miun.sePublications
Change search
Link to record
Permanent link

Direct link
BETA
Olsson, Leif
Alternative names
Publications (10 of 45) Show all publications
Zadmirzaei, M., Mohammadi Limaei, S., Amirteimoori, A. & Olsson, L. (2019). Measuring the relative performance of forest management units: A chance-constrained DEA model in the presence of the non-discretionary factor. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 49(7), 788-801
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Measuring the relative performance of forest management units: A chance-constrained DEA model in the presence of the non-discretionary factor
2019 (English)In: Canadian Journal of Forest Research, ISSN 0045-5067, E-ISSN 1208-6037, Vol. 49, no 7, p. 788-801Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In this study, we develop a marginal chance-constrained data envelopment analysis model in the presence of non-discretionary inputs and hybrid outputs for the first time. We call it a stochastic non-discretionary DEA model (SND-DEA), and it is developed to measure and compare the relative efficiency of forest management units under different environmental management systems. Furthermore, we apply an output-oriented DEA technology to both deterministic and stochastic scenarios. The required data are collected from 24 forest management plans (as decision-making units and included four inputs and equal amount of outputs. The findings of this practical research show that the modified SND-DEA model in different probability levels give us apparently different results compared to the output from pure deterministic models. However, when we calculate the correlation measure, the probability levels give us a strong positive correlation between stochastic and deterministic models. Therefore, approximately 40% of the forest management plans based on the applied SND-DEA model should substantially increase their average efficiency score. As the major conclusion, our developed SND-DEA model is a suitable improvement over previous developed models to discriminate the efficiency and/or the inefficiency of decision-making units to hedge against risk and uncertainty in this type of forest management problems.

Keywords
data envelopment analysis (DEA), discretionary and nondiscretionary factors, hybrid outputs, risk management in the presence of stochastic data, forest management
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-35629 (URN)10.1139/cjfr-2018-0229 (DOI)2-s2.0-85067554856 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2019-02-13 Created: 2019-02-13 Last updated: 2019-10-04Bibliographically approved
van Laere, J., Ibrahim, O., Larsson, A., Olsson, L., Johansson, B. & Gustavsson, P. (2018). Analyzing the implications of design choices in existing simulation-games for critical infrastructure resilience. In: Simulation Gaming: Applications For Sustainable Cities And Smart Infrastructures: . Paper presented at 48th conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association, ISAGA 2017, Delft, Netherlands, 10-14 july, 2017 (pp. 15-23). Springer, 10825
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analyzing the implications of design choices in existing simulation-games for critical infrastructure resilience
Show others...
2018 (English)In: Simulation Gaming: Applications For Sustainable Cities And Smart Infrastructures, Springer, 2018, Vol. 10825, p. 15-23Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2018
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Keywords
Critical infrastructures, Design choices, Gaming-simulation, Resilience, Simulation
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-31618 (URN)10.1007/978-3-319-91902-7_2 (DOI)000465823100002 ()2-s2.0-85048038239 (Scopus ID)978-3-319-91901-0 (ISBN)
Conference
48th conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association, ISAGA 2017, Delft, Netherlands, 10-14 july, 2017
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
Available from: 2017-09-14 Created: 2017-09-14 Last updated: 2019-05-22Bibliographically approved
Etembad, S., Mohammadi Limaei, S., Olsson, L. & Yousefpour, R. (2018). Decision making on Sustainable Forest Harvest Production Using Goal Programming Approach: Case study: Iranian Hyrcanian Forest. In: : . Paper presented at Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management conference (IEEM), Bangkok, Thailand, December 16-19 2018 (pp. 736-740). IEEE, Article ID 8607503.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Decision making on Sustainable Forest Harvest Production Using Goal Programming Approach: Case study: Iranian Hyrcanian Forest
2018 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This paper aims to determine the optimal stock level in Hyrcanian forest of Iran. In this study, a goal programming techniques used to estimate the optimum stock level of different tree species considering economics, environmental and social issues. We consider multiple objectives in the process of decision making to realize the balance of maximizing annual growth, net present value, carbon sequestration and labor. We use regression analysis to develop a forest growth model using allometric functions for the quantification of carbon budget. The expected mean price was estimated to determine the net present value of forest harvesting. We use Expert knowledge to weight the goals in order to generate the optimal stock level. Results show that the total optimum stock is 0.5% lower than based on questioners. The results indicate that goal programming is a suitable methodology in this case. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2018
Keywords
Multipurpose forest management, harvest scheduling, carbon sequestration, Hyrcanian forests
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-35089 (URN)10.1109/IEEM.2018.8607503 (DOI)000458674600148 ()2-s2.0-85061838956 (Scopus ID)
Conference
Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management conference (IEEM), Bangkok, Thailand, December 16-19 2018
Available from: 2018-12-07 Created: 2018-12-07 Last updated: 2019-10-07Bibliographically approved
Mohammadi, Z., Mohammadi Limaei, S., Lohmander, P. & Olsson, L. (2018). Estimation of a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian mixed species forests. Journal of Forestry Research, 29(5), 1205-1214
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimation of a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian mixed species forests
2018 (English)In: Journal of Forestry Research, ISSN 1007-662X, E-ISSN 1993-0607, Vol. 29, no 5, p. 1205-1214Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of this study was to estimate a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian forests. A survey was conducted in order to find a natural forest without any harvesting activities, a so called ‘untouched forest’ and an area was selected from the Iranian Caspian forest. Three sample plots in the same aspect and of the same forest type were selected. In each plot, total tree height, diameter at breast height, distance of neighbor trees and azimuth were measured. Thirty trees were selected and drilled with increment borer to determine the increment model. Regression analysis was used to estimate the growth model. Results show that, for individual trees, there is a significant nonlinear relationship between the annual basal area increment, as the dependent variable, and the basal area. The results also show that the basal area of competing trees has a positive influence on growth. That the increment is higher with more competing neighboring trees is possibly because plots with higher volume per hectare and more competition, most likely also have higher site index or better soil or better site productivity than the plot with lower volume per hectare.

Keywords
Basal area increment, Diameter growth, Regression analysis, Caspian forests
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-32214 (URN)10.1007/s11676-017-0556-7 (DOI)000438857300005 ()2-s2.0-85035801969 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2017-12-04 Created: 2017-12-04 Last updated: 2019-10-07Bibliographically approved
L'ecuer, P., Gustavsson, K. & Olsson, L. (2018). Modeling Bursts In The Arrival Process To An Emergency Call Center. In: M. Rabe, A. A. Juan, N. Mustafee, A. Skoogh, S. Jain, and B. Johansson, eds (Ed.), Proceedings of the 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: . Paper presented at 2018 Winter Simulation Conference, Gothenburg, Sweden, 9-12 December 2018 (pp. 525-- 536). IEEE, Article ID 8632536.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modeling Bursts In The Arrival Process To An Emergency Call Center
2018 (English)In: Proceedings of the 2018 Winter Simulation Conference / [ed] M. Rabe, A. A. Juan, N. Mustafee, A. Skoogh, S. Jain, and B. Johansson, eds, IEEE, 2018, p. 525-- 536, article id 8632536Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In emergency call centers (for police, firemen, ambulances) a single event can sometimes trigger many incoming calls in a short period of time. Several people may call to report the same fire or the same accident, for example. Such a sudden burst of incoming traffic can have a significant impact on the responsiveness of the call center for other events in the same period of time. We examine data from the SOS Alarm center in Sweden. We also build a stochastic model for the bursts. We show how to estimate the model parameters for each burst by maximum likelihood, how to model the multivariate distribution of those parameters using copulas, and how to simulate the burst process from this model. In our model, certain events trigger an arrival process of calls with a random time-varying rate over a finite period of time of random length.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2018
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-35611 (URN)10.1109/WSC.2018.8632536 (DOI)000461414100042 ()2-s2.0-85062638955 (Scopus ID)978-1-5386-6572-5 (ISBN)
Conference
2018 Winter Simulation Conference, Gothenburg, Sweden, 9-12 December 2018
Available from: 2019-02-08 Created: 2019-02-08 Last updated: 2019-05-20Bibliographically approved
Larsson, A., Ibrahim, O., Olsson, L. & van Laere, J. (2017). Agent Based Simulation of a Payment System for Resilience Assessments. In: : . Paper presented at 2017 IEEE International Conference in Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Singapore, 10-13 December, 2017 (pp. 314-318). IEEE
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Agent Based Simulation of a Payment System for Resilience Assessments
2017 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We provide an agent based simulation model of the Swedish payment system. The simulation model is to be used to analyze the consequences of loss of functionality, or disruptions of the payment system for the food and fuel supply chains as well as the bank sector. We propose a gaming simulation approach, using a computer based role playing game, to explore the collaborative responses from the key actors, in order to evoke and facilitate collective resilience.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2017
Series
International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management IEEM, ISSN 2157-3611
Keywords
Agent based modeling, food retailing, fuel retailing, gaming simulation, payment system, resilience, supply chain.
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-31553 (URN)000428267800065 ()2-s2.0-85045259561 (Scopus ID)978-1-5386-0948-4 (ISBN)
Conference
2017 IEEE International Conference in Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Singapore, 10-13 December, 2017
Projects
CCRAAAFFFTING
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
Available from: 2017-09-08 Created: 2017-09-08 Last updated: 2018-05-15Bibliographically approved
Zadmirazaei, M., Mohammadi Limaei, S., Olsson, L. & Amirteimoori, A. (2017). Assessing the impact of the external non-discretionary factor on the performance of forest management units using DEA approach. Journal of Forest Research, 22(3), 144-152
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessing the impact of the external non-discretionary factor on the performance of forest management units using DEA approach
2017 (English)In: Journal of Forest Research, ISSN 1341-6979, E-ISSN 1610-7403, Vol. 22, no 3, p. 144-152Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this paper is to measure the relative performance of forest management units, and to analyze the impact of the external non-discretionary (ND) factors on these units' technical efficiency. Toward this end, data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique in variable returns to scale environment with both discretionary and ND factors has been used. The required data are collected from 24 Iranian forest management units (as decision-making units (DMUs)) and included four inputs and two outputs. The ND factors are first ignored and it is shown that most of the forest management units are operating at high efficiency levels. Then the variable area is considered as the exogenously fixed (or the external ND) input in a modified ND model because it is outside of the forest manager's control. The results indicate that the number of efficient units and the average technical efficiency score are reduced to 12 (approximately 50%) and 0.85, respectively. The forest management units should therefore increase their average efficiency score by 0.15 to move onto the new efficient frontier which is made by applying this strict criterion. As a consequence, it is recommended to apply the ND models for controlling the exogenously fixed factors and carrying out a correct and accurate evaluation, because the traditional DEA approaches may overestimate the efficiency of DMUs.

Keywords
Efficiency, data envelopment analysis, input, output, non-discretionary factors, forest management
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-30562 (URN)10.1080/13416979.2017.1317227 (DOI)000401738100002 ()2-s2.0-85038084931 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2017-04-03 Created: 2017-04-03 Last updated: 2019-10-07Bibliographically approved
van Laere, J., Berggren, P., Gustavsson, P., Ibrahim, O., Johansson, B., Larsson, A., . . . Wiberg, C. (2017). Challenges for critical infrastructure resilience: cascading effects of payment system disruptions. In: Proceedings of the International ISCRAM Conference: . Paper presented at 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, May 21-24, Albi, France (pp. 281-292). ISCRAM, 2017-May
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Challenges for critical infrastructure resilience: cascading effects of payment system disruptions
Show others...
2017 (English)In: Proceedings of the International ISCRAM Conference, ISCRAM, 2017, Vol. 2017-May, p. 281-292Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Critical infrastructures become more and more entangled and rely extensively on information technology. A deeper insight into the relationships between critical infrastructures enables the actors involved to more quickly understand the severity of information technology disruptions and to identify robust cross-functional mitigating actions. This study illustrates how and why disruptions in the payment system in Sweden could create cascading effects in other critical infrastructures with potentially severe consequences for many citizens, government institutions and companies. Data from document studies, interviews and workshops with field experts reveal seven challenges for collective cross-functional critical infrastructure resilience that need to be dealt with: 1)Shortage of food, fuel, cash, medicine; 2) Limited capacity of alternative payment solutions; 3) Cities are more vulnerable than the countryside; 4) Economically vulnerable groups in society are more severely affected; 5)Trust maintenance needs; 6) Crisis communication needs; 7) Fragmentation of responsibility for critical infrastructures across many actors.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ISCRAM, 2017
Keywords
Collective resilience, Critical infrastructures, Payment system, Resilience
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-30488 (URN)2-s2.0-85030706059 (Scopus ID)
Conference
14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, May 21-24, Albi, France
Available from: 2017-03-23 Created: 2017-03-23 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
Mohammadi Limaei, S., Lohmander, P. & Olsson, L. (2017). Dynamic growth models for continuous cover multi species forestry in Iranian Caspian forests. Journal of Forest Science, 63(11), 519-529
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Dynamic growth models for continuous cover multi species forestry in Iranian Caspian forests
2017 (English)In: Journal of Forest Science, ISSN 1212-4834, E-ISSN 1805-935X, Vol. 63, no 11, p. 519-529Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study concerns some of the relevant topics of the Iranian Caspian forestry planning problem, in particular the first central components in this modelling process, such as forest modelling, forest statistics and growth function estimations. The required data such was collected from Iranian Caspian forests.  To do so, 201 sample plots were determined and the parameters such as number of tree, tree diameter at breast height  and trees height were measured at each sample plot. Three sample plots at different 3 elevations were chosen to measure the tree increment. Data has been used to estimate a modified logistic growth model and a model that describes the growth of basal area of individual trees as a function of basal area. General function analysis has been applied in combination with regression analysis. The results are interpreted from ecological perspectives. Furthermore, a dynamic multi species growth model theory is developed and analyzed with respect to dynamic behavior, equilibria, convergence and stability. Logistic growth models have been found useful in continuous cover forest management optimization. Optimization of management decisions in a changing and not perfectly predictable world should always be based on adaptive optimization.

Keywords
forest statistics, forest modelling, growth function, forest management
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-31551 (URN)10.17221/32/2017-JFS (DOI)2-s2.0-85037035909 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2017-09-08 Created: 2017-09-08 Last updated: 2019-10-07Bibliographically approved
Mohammadi, Z., Mohammadi Limaei, S., Lohmander, P. & Olsson, L. (2017). Estimating the aboveground carbon sequestration and its economic value: case study: Iranian Caspian Forests. Journal of Forest Research, 63(11), 511-518
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimating the aboveground carbon sequestration and its economic value: case study: Iranian Caspian Forests
2017 (English)In: Journal of Forest Research, ISSN 1341-6979, E-ISSN 1610-7403, Vol. 63, no 11, p. 511-518Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of the study is to estimate the aboveground carbon sequestration and to determine the economicvalue of forests in carbon sequestration as a way of mitigating climate change. This research was conductedat Asalem forests in the north of Iran. In order to estimate the amount of annual carbon sequestration, theannual volume growth of stand was determined using the diameter increment data and tariff. The amount ofcarbon sequestration was estimated based on wood density and using the allometric equation. The carbonmodel was obtained for each species. The value of sequestrated carbon in stumpage and the net present valueof carbon sequestration were determined in order to estimate the economic value of carbon sequestration.Results indicated that the annual volume growth per hectare and the carbon stored are 6.023 m3·yr–1 and2.307 t·ha–1, respectively. Finally, the carbon sequestration value of stumpage and the net present value ofcarbon sequestration are 11,023.753 and 790.361 (10,000 IRR·t–1·ha–1), respectively. Our results are very usefulin estimating the total economic value of Asalem forests and other Iranian Caspian forests in the future.

Keywords
allometric equation; economic value of carbon; density of wood; forest inventory
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-31550 (URN)10.17221/88/2017-JFS (DOI)2-s2.0-85037053363 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2017-09-08 Created: 2017-09-08 Last updated: 2019-10-07Bibliographically approved
Organisations

Search in DiVA

Show all publications