miun.sePublications
Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Kostnadskalkyler med osäkerhetsanalys och subjektiva sannolikheter: En fallstudie på Biogas Mellannorrland
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Systems and Technology.
Mid Sweden University, Faculty of Science, Technology and Media, Department of Information Systems and Technology.
2017 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The purpose with this study is to show how the subjective uncertainty analysis can be applied to the cost estimates and examine how the attitudes towards risk budgeting of construction projects works. Biogas Mellannorrland is based on a case study and focuses on four location options for the biogas plant. For each option, a cost estimate in form of a fixed cost and variable cost elements, where the latter are uncertain. Pearson-Tukey method have been applied as a method to estimating subjective probabilities. An assumption is made so that the uncertain costs are normally distributed, where the parameters’ mean and standard deviation collected from respondents indicating percentiles at 5% and 95% for doubtful cost elements. In order to identify the project managers risk attitude, the risk premium method will be used to calculate where the expected value is produced by Pearson-Tukey method. The expected value is subtracted with certainty equivalent, which consist of the budgeted amount. The study was conducted through interviews in order to obtain the costs and the subjective probabilities. The study results show that it is difficult to determine which option is the best, or the worst, by just looking at the expected value. The risk premium shows that each option is a risk averse choice for the project managers, since the risk premium was greater than zero.

Abstract [sv]

Denna studie syftar till att visa hur subjektiv osäkerhetsanalys kan tillämpas vid kostnadskalkyler samt undersöka riskattityder vid budgetering av byggprojekt. Undersökningen är en fallstudie vid Biogas Mellannorrland och fokuserar på fyra lokaliseringsalternativ för biogasanläggning. För varje alternativ görs en kostnadskalkyl i form av ett antal fasta och rörliga delkostnader, där de senare är osäkra. Som metod för att skatta subjektiva sannolikheter har Pearson-Tukey-metoden tillämpats. Ett antagande görs att osäkra kostnader är normalfördelade, där parametrarna väntevärde och standardavvikelse hämtas från respondenter som anger percentilerna vid 5 % och 95 % för osäkra delkostnader. För att identifiera projektledarnas riskattityd, kommer riskpremium att beräknas, där det förväntade värdet tas fram med Pearson-Tukey- metoden. Det förväntade värdet subtraheras med säkerhetsekvivalensen, vilket utgörs av det budgeterade beloppet. Studien har genomförts med hjälp av intervjuer för att få fram kostnader och subjektiva sannolikheter. Studiens resultat visar att det är svårt att avgöra vilka alternativ som är bäst eller sämst genom att bara titta på väntevärdet. Med riskpremium visar alla alternativ att projektledarna gör ett riskaversivt val, eftersom riskpremium blev större än noll.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , p. 53
Keyword [en]
Biogas Mellannorrland, normal distribution, uncertainty analysis, Pearson Tukey, standard deviation, subjective probability, expected value
Keyword [sv]
Biogas Mellannorrland, normalfördelning, osäkerhetsanalys, Pearson-Tukey, standardavvikelse, subjektiva sannolikheter, väntevärde
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-30591Local ID: IG-V16-G3-017OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-30591DiVA, id: diva2:1088263
Subject / course
Industrial Organization and Economy IE1
Educational program
Master of Science in Industrial Engineering and Management TINDA 300 higher education credits
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-04-12 Created: 2017-04-12 Last updated: 2017-04-12Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(2950 kB)76 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 2950 kBChecksum SHA-512
2b1939b76eae280788cb26f43bd788e82c77663208b36c762f379ca54db4ebfd81ee810318ed3f66fa57e46d80168fd023768e17633911b15d126fd23b386b65
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Kwiatkowski, RobertHtay, Shwe
By organisation
Department of Information Systems and Technology
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 76 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 110 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf