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Generalised Risk Constraints in Decision Trees with Second-Order Probabilities
Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
Dept. of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University.
Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier. (ValIT)ORCID-id: 0000-0003-0310-0018
2012 (Engelska)Ingår i: Advances in Economics, Risk Management, Political and Law Science / [ed] D. Pavelkova, J. Strouhal, M. Pasekova, WSEAS Press , 2012, s. 376-383Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Recently, representations and methods analysing decision problems where probabilities and values (utilities) are associated with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper we present an approach to how imprecise information can be modelled by means of second-order distributions and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically impreciseprobabilities and utilities. We discuss some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expectedutility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
WSEAS Press , 2012. s. 376-383
Nyckelord [en]
Decision analysis, risk analysis, interval probability, second-order probability, decision rule, utility theory
Nationell ämneskategori
Datorsystem
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-17158ISBN: 978-1-61804-123-4 (tryckt)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-17158DiVA, id: diva2:558703
Konferens
1st WSEAS International Conference on Risk Assessment, Management and Mitigation
Forskningsfinansiär
FormasTillgänglig från: 2012-10-04 Skapad: 2012-10-04 Senast uppdaterad: 2012-10-05Bibliografiskt granskad

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http://www.wseas.us/e-library/conferences/2012/Zlin/EPRI/EPRI-62.pdf

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Larsson, Aron

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