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Risk Assessment of New Pricing Strategies in the District Heating Market: A Case Study at Sundsvall Energi AB
Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för naturvetenskap, teknik och matematik.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-6983-3121
Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.
Mittuniversitetet, Fakulteten för naturvetenskap, teknik och medier, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier.ORCID-id: 0000-0003-0310-0018
2010 (Engelska)Ingår i: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 38, nr 5, s. 2171-2178Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The price structure of district heating has been no major scientific issue for the last decades in energy related research. However, today trends in district heating pricing tend to move towards a more customer oriented approach with fixed prices under a longer period, leading to a more complex price structure. If a district heating supplier offers district heating with fixed prices in order to compete with similar electricity offers, the financial risk of the fixed price product is significantly higher than the risk of an ordinary variable cost offer. In contrary to an electricity seller, the district heating company can not transfer all of the risk of fixed prices offer to the financial market, instead the company is thrown upon its own ability to handle the risk by, e.g., hedging its own energy purchase. However, all uncertainties can not be coped with in this manner. Thus, there is a need for a methodology that can be used to estimate the financial risk of different price structures and to value different opportunities to reduce the risk. In this article we propose a methodology, implemented in a prototype software, to evaluate the risk associated with new price structures in district heating.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2010. Vol. 38, nr 5, s. 2171-2178
Nyckelord [en]
District heating; Risk assment; Pricing
Nationell ämneskategori
Datavetenskap (datalogi)
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-6608DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.064ISI: 000276289500014Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-77649190136Lokalt ID: 4936OAI: oai:DiVA.org:miun-6608DiVA, id: diva2:31647
Projekt
STCTillgänglig från: 2008-11-23 Skapad: 2008-11-23 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-01-12Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
2007 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Despite the fact that unguided decision making might lead to inefficient and nonoptimal decisions, decisions made at organizational levels seldom utilise decisionanalytical tools. Several gaps between the decision-makers and the computer baseddecision tools exist, and a main problem in managerial decision-making involves the lack of information and precise objective data, i.e. uncertainty and imprecision may be inherent in the decision situation. We believe that this problem might be overcome by providing computer based decision tools capable of handling the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making. At present, nearly all decision analytic software is only able to handle precise input, and no known software is capable of handling full scale imprecision, i.e. imprecise probabilities, values and weights, in the form of interval and comparative statements. There are, however, some theories which are able to handle some kind of uncertainty, and which deal with computational and implementational issues, but if they are never actually operationalised, they are of little real use for a decision-maker. Therefore, a natural question is how a reasonable decision analytical framework can be built based on prevailing interval methods, thus dealing with the problems of uncertain and imprecise input? Further, will the interval approach actually prove useful? The framework presented herein handles theoretical foundations for, and implementations of, imprecise multi-level trees, multi-criteria, risk analysis, together with several different evaluation options. The framework supports interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, as well as comparative statements, also allowing for mixing probabilistic and multi-criteria decisions. The framework has also been field tested in a number of studies, proving the usefulness of the interval approach.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2007. s. 50
Serie
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 21
Nyckelord
decision tree, decision analysis, decision tool, imprecise reasoning, probability
Nationell ämneskategori
Datavetenskap (datalogi)
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7147 (URN)978-91-85317-49-3 (ISBN)
Disputation
(Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Tillgänglig från: 2008-11-29 Skapad: 2008-11-23 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-01-13Bibliografiskt granskad
2. Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Essays on theories and applications of decision analysis in imprecise domains
2008 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2008. s. 79
Serie
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 61
Nationell ämneskategori
Datavetenskap (datalogi)
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7803 (URN)978-91-86073-13-8 (ISBN)
Disputation
(Engelska)
Handledare
Tillgänglig från: 2008-12-16 Skapad: 2008-12-16 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-01-13Bibliografiskt granskad

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