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Idefeldt, Jim
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Publications (10 of 21) Show all publications
Björkqvist, O., Idefeldt, J. & Larsson, A. (2010). Risk Assessment of New Pricing Strategies in the District Heating Market: A Case Study at Sundsvall Energi AB. Energy Policy, 38(5), 2171-2178
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk Assessment of New Pricing Strategies in the District Heating Market: A Case Study at Sundsvall Energi AB
2010 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, E-ISSN 1873-6777, Vol. 38, no 5, p. 2171-2178Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The price structure of district heating has been no major scientific issue for the last decades in energy related research. However, today trends in district heating pricing tend to move towards a more customer oriented approach with fixed prices under a longer period, leading to a more complex price structure. If a district heating supplier offers district heating with fixed prices in order to compete with similar electricity offers, the financial risk of the fixed price product is significantly higher than the risk of an ordinary variable cost offer. In contrary to an electricity seller, the district heating company can not transfer all of the risk of fixed prices offer to the financial market, instead the company is thrown upon its own ability to handle the risk by, e.g., hedging its own energy purchase. However, all uncertainties can not be coped with in this manner. Thus, there is a need for a methodology that can be used to estimate the financial risk of different price structures and to value different opportunities to reduce the risk. In this article we propose a methodology, implemented in a prototype software, to evaluate the risk associated with new price structures in district heating.

Keywords
District heating; Risk assment; Pricing
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-6608 (URN)10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.064 (DOI)000276289500014 ()2-s2.0-77649190136 (Scopus ID)4936 (Local ID)4936 (Archive number)4936 (OAI)
Projects
STC
Available from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Borking, K., Danielson, M., Ekenberg, L., Idefeldt, J. & Larsson, A. (2009). Bortom Business Intelligence (1ed.). Stockholm: Sine Metu
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bortom Business Intelligence
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2009 (Swedish)Book (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Sine Metu, 2009. p. 157 Edition: 1
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-9987 (URN)978-91-978450-0-7 (ISBN)
Available from: 2009-10-07 Created: 2009-10-07 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Idefeldt, J. & Danielson, M. (2007). A Note on Tornado Diagrams in Interval Decision Analysis. In: Proceedings of the World Congress of Engineering 2007, IAENG: .
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Note on Tornado Diagrams in Interval Decision Analysis
2007 (English)In: Proceedings of the World Congress of Engineering 2007, IAENG, 2007Conference paper, Published paper (Other scientific)
Abstract [en]

The research efforts of the DECIDE Research Group have resulted in a decision tool capable of handling imprecise information in complex decision situations. Some of the research has been directed towards developing decision analytical algorithms and applying these algorithms in a graphical user interface. The decision tool takes intervals as well as comparative relations as input constraint, and is incorporating sensitivity analyses into the repre¬sentation, instead of applying separate sensitivity analyses on top of the evalua¬tion procedure. However, besides the built-in sensitivity analysis, a second form of sensitivity analysis could be useful in order to point out the most critical probabilities, values, or weights to the decision at hand. This paper deals with the problems and the implementation of interval tornado diagrams in a decision tool supporting interval probabilities, values, criteria weights, as well as com¬para¬tive relations.

Keywords
decision analysis, decision tree, imprecise information, tornado diagram
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-4213 (URN)4935 (Local ID)4935 (Archive number)4935 (OAI)
Available from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Idefeldt, J. (2007). An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making. (Doctoral dissertation). Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making
2007 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Despite the fact that unguided decision making might lead to inefficient and nonoptimal decisions, decisions made at organizational levels seldom utilise decisionanalytical tools. Several gaps between the decision-makers and the computer baseddecision tools exist, and a main problem in managerial decision-making involves the lack of information and precise objective data, i.e. uncertainty and imprecision may be inherent in the decision situation. We believe that this problem might be overcome by providing computer based decision tools capable of handling the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making. At present, nearly all decision analytic software is only able to handle precise input, and no known software is capable of handling full scale imprecision, i.e. imprecise probabilities, values and weights, in the form of interval and comparative statements. There are, however, some theories which are able to handle some kind of uncertainty, and which deal with computational and implementational issues, but if they are never actually operationalised, they are of little real use for a decision-maker. Therefore, a natural question is how a reasonable decision analytical framework can be built based on prevailing interval methods, thus dealing with the problems of uncertain and imprecise input? Further, will the interval approach actually prove useful? The framework presented herein handles theoretical foundations for, and implementations of, imprecise multi-level trees, multi-criteria, risk analysis, together with several different evaluation options. The framework supports interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, as well as comparative statements, also allowing for mixing probabilistic and multi-criteria decisions. The framework has also been field tested in a number of studies, proving the usefulness of the interval approach.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sundsvall: Mid Sweden University, 2007. p. 50
Series
Mid Sweden University doctoral thesis, ISSN 1652-893X ; 21
Keywords
decision tree, decision analysis, decision tool, imprecise reasoning, probability
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7147 (URN)978-91-85317-49-3 (ISBN)
Public defence
(English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2008-11-29 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Danielson, M., Ekenberg, L., Idefeldt, J. & Larsson, A. (2007). Using a Software Tool for Public Decision Analysis Analysis: the Case of Nacka Municipality. Decision Analysis, 4(2), 76-90
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using a Software Tool for Public Decision Analysis Analysis: the Case of Nacka Municipality
2007 (English)In: Decision Analysis, ISSN 1545-8490, Vol. 4(2), p. 76-90Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a case of interval decision analysis using a tool that takes advantage of interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, and is capable of handling comparative relations, i.e. interval statements on differences between variables. These statements are represented as constraints to the solution set and evaluated using a number of different evaluation methods, each serving the decision-maker with different insights of the decision problem. We demonstrate the applicability of the tool in a case study regarding three public infrastructure decision problems which had remained unresolved during a number of years.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
INFORMS/Highwire Press, 2007
Keywords
Interval decision analysis, public decision making, transparent decision process
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-1359 (URN)10.1287/deca.1070.0088 (DOI)4938 (Local ID)4938 (Archive number)4938 (OAI)
Projects
PI - Publika Informationssystem
Available from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Danielson, M., Ekenberg, L., Hansson, K., Idefeldt, J., Larsson, A., Påhlman, M., . . . Sundgren, D. (2006). Cross-Disciplinary Research in Analytic Decision Support Systems. In: 28th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces, 2006. (pp. 123-128).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Cross-Disciplinary Research in Analytic Decision Support Systems
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2006 (English)In: 28th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces, 2006., 2006, p. 123-128Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

A main problem in decision support contexts is that unguided decision making is difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to delivering decision support from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. A key observation, however, is that effective and efficient decision making is not easily achieved by using methods from one discipline only. This paper describes some efforts made by the DECIDE Research Group to approach DSS development and decision making tools in a cross-disciplinary way.

Keywords
Cross-Disciplinary Research, Analytic Decision Support Systems
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3846 (URN)4102 (Local ID)953-7138-05-4 (ISBN)4102 (Archive number)4102 (OAI)
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2008-09-30 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Idefeldt, J. & Danielson, M. (2006). Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Software for Uncertain and Imprecise Information. In: Proceedings of the 11th Annual Conference of Asia Pacific Decision Sciences Institute - INNOVATION & SERVICE EXCELLENCE FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT. Paper presented at 11th Annual Conference of the Asia-Pacific-Decision-Sciences-Institute, Jun 14-18, 2006, Kowloon, China (pp. 342-345).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Software for Uncertain and Imprecise Information
2006 (English)In: Proceedings of the 11th Annual Conference of Asia Pacific Decision Sciences Institute - INNOVATION & SERVICE EXCELLENCE FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, 2006, p. 342-345Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a multi-criteria decision tool built on theories of uncertainty representation and evaluation. The tool supports interval probabilities, interval values (utili¬ties), interval criteria weights, as well as com¬para¬tive statements, not requiring input on single variables, but rather allowing interval statements on differences between variables. The user input is represented as constraints to the solution set of the variables representing the decision problem. The problem is then evaluated using several available evaluation methods each giving a different perspective on the decision problem modeled. Instead of applying separate sensitivity analyses on top of the evalua¬tion, it tries to incorporate the sensitivity analyses into the repre¬sentation, making uncertainty a first-class citizen in the model. The support of interval and comparative state¬ments, in addition to embedded sensitivity analyses and optionally using separate probabilistic event trees for each criterion, makes the tool, to our knowledge, the first of its kind.

Keywords
decision tool, multi-criteria, decision analysis, imprecise information
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3425 (URN)000239342800092 ()3419 (Local ID)3419 (Archive number)3419 (OAI)
Conference
11th Annual Conference of the Asia-Pacific-Decision-Sciences-Institute, Jun 14-18, 2006, Kowloon, China
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2008-09-30 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Idefeldt, J., Larsson, A. & Danielsson, M. (2006). Preference Ordering Algorithms with Imprecise Expectations. In: Proceedings of IMECS 2006: . Paper presented at International Multiconference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, Jun 20-22, 2006, Kowloon, China (pp. 750-755).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Preference Ordering Algorithms with Imprecise Expectations
2006 (English)In: Proceedings of IMECS 2006, 2006, p. 750-755Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In imprecise domains the preference order of the alternatives is not straightforward to establish, due to possible overlapping of expected values among the alternatives. Nevertheless, such rankings are useful in decision analysis applications, as obtaining a ranking of alternatives is a way to gain an overview of the situation. The rankings presented in this paper represent overviews of a preference order of the alternatives based on their respective expected utility. The ranking can be either ordinal, focusing only on the ordering, or cardinal, also taking the differences in expected utility into account. The first set of procedures discussed is a cardinal ranking, which provides the user with expected utility intervals of the evaluated alternatives. This yields a more extensive overview with more detailed information. The second set of procedures discussed ordinal rankings of the alternatives based on three different approaches; 1) contraction based ranking, 2) intersection based ranking, and 3) focal point based ranking with indifference level. Finally, we show that regardless of ranking method their respective maximal elements all conform to the maximal element of the ordinal ranking. Hence, if the intention is to find a maximal element, it is sufficient to use either pointwise cardinal ranking or ordinal ranking with zero as indifference level.

Keywords
Decision analysis, alternative ranking, utility theory, imprecise information
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3775 (URN)000241357500140 ()2-s2.0-84888212505 (Scopus ID)4068 (Local ID)988-986713-3 (ISBN)4068 (Archive number)4068 (OAI)
Conference
International Multiconference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, Jun 20-22, 2006, Kowloon, China
Available from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Larsson, A. & Idefeldt, J. (2006). Representation and Evaluation of Influence Diagrams in a Common Framework for Interval Decision Analysis. In: Proceedings of IMECS 2006: . Paper presented at International Multiconference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, Jun 20-22, 2006, Kowloon, China (pp. 738-743).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Representation and Evaluation of Influence Diagrams in a Common Framework for Interval Decision Analysis
2006 (English)In: Proceedings of IMECS 2006, 2006, p. 738-743Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper present a method for inclusion of influence diagrams within a common framework for analysing decisions under risk supporting interval-valued user statements. The method of inclusion support both modeling and evaluation, and the evaluation is performed through a conversion of influence diagrams into decision tree frames holding symmetric decision trees. The qualitative and explicit modeling of probabilistic independence cause implicit comparative constraints between variables, constraints which must not be violated in order to obtain correct evaluation results.

Keywords
Decision evaluation, influence diagrams, imprecise information
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3257 (URN)000241357500138 ()2-s2.0-84888223103 (Scopus ID)3518 (Local ID)988-986713-3 (ISBN)3518 (Archive number)3518 (OAI)
Conference
International Multiconference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, Jun 20-22, 2006, Kowloon, China
Available from: 2008-09-30 Created: 2008-09-30 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
Larsson, A., Johansson [Idefeldt], J., Ekenberg, L. & Danielsson, M. (2005). Decision analysis with multiple objectives in a framework for evaluating imprecision. Paper presented at 17th International FLAIRS Conference, May 17-19, 2004, miami Beach, FL. International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 13(5), 495-509
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Decision analysis with multiple objectives in a framework for evaluating imprecision
2005 (English)In: International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, ISSN 0218-4885, Vol. 13, no 5, p. 495-509Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a decision tree evaluation method for analyzing multi-attribute decisions under risk, where information is numerically imprecise. The approach extends the use of additive and multiplicative utility functions for supporting evaluation of imprecise statements, relaxing requirements for precise estimates of decision parameters. Information is modeled in convex sets of utility and probability measures restricted by closed intervals. Evaluation is done relative to a set of rules, generalizing the concept of admissibility, computationally handled through optimization of aggregated utility functions. Pros and cons of two approaches, and tradeoffs in selecting a utility function, are discussed.

Keywords
Decision analysis, multi-attribute utility theory, decision tools; imprecise information
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-3398 (URN)000232867500003 ()3468 (Local ID)3468 (Archive number)3468 (OAI)
Conference
17th International FLAIRS Conference, May 17-19, 2004, miami Beach, FL
Note
17th International FLAIRS Conference, May 17-19, 2004, Miami Beach, FLAvailable from: 2008-11-23 Created: 2008-11-23 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved
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