenter inom och omkring ett komplext system. Dessa komponenter samt deras villkor inbäddade i en komplex planeringsmiljö skapar en mångfald av strategiska målbilder som följer med in till planeringen. Denna studie undersöker därför hur strategiska målbilder kan påverka styrningen av komplexa planeringssystem, särskilt i kontexten av skyddet av kritisk infrastruktur i samhället. Undersökningen fokuserar på en nationell planeringsprocess, kallad STYREL, som avser beredskapsplanering för elbristsituationer och som implementerats i Sverige. Planeringsmiljön omkring STYREL är ett relevant studieobjekt eftersom den involverar många aktörer från nationell, regional och lokal nivå. Dessa aktörer representerar offentliga och privata organisationer i den planeringsprocess som genomförs med fyraårsintervaller. Under undersökningens gång har bevis samlats in från dokument och intervjustudier. Först har offentlig tillgängliga dokument om fallet skapat en förståelse om planeringen. Intervjuer med beslutsfattare som är ansvariga för STYREL-planeringen hos länsstyrelser, kommuner samt elnätsbolag har sedan genererat en ännu djupare förståelse. Detta gällande både förfaringssättet i praktiken och de strategiska målbilder som är involverade i detta komplexa system för planering av kritisk infrastruktur-skydd. Resultaten ledde i synnerhet till några konceptuella modeller vilka demonstrerar förståelserna på ett detaljerat sätt. En systemmodell visualiserar problemsituationen och innehåller flera element såsom systemkomponenter, relationer och villkor. En multinivå-planeringsmodell specificerar källor av osäkerhet i planerings- och beslutsprocessen vilka är associerade med en otillräcklig harmonisering av strategiska målbilder i STYREL fallet. Dekompositionerna av den svenska planeringsmiljön – både horisontellt och vertikalt – gjorde det möjligt att identifiera signifikanta parametrar av de systemiska villkor och strategiska målbilder som är involverade i dessa komplexa planeringsmiljöer och utmanar deras styrning. Resultaten av studien indikerar att den svenska processen inte är fullt utvecklat. Undersökningen visar att en bättre harmonisering av strategiska målbilder är nödvändig för att säkerställa ett urval av adekvata mål och medel som skulle utveckla den framtida användbarheten av den producerade planen. Denna skulle i sin tur legitimera och stärka den komplexa planeringsprocessen för skyddet av kritisk infrastruktur. Därtill kunde detta främja en målgruppsorienterad kommunikation om risker och relevanta åtgärder.

The protection of infrastructure that is critical to society’s functionality, survival and progression has gained significance for both national security and research because of its large-scale and interdependent nature. Critical infrastructure can be viewed as a complex, socio-technical system-of-systems that imposes extensive requirements on governance efforts to foster critical infrastructure protection (CIP), regardless of whether it involves public organisations, private organisations or both.

This dissertation investigates how systemic thinking can develop understandings of CIP and its governance. For this purpose, the dissertation presents research that was conducted in the context of an unexplored Swedish governance approach for CIP against power shortages.The dissertation consists of a three-part thesis and six peer-reviewed publications.

Part A of this thesis presents the results of a substantial review of scientific literature on the concepts of systems, infrastructure and governance. Because of their recursive nature, the concepts encounter a common challenge in characterising their key elements, structures and processes. The multi-level character of CIP provokes governance to systemically address the behaviours of adaption, emergence and entropy which the complex system exhibits. Apart from contributing nuanced knowledge of systems, infrastructure and governance, Part A provides a novel frame of reference for research in the area in the form of a kaleidoscope for integrative system analysis – KISA.

Part B presents the key results of a case study on the Swedish Styrel approach. The investigation is based on an examination of documents that relate to the case, interviews with 66 responsible experts and a survey among all 21 County Administrative Boards and 10 power grid operators that are responsible for stabilising the power grid during disturbances. The contri¬bution of Part B is threefold. First, it originates an extensive representation of an unexplored case of CIP governance. Second, it offers a new comprehen¬sion of practical challenges in CIP governance due to the complex nature of the system and the entangled processes. Third, it provides empirical evidence that indicates areas for development of CIP governance practices.

Part C presents the results of the synthesis of theoretical and practical findings. It coalesces perspectives of critical infrastructure and system protection to elaborate on the concept of systemic governance. Fundamentally, systemic governance of CIP integrates the nexus of governance, management and leadership to address challenges regarding key properties of complex systems: entropy, emergence and adaption. Part C defines the theoretical contribution of this dissertation, namely the concept of systemic governance of CIP.