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Danielson, M., Ekenberg, L. & Larsson, A. (2020). A second-order-based decision tool for evaluating decisions under conditions of severe uncertainty. Knowledge-Based Systems, 191, Article ID 105219.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A second-order-based decision tool for evaluating decisions under conditions of severe uncertainty
2020 (English)In: Knowledge-Based Systems, ISSN 0950-7051, E-ISSN 1872-7409, Vol. 191, article id 105219Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The requirement to assign precise numerical values to model entities such as criteria weights, probabilities, and utilities is too strong in most real-life decision situations, and hence alternative representations and evaluation mechanisms are important to consider. In this paper, we discuss the DecideIT 3.0 state-of-the-art software decision tool and demonstrate its functionality using a real-life case. The tool is based on a belief mass interpretation of the decision information, where the components are imprecise by means of intervals and qualitative estimates, and we discuss how multiplicative and additive aggregations influence the resulting distribution over the expected values. 

Keywords
Decision analysis, Decision software, Imprecise criteria weights, Imprecise probabilities
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-38203 (URN)10.1016/j.knosys.2019.105219 (DOI)000517663200003 ()2-s2.0-85075451496 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2020-01-10 Created: 2020-01-10 Last updated: 2020-03-19Bibliographically approved
Fasth, T., Bohman, S., Larsson, A., Ekenberg, L. & Danielson, M. (2020). Portfolio Decision Analysis for Evaluating Stakeholder Conflicts in Land Use Planning. Group Decision and Negotiation, 29, 321-343
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Portfolio Decision Analysis for Evaluating Stakeholder Conflicts in Land Use Planning
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2020 (English)In: Group Decision and Negotiation, ISSN 0926-2644, E-ISSN 1572-9907, Vol. 29, p. 321-343Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Urban planning typically involves multiple actors and stakeholders with conflicting opinions and diverging preferences. The proposed development plans and actions greatly affect the quality of life of the local community at different spatial scales and time horizons. Consequently, it is important for decision-makers to understand and analyse the conflicting needs and priorities of the local community. This paper presents a decision analytic framework for evaluating stakeholder conflicts in urban planning. First, the stakeholders state their preferences regarding the actions in terms of a set of criteria and estimate the weight of each criterion. Then, a conflict index and overall value for each action is calculated. Next, a set of Pareto efficient portfolios of actions are generated by solving an optimization problem with different levels of conflict as a resource constraint. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the actions is performed. The framework is demonstrated using real-world survey data collected in the municipality of Upplands Vasby, Sweden.

Keywords
Multiple criteria decision analysis, Portfolio decision analysis, Conflict analysis, Optimization, Urban planning
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-38617 (URN)10.1007/s10726-020-09656-4 (DOI)000516011100002 ()
Available from: 2020-03-11 Created: 2020-03-11 Last updated: 2020-03-27
Samstad, A., Sundberg, L. & Larsson, A. (2019). Assessing Stakeholder Preferences in Urban Planning: A Multi-Attribute Utility Approach. In: IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management: . Paper presented at The 2019 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering & Engineering Management (IEEM), Macau, China (pp. 1417-1421). IEEE, Article ID 8978881.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessing Stakeholder Preferences in Urban Planning: A Multi-Attribute Utility Approach
2019 (English)In: IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEE, 2019, p. 1417-1421, article id 8978881Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In urban planning, decision makers often need to take a variety of aspects into account, including stakeholder attitudes. The purpose of this paper is to compare how decision makers and the public assess different criteria in an urban planning project. The study was carried out through interviews and a survey about an urban planning project. By compiling data using multi-attribute utility theory, it was possible to reveal similarities and differences between the decision makers and the public. The findings reveal that the perceived value of the project differed greatly between these two perspectives: The public’s opinion was closer to a status quo perspective, while the decision makers were more optimistic about the project. While some of the differences can partly be explained by uncertainty about the project and the criteria, the results reveal the importance of including thepublic in an early stage of these initiatives. Furthermore, the multi-attribute utility approach is a useful tool for compiling assessments, but additional data is needed for gaining further understanding of stakeholder preferences. Therefore, a mixed-methods approach to collecting stakeholder preferences is suggested.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2019
Keywords
urban planning, decision making, stakeholders, mcda
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-37853 (URN)10.1109/IEEM44572.2019.8978881 (DOI)2-s2.0-85079690861 (Scopus ID)
Conference
The 2019 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering & Engineering Management (IEEM), Macau, China
Available from: 2019-12-03 Created: 2019-12-03 Last updated: 2020-03-16Bibliographically approved
Sundberg, L. & Larsson, A. (2019). What is the value of digital services?: Data from a Swedish municipality. In: Proceedings of the European Conference on Digital Government, ECDG: . Paper presented at 19th European Conference on Digital Government, ECDG 2019, Nicosia, Cyrpus, 24 October 2019 through 25 October 2019 (pp. 258-263). Academic Conferences Limited
Open this publication in new window or tab >>What is the value of digital services?: Data from a Swedish municipality
2019 (English)In: Proceedings of the European Conference on Digital Government, ECDG, Academic Conferences Limited , 2019, p. 258-263Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this paper is to link two strands of research and apply them to digital services: public values and risk research. The research is carried out by administering a survey to the employees of a Swedish municipality. The survey items are based on prior theories on value positions and risks. These items are then subject to statistical analysis through comparisons of means and structural equation modelling (SEM). The findings reveal differences in values associated with the services, and variances among groups of employees. Moreover, the results suggest that while the value positions are related to each other, they differ in risk perceptions. The paper concludes with suggesting that e-service development benefits from including multiple perspectives to achieve a balance between value realization and risk management. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Academic Conferences Limited, 2019
Keywords
Digital services, E-services, Perceptions, Risks, Values
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-38194 (URN)10.34190/ECDG.19.024 (DOI)2-s2.0-85075274676 (Scopus ID)9781912764402 (ISBN)
Conference
19th European Conference on Digital Government, ECDG 2019, Nicosia, Cyrpus, 24 October 2019 through 25 October 2019
Available from: 2020-01-08 Created: 2020-01-08 Last updated: 2020-02-24Bibliographically approved
Talantsev, A., Larsson, A. & Sundgren, D. (2018). A new method for context factors analysis in international development project planning. International Journal of Applied Management Science, 10(4), 290-318
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A new method for context factors analysis in international development project planning
2018 (English)In: International Journal of Applied Management Science, ISSN 1755-8913, E-ISSN 1755-8921, Vol. 10, no 4, p. 290-318Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The long-term success or failure of a development project is largely shaped by the external context. Therefore, assessment of factors influencing fulfilment of long-term development outcomes is vital for better project planning. In recent decades, the logical framework (logframe) has de facto become a standard tool for planning and managing development interventions. While the logframe requires identification of assumptions and risks regarding the external context, it does not suggest ways to analyse them in a conventional risk assessment manner. Also, the log-frame has been criticised for ignoring uncertainty in project environment along with neglecting external opportunities. Therefore, in this paper we suggest a method for project context analysis that extends the log-frame with scenarios analysis and address aforementioned shortcomings. We implement and demonstrate the application of the method on an international aid development project, discuss the method's potential use-cases, specific limitations and future development.

Keywords
Project success factors, context factors, project uncertainty, project risk analysis, logical framework approach, LFA, Monte Carlo simulation.
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34627 (URN)10.1504/IJAMS.2018.10015877 (DOI)2-s2.0-85054476512 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-10-05 Created: 2018-10-05 Last updated: 2018-12-06Bibliographically approved
van Laere, J., Berggren, P., Ibrahim, O., Larsson, A. & Kallin, S. (2018). A simulation-game to explore collective critical infrastructure resilience. In: Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018: . Paper presented at 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018, Trondheim, Norway, 17 June 2018 through 21 June 2018 (pp. 1305-1312). CRC Press/Balkema
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A simulation-game to explore collective critical infrastructure resilience
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2018 (English)In: Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World - Proceedings of the 28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018, CRC Press/Balkema , 2018, p. 1305-1312Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Resilience of interdependent infrastructures increasingly depends on collaborative responses from actors with diverse backgrounds that may not be familiar with cascade effects into areas beyond their own sector. A simulation-game can enable societal actors to obtain a deeper understanding of the interdependencies between their infrastructures and their respective crisis responses. Following a design science approach, a simulation-game has been developed that combines role-playing simulation and computer simulation. The simulation-game challenges participants to address the interaction between payment disruptions, food and fuel supply, security problems (riots, robberies) and communication challenges (preventing hoarding). A number of crucial design choices were handled while developing the simulation-game. The main design challenges were: How to validate an unthinkable escalation scenario?; How to give the simulation a sufficient level of detail on all aspects and keep the complexity graspable so it can be played instantly?; and How much time should each playing round take?

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
CRC Press/Balkema, 2018
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-35406 (URN)2-s2.0-85058096731 (Scopus ID)9780815386827 (ISBN)
Conference
28th International European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018, Trondheim, Norway, 17 June 2018 through 21 June 2018
Available from: 2019-01-08 Created: 2019-01-08 Last updated: 2019-01-08Bibliographically approved
van Laere, J., Ibrahim, O., Larsson, A., Olsson, L., Johansson, B. & Gustavsson, P. (2018). Analyzing the implications of design choices in existing simulation-games for critical infrastructure resilience. In: Simulation Gaming: Applications For Sustainable Cities And Smart Infrastructures: . Paper presented at 48th conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association, ISAGA 2017, Delft, Netherlands, 10-14 july, 2017 (pp. 15-23). Springer, 10825
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analyzing the implications of design choices in existing simulation-games for critical infrastructure resilience
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2018 (English)In: Simulation Gaming: Applications For Sustainable Cities And Smart Infrastructures, Springer, 2018, Vol. 10825, p. 15-23Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2018
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Keywords
Critical infrastructures, Design choices, Gaming-simulation, Resilience, Simulation
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-31618 (URN)10.1007/978-3-319-91902-7_2 (DOI)000465823100002 ()2-s2.0-85048038239 (Scopus ID)978-3-319-91901-0 (ISBN)
Conference
48th conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association, ISAGA 2017, Delft, Netherlands, 10-14 july, 2017
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
Available from: 2017-09-14 Created: 2017-09-14 Last updated: 2019-05-22Bibliographically approved
Ekener, E., Hansson, J., Larsson, A. & Peck, P. (2018). Developing Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment methodology by applying values-based sustainability weighting - Tested on biomass based and fossil transportation fuels. Journal of Cleaner Production, 181, 337-351
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Developing Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment methodology by applying values-based sustainability weighting - Tested on biomass based and fossil transportation fuels
2018 (English)In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 181, p. 337-351Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The production and use of transportation fuels can lead to sustainability impacts. Assessing them simultaneously in a holistic way is a challenge. This paper examines methodology for assessing the sustainability performance of products in a more integrated way, including a broad range of social impacts. Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) methodology is applied for this assessment. LSCA often constitutes of the integration of results from social LCA (S-LCA), environmental life cycle assessment (E-LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). In this study, an S-LCA from an earlier project is extended with a positive social aspect, as well as refined and detailed. E-LCA and LCC results are built from LCA database and literature. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology is applied to integrate the results from the three different assessments into an LCSA. The weighting of key sustainability dimensions in the MCDA is performed in different ways, where the sustainability dimensions are prioritized differently priority based on the assumed values of different stakeholder profiles (Egalitarian, Hierarchist, and Individualist). The developed methodology is tested on selected biomass based and fossil transportation fuels - ethanol produced from Brazilian sugarcane and US corn/maize, and petrol produced from Russian and Nigerian crude oils, where it delineates differences in sustainability performance between products assessed. The outcome in terms of relative ranking of the transportation fuel chains based on sustainability performance differs when applying different decision-maker profiles. This result highlights and supports views that there is no one single answer regarding which of the alternatives that is most sustainable. Rather, it depends strongly upon the worldview and values held by the decision maker. A key conclusion is that sustainability assessments should pay more attention to potential differences in underlying values held by key stakeholders in relevant societal contexts. The LCSA methodology still faces challenges regarding results integration but MCDA in combination with stakeholder profiles appears to be a useful approach to build on further.

Keywords
LCSA, Weighting, Values, Stakeholders, Transport, Biofuels
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34410 (URN)10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.01.211 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-09-13 Created: 2018-09-13 Last updated: 2018-09-17Bibliographically approved
Komendantova, N., Ekenberg, L., Marashdeh, L., Al-Salaymeh, A., Danielson, M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., . . . Karlgren, J. (2018). Energy for the Future: Evaluating different electricity-generation technologies against selected performance characteristics and stakeholder preferences: Insights from the case study in Jordan. Bonn: Bonn International Center for Conversion GmbH
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Energy for the Future: Evaluating different electricity-generation technologies against selected performance characteristics and stakeholder preferences: Insights from the case study in Jordan
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2018 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Currently, energy policy in Jordan is facing the challenge of having to cover the country’s electricity demand which is growing because of different factors, among them population growth, cooling of houses, desalination, large consumption centres and industry. The goal to provide reliable and affordable electricity includes diversification of electricity-generation sources from extensive reliance on fossil fuel imports to the generation of electricity from locally available resources, such as renewable energy sources but also nuclear energy and shale oil.  Energy transition towards a more significant share of domestically generated resources will inevitably lead to a societal transformation in Jordan, which will affect interests of existing and emerging electricity-generation industries and other stakeholders. To be sustainable, such a transition should also address issues of environmental protection and its contribution to socio-economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to develop compromise solutions to mitigate the risk that differences in views about electricity-generation technologies needed for energy transition will turn into conflicting opinions. Also, energy transition should address not only national energy security targets, but it should also integrate interests of local communities in the vicinity of future electricity-generation and transmission infrastructure.  This report is based on the assumption that human factors play an important role in energy transition. These human factors include perceptions of different risks connected with the use of certain technologies as well as views about benefits and impacts generated by different technologies. An innovative methodology was developed to address these views. This methodology allows us to assess the relevance of Jordan’s electricity-generation technologies, such as utility-scale photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), onshore wind, utility-scale hydro-electric, bituminous coal, heavy fuel oil, shale oil and natural gas against a set of criteria, which reflect environmental, social and economic components of sustainable development.  The results show that stakeholders prefer utility PV technology over all other technologies. The results also show that at the time of writing, the discourse in Jordanian society is dominated by economic rationality, such as electricity costs, supported by concerns about safety during operation and maintenance of electricity-generation power plans. The results also show a strong desire of all stakeholder groups for an opportunity to engage in decision-making processes on energy transition as the alternative of being simply compensated for the installation of electricity-generation and -transmission technologies does not appeal to local communities. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bonn: Bonn International Center for Conversion GmbH, 2018. p. 115
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34592 (URN)
Available from: 2018-10-03 Created: 2018-10-03 Last updated: 2018-10-03Bibliographically approved
Olausson, P. M., Björkqvist, O., Danielsson, E., Große, C., Larsson, A., Nyhlén, J. & Wallman Lundåsen, S. (2018). Från myndighet till medborgare och tillbaka: En studie av samverkan och kommunikation inomramen för STYREL. Eskilstuna: Energimyndigheten
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Från myndighet till medborgare och tillbaka: En studie av samverkan och kommunikation inomramen för STYREL
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2018 (Swedish)Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Alternative title[en]
From authority to citizens and back: A study of the interaction and communication in the context ofSTYREL
Abstract [sv]

STYREL är en planeringsprocess som syftar till att säkra elförsörjningen vid ensituation av elbrist. Att STYREL är en viktig planeringsprocess med stor betydelseför att trygga elförsörjningen till samhällsviktiga elanvändare är en uppfattningsamtliga intervjuade uttrycker. Samtidigt råder det också konsensus kring attprocessen är i behov av utveckling och förändring för att uppnå de syften somligger bakom processen.Empirin för undersökningen har utgjorts av centrala dokument och utredningar,65 intervjuer, deltagande observation samt deltagande vid möten ochnätverksträffar inom ramen för planeringsprocessen. Den kritiska granskningen avprocessen visar att det finns flera förbättringsområden som bör beaktas i syfte atthöja kvaliteten och minska risken för att viktiga samhällsfunktioner blir utan elvid en situation av elbrist. De områden som särskilt lyfts fram i studien handlarom nödvändigheten av att integrera löpande feedback i planeringssystemet, attskapa nätverk på både lokal och regional nivå för att tillförsäkra att intesamhällsviktiga privata aktörer eller aktörer inom det civila samhället faller bort iplaneringen samt att ytterligare tydliggöra de olika stegen och de olika rollerna iplaneringssystemet. I detta arbete går det att finna lösningar som redan beprövatsdels i jämförelse med internationella processer kring kritisk infrastruktur, dels inationella processer inom krishanteringssystemet.

Abstract [en]

STYREL is a planning process aiming at ensuring electricity supply to sociallyimportant objects during a situation of power shortage. The fact that STYREL is animportant planning process with great importance for securing the electricitysupply to important users of electricity is an opinion all the interviewees express.At the same time, there is also a consensus that the process is in need ofdevelopment and change in order to achieve the aims behind the process.The empirical study included documents, investigations, 65 interviews,participatory observation and participation in meetings and network meetingswithin the framework of the planning process. The critical review shows that thereare several areas of improvement to consider that could increase the quality andreduce the risk of important social functions becoming without electricity during aperiod of power shortage. The areas that are particularly highlighted in the studyconcern the necessity of integrating recurring feedback into the planning system,creating networks at both local and regional level to ensure that private-sector orimportant civil society actors is excluded and finally, further clarify the varioussteps and the different roles in the planning system. This can be achievedcomparing with international planning systems on critical infrastructure and withnational planning systems within the crisis management systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Eskilstuna: Energimyndigheten, 2018. p. 32
Keywords
Flernivåstyrning, planeringsprocess, krisberedskap, trygg elförsörjning, kritisk infrastruktur, komplex systemstyrning, nätverk-styrning
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-35904 (URN)
Projects
Från myndighet till medborgare och tillbaka: En studie av samverkan och kommunikation inom ramen för STYREL
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 40307-1
Available from: 2019-03-29 Created: 2019-03-29 Last updated: 2019-08-06
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-0310-0018

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