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Implementing Second-Order Decision Analysis: Concepts, Algorithms, and Tool
Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Avdelningen för informations- och kommunikationssystem. Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Postbox 7003, Kista, Sweden . (Computational Industrial Engineering)ORCID-id: 0000-0003-0310-0018
Institute for Information Processing, Leibniz University, Hannover, Germany.
ciences, Stockholm University, Postbox 7003, Kista, Sweden .
ciences, Stockholm University, Postbox 7003, Kista, Sweden .
2014 (Engelska)Ingår i: Advances in Decision Sciences, ISSN 2090-3359, E-ISSN 2090-3367, s. Art. no. 519512-Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

We present implemented concepts and algorithms for a simulation approach to decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions in a common framework for interval decision analysis. The rationale behind this work is that decision analysis with interval-valued probabilities and utilities may lead to overlapping expected utility intervals yielding difficulties in discriminating between alternatives. By allowing for second-order belief distributions over interval-valued utility and probability statements these difficulties may not only be remedied but will also allow for decision evaluation concepts and techniques providing additional insight into a decision problem. The approach is based upon sets of linear constraints together with generation of random probability distributions and utility values from implicitly stated uniform second-order belief distributions over the polytopes given from the constraints. The result is an interactive method for decision evaluation with second-order belief distributions, complementing earlier methods for decision evaluation with interval-valued probabilities and utilities. The method has been implemented for trial use in a user oriented decision analysis software.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Hindawi Publishing Corporation, 2014. s. Art. no. 519512-
Nyckelord [en]
Decision analysis, imprecise information, second-order probability, decision tool
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Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-23556DOI: 10.1155/2014/519512Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-84918586059Lokalt ID: STCOAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-23556DiVA, id: diva2:767178
Tillgänglig från: 2014-12-01 Skapad: 2014-12-01 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-01-11Bibliografiskt granskad

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