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Prognostisering: En fallstudie för att jämföra Holt-Winters metod och Regressionsanalys
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Systems and Technology.
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Systems and Technology.
2017 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The aim of this study has been to compare the accuracy of prognosis tools and how well they do with regards to seasonal variation and known deviations in order to decide which method is more suitable for companies with the goal of optimizing their staffing. The study has used Systembolaget as a case to compare two methods of prognosis. Data has been retrieved from Systembolaget and includes the company's sales. The methods that have been compared are Holt-Winters method and regression analysis. This has been done by applying the methods in order to generate a forecast and then evaluating the result through MAPE. Application of these methods was done with Excel and SPSS. The study showed that, under the present circumstances, both methods on average gave equally accurate forecasts. Holt-Winter's method however, forecasted more accurately week by week, while the regression analysis projection on average yielded almost equal percentage error. The conclusion that was generated by the study was that Holt-Winter's method is preferable for companies with this type of sale if the purpose is to generate a weekly accurate forecast. On the other hand, the conclusion may vary if methods are optimized and more data is available.

Abstract [sv]

Målet med denna undersökning har varit att jämföra noggrannheten hos prognostiseringsverktyg och hur bra dessa tar hänsyn till säsongsvariationer och kända avvikelser för att avgöra vilket verktyg som är lämpligast för företag med som vill optimera sin bemanning. Studien har använt Systembolaget som fall för att jämföra två metoder för prognostisering. Data har hämtats från Systembolaget och omfattar företagets försäljning. Metoderna som har jämförts har varit Holt-Winters metod och Regressionsanalys. Detta har utförts genom att tillämpa metoderna för att få ut en prognos och sedan utvärdera resultatet genom MAPE. Tillämpningen av dessa metoder skedde via Excel och SPSS. Studien visade att under de befintliga omständigheterna gav båda metoder i snitt lika noggranna prognoser. Holt-Winters metod prognostiserade dock noggrannare vecka för vecka, medan regressionsanalysens prognos i snitt gav nästan lika stort procentuellt fel. Slutsatsen som genererades genom studien var att Holt-Winters metod är att föredra för företag med denna typ av försäljning om syftet är att få en så noggrann prognos för varje vecka. Däremot kan slutsatsen variera om metoderna optimeras och mer data finns tillgänglig.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , 39 p.
Keyword [en]
Forecasting, Holt-Winters, Regression analysis
Keyword [sv]
Prognostisering, Holt-Winters, Regressionsanalys
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-30870Local ID: IG-V17-G3-009OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-30870DiVA: diva2:1110078
Subject / course
Industrial Organization and Economy IE1
Educational program
Master of Science in Industrial Engineering and Management TINDA 300 higher education credits
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-06-15 Created: 2017-06-15 Last updated: 2017-06-15Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • harvard1
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
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