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Talantsev, A., Larsson, A. & Sundgren, D. (2018). A new method for context factors analysis in international development project planning. International Journal of Applied Management Science, 10(4), 290-318
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A new method for context factors analysis in international development project planning
2018 (English)In: International Journal of Applied Management Science, ISSN 1755-8913, E-ISSN 1755-8921, Vol. 10, no 4, p. 290-318Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The long-term success or failure of a development project is largely shaped by the external context. Therefore, assessment of factors influencing fulfilment of long-term development outcomes is vital for better project planning. In recent decades, the logical framework (logframe) has de facto become a standard tool for planning and managing development interventions. While the logframe requires identification of assumptions and risks regarding the external context, it does not suggest ways to analyse them in a conventional risk assessment manner. Also, the log-frame has been criticised for ignoring uncertainty in project environment along with neglecting external opportunities. Therefore, in this paper we suggest a method for project context analysis that extends the log-frame with scenarios analysis and address aforementioned shortcomings. We implement and demonstrate the application of the method on an international aid development project, discuss the method's potential use-cases, specific limitations and future development.

Keywords
Project success factors, context factors, project uncertainty, project risk analysis, logical framework approach, LFA, Monte Carlo simulation.
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34627 (URN)10.1504/IJAMS.2018.10015877 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-10-05 Created: 2018-10-05 Last updated: 2018-10-05Bibliographically approved
van Laere, J., Ibrahim, O., Larsson, A., Olsson, L., Johansson, B. & Gustavsson, P. (2018). Analyzing the implications of design choices in existing simulation-games for critical infrastructure resilience. In: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics): . Paper presented at 48th conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association, ISAGA 2017, Delft, Netherlands, 10-14 july, 2017 (pp. 15-23). Springer, 10825
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Analyzing the implications of design choices in existing simulation-games for critical infrastructure resilience
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2018 (English)In: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), Springer, 2018, Vol. 10825, p. 15-23Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2018
Series
Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Keywords
Critical infrastructures, Design choices, Gaming-simulation, Resilience, Simulation
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-31618 (URN)10.1007/978-3-319-91902-7_2 (DOI)2-s2.0-85048038239 (Scopus ID)978-3-319-91901-0 (ISBN)
Conference
48th conference of the International Simulation and Gaming Association, ISAGA 2017, Delft, Netherlands, 10-14 july, 2017
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
Available from: 2017-09-14 Created: 2017-09-14 Last updated: 2018-09-27Bibliographically approved
Ekener, E., Hansson, J., Larsson, A. & Peck, P. (2018). Developing Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment methodology by applying values-based sustainability weighting - Tested on biomass based and fossil transportation fuels. Journal of Cleaner Production, 181, 337-351
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Developing Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment methodology by applying values-based sustainability weighting - Tested on biomass based and fossil transportation fuels
2018 (English)In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 181, p. 337-351Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The production and use of transportation fuels can lead to sustainability impacts. Assessing them simultaneously in a holistic way is a challenge. This paper examines methodology for assessing the sustainability performance of products in a more integrated way, including a broad range of social impacts. Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) methodology is applied for this assessment. LSCA often constitutes of the integration of results from social LCA (S-LCA), environmental life cycle assessment (E-LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). In this study, an S-LCA from an earlier project is extended with a positive social aspect, as well as refined and detailed. E-LCA and LCC results are built from LCA database and literature. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology is applied to integrate the results from the three different assessments into an LCSA. The weighting of key sustainability dimensions in the MCDA is performed in different ways, where the sustainability dimensions are prioritized differently priority based on the assumed values of different stakeholder profiles (Egalitarian, Hierarchist, and Individualist). The developed methodology is tested on selected biomass based and fossil transportation fuels - ethanol produced from Brazilian sugarcane and US corn/maize, and petrol produced from Russian and Nigerian crude oils, where it delineates differences in sustainability performance between products assessed. The outcome in terms of relative ranking of the transportation fuel chains based on sustainability performance differs when applying different decision-maker profiles. This result highlights and supports views that there is no one single answer regarding which of the alternatives that is most sustainable. Rather, it depends strongly upon the worldview and values held by the decision maker. A key conclusion is that sustainability assessments should pay more attention to potential differences in underlying values held by key stakeholders in relevant societal contexts. The LCSA methodology still faces challenges regarding results integration but MCDA in combination with stakeholder profiles appears to be a useful approach to build on further.

Keywords
LCSA, Weighting, Values, Stakeholders, Transport, Biofuels
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34410 (URN)10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.01.211 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-09-13 Created: 2018-09-13 Last updated: 2018-09-17Bibliographically approved
Komendantova, N., Ekenberg, L., Marashdeh, L., Al-Salaymeh, A., Danielson, M., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., . . . Karlgren, J. (2018). Energy for the Future: Evaluating different electricity-generation technologies against selected performance characteristics and stakeholder preferences: Insights from the case study in Jordan. Bonn: Bonn International Center for Conversion GmbH
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Energy for the Future: Evaluating different electricity-generation technologies against selected performance characteristics and stakeholder preferences: Insights from the case study in Jordan
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2018 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Currently, energy policy in Jordan is facing the challenge of having to cover the country’s electricity demand which is growing because of different factors, among them population growth, cooling of houses, desalination, large consumption centres and industry. The goal to provide reliable and affordable electricity includes diversification of electricity-generation sources from extensive reliance on fossil fuel imports to the generation of electricity from locally available resources, such as renewable energy sources but also nuclear energy and shale oil.  Energy transition towards a more significant share of domestically generated resources will inevitably lead to a societal transformation in Jordan, which will affect interests of existing and emerging electricity-generation industries and other stakeholders. To be sustainable, such a transition should also address issues of environmental protection and its contribution to socio-economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to develop compromise solutions to mitigate the risk that differences in views about electricity-generation technologies needed for energy transition will turn into conflicting opinions. Also, energy transition should address not only national energy security targets, but it should also integrate interests of local communities in the vicinity of future electricity-generation and transmission infrastructure.  This report is based on the assumption that human factors play an important role in energy transition. These human factors include perceptions of different risks connected with the use of certain technologies as well as views about benefits and impacts generated by different technologies. An innovative methodology was developed to address these views. This methodology allows us to assess the relevance of Jordan’s electricity-generation technologies, such as utility-scale photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), onshore wind, utility-scale hydro-electric, bituminous coal, heavy fuel oil, shale oil and natural gas against a set of criteria, which reflect environmental, social and economic components of sustainable development.  The results show that stakeholders prefer utility PV technology over all other technologies. The results also show that at the time of writing, the discourse in Jordanian society is dominated by economic rationality, such as electricity costs, supported by concerns about safety during operation and maintenance of electricity-generation power plans. The results also show a strong desire of all stakeholder groups for an opportunity to engage in decision-making processes on energy transition as the alternative of being simply compensated for the installation of electricity-generation and -transmission technologies does not appeal to local communities. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Bonn: Bonn International Center for Conversion GmbH, 2018. p. 115
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34592 (URN)
Available from: 2018-10-03 Created: 2018-10-03 Last updated: 2018-10-03Bibliographically approved
Ekenberg, L., Fasth, T. & Larsson, A. (2018). Hazards and Quality Control in Humanitarian Demining. International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 35(4), 897-913
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hazards and Quality Control in Humanitarian Demining
2018 (English)In: International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, ISSN 0265-671X, E-ISSN 1758-6682, Vol. 35, no 4, p. 897-913Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the adequacy of International Mine Action Standards 09.20 (IMAS 09.20) and the used standards ISO 2859 in the context of demining. The authors show how the actual quality level acceptable quality limit (AQL) significantly affects the average total quality cost for one lot with a single sampling plan and, consequently, the average total quality cost, and as AQL increases, the cost of rejecting a lot and the cost of sampling increase. The sampling plans for demining are not always optimal given economical and other concerns and that other mechanisms should be considered. Addressing opportunity costs for adopting wide samplings plans instead of clearing uncleared land per default, as well as balancing producer and consumer consequences seems, therefore, to be highly relevant from a socio-economical perspective. The general understanding of quality management and the systems involved are limited within the mine action sector. IMAS and most national mine action standards provide only a fairly narrow description of the issue. This implies that the field is missing opportunities to achieve efficiency and effectiveness, as well as to learn from and improve upon past experiences. The authors demonstrate herein that sampling provides little additional confidence as to whether a particular area is free from explosive hazards and substantial savings can be made compared to the current practice.

Keywords
Quality control, Risk analysis, Demining, Land release
National Category
Information Systems Other Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34411 (URN)10.1108/IJQRM-01-2016-0012 (DOI)
Available from: 2018-09-13 Created: 2018-09-13 Last updated: 2018-09-14Bibliographically approved
Fasth, T., Larsson, A., Ekenberg, L. & Danielson, M. (2018). Measuring Conflicts Using Cardinal Ranking: An Application to Decision Analytic Conflict Evaluations. Advances in Operations Research, 2018, Article ID 8290434.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Measuring Conflicts Using Cardinal Ranking: An Application to Decision Analytic Conflict Evaluations
2018 (English)In: Advances in Operations Research, ISSN 1687-9147, E-ISSN 1687-9155, Vol. 2018, article id 8290434Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

One of the core complexities involved in evaluating decision alternatives in the area of public decision-making is to deal with conflicts. The stakeholders affected by and involved in the decision often have conflicting preferences regarding the actions under consideration. For an executive authority, these differences of opinion can be problematic, during both implementation and communication, even though the decision is rational with respect to an attribute set perceived to represent social welfare. It is therefore important to involve the stakeholders in the process and to get an understanding of their preferences. Otherwise, the stakeholder disagreement can lead to costly conflicts. One way of approaching this problem is to provide means for comprehensive, yet effective stakeholder preference elicitation methods, where the stakeholders can state their preferences with respect to actions part of the current agenda of a government. In this paper we contribute two supporting methods: (i) an application of the cardinal ranking (CAR) method for preference elicitation for conflict evaluations and (ii) two conflict indices for measuring stakeholder conflicts. The application of the CAR method utilizes a do nothing alternative to differentiate between positive and negative actions. The elicited preferences can then be used as input to the two conflict indices indicating the level of conflict within a stakeholder group or between two stakeholder groups. The contributed methods are demonstrated in a real-life example carried out in the municipality of Upplands Väsby, Sweden. We show how a questionnaire can be used to elicit preferences with CAR and how the indices can be used to semantically describe the level of consensus and conflict regarding a certain attribute. As such, we show how the methods can provide decision aid in the clarification of controversies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Hindawi Publishing Corporation, 2018
Keywords
Urban planning, decision analysis, conflict analysis
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-34552 (URN)10.1155/2018/8290434 (DOI)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas
Available from: 2018-09-28 Created: 2018-09-28 Last updated: 2018-09-28Bibliographically approved
Larsson, A., Fasth, T., Wärnhjelm, M., Ekenberg, L. & Danielson, M. (2018). Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 25(3-4), 55-66
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Policy analysis on the fly with an online multicriteria cardinal ranking tool
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2018 (English)In: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, ISSN 1057-9214, E-ISSN 1099-1360, Vol. 25, no 3-4, p. 55-66Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper reports upon the deliverables and learnings from a project within decision analysis for participatory planning and policy analysis on the municipal level. The project aimed to develop and utilize an online multicriteria decision analysis tool for evaluations of policy alternatives with respect to municipal commercial development policies, acknowledging the objectives and preferences from various local and national stakeholders. The tool itself relied solely on that the users supplied cardinal ranking statements in the appraisal of alternatives and in the ranking of criteria and the surrounding method has been used in three cases. In each case, several significant insights obtained in the decision-modelling workshops were emphasized by the participants. The better understanding of the general decision situation, preference structures, and possible strategies was highly appreciated. The perception was also that this enabled a better understanding of conflicting issues, even when these were not entirely resolved. 

Keywords
Criteria rankings, Decision tool, Group decision making, Imprecise information, Policymaking, Urban planning
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-33633 (URN)10.1002/mcda.1634 (DOI)000437286700001 ()
Note

First published: 10 April 2018 

Available from: 2018-05-15 Created: 2018-05-15 Last updated: 2018-08-13Bibliographically approved
Ibrahim, O. & Larsson, A. (2017). A systems tool for structuring public policy problems and design of policy options. International Journal of Electronic Governance, 9(1-2), 4-26
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A systems tool for structuring public policy problems and design of policy options
2017 (English)In: International Journal of Electronic Governance, ISSN 1742-7509, E-ISSN 1742-7517, Vol. 9, no 1-2, p. 4-26Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Systems analysis allows quantitative empirical testing of models that exist in the study of public policy. Simulation and visualisation techniques can help policy makers to reduce uncertainties on the possible impacts of policies. This paper presents a new tool for systems modelling and simulation of policy problems to support the problem analysis, the design of policy options and impact assessment activities. The tool facilitates the cognitive activity of representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling by defining standards and a procedure for policy modelling. We propose a new policy-oriented problem structuring method (PSM), the 'labelled causal mapping'. The method supports scenario-based dynamic simulation and provides graphical representations of the involved actors, key variables, control flows and causal dependencies in a policy decision situation. A web-based tool prototype has been implemented in a Node.js environment. Two real policy problems are presented for demonstration of the use of the prototype.

Keywords
Causal mapping, European Union, Exploratory modelling, Gaming simulation, Impact assessment, Policy options, Problem structuring, Public policy analysis, Scenario planning, Systems thinking, Visualisation
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-31383 (URN)10.1504/IJEG.2017.084646 (DOI)2-s2.0-85021086324 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2017-08-11 Created: 2017-08-11 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
Larsson, A., Ibrahim, O., Olsson, L. & van Laere, J. (2017). Agent Based Simulation of a Payment System for Resilience Assessments. In: : . Paper presented at 2017 IEEE International Conference in Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Singapore, 10-13 December, 2017 (pp. 314-318). IEEE
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Agent Based Simulation of a Payment System for Resilience Assessments
2017 (English)Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

We provide an agent based simulation model of the Swedish payment system. The simulation model is to be used to analyze the consequences of loss of functionality, or disruptions of the payment system for the food and fuel supply chains as well as the bank sector. We propose a gaming simulation approach, using a computer based role playing game, to explore the collaborative responses from the key actors, in order to evoke and facilitate collective resilience.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2017
Series
International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management IEEM, ISSN 2157-3611
Keywords
Agent based modeling, food retailing, fuel retailing, gaming simulation, payment system, resilience, supply chain.
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-31553 (URN)000428267800065 ()2-s2.0-85045259561 (Scopus ID)978-1-5386-0948-4 (ISBN)
Conference
2017 IEEE International Conference in Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, Singapore, 10-13 December, 2017
Projects
CCRAAAFFFTING
Funder
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
Available from: 2017-09-08 Created: 2017-09-08 Last updated: 2018-05-15Bibliographically approved
van Laere, J., Berggren, P., Gustavsson, P., Ibrahim, O., Johansson, B., Larsson, A., . . . Wiberg, C. (2017). Challenges for critical infrastructure resilience: cascading effects of payment system disruptions. In: Proceedings of the International ISCRAM Conference: . Paper presented at 14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, May 21-24, Albi, France (pp. 281-292). ISCRAM, 2017-May
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Challenges for critical infrastructure resilience: cascading effects of payment system disruptions
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2017 (English)In: Proceedings of the International ISCRAM Conference, ISCRAM, 2017, Vol. 2017-May, p. 281-292Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Critical infrastructures become more and more entangled and rely extensively on information technology. A deeper insight into the relationships between critical infrastructures enables the actors involved to more quickly understand the severity of information technology disruptions and to identify robust cross-functional mitigating actions. This study illustrates how and why disruptions in the payment system in Sweden could create cascading effects in other critical infrastructures with potentially severe consequences for many citizens, government institutions and companies. Data from document studies, interviews and workshops with field experts reveal seven challenges for collective cross-functional critical infrastructure resilience that need to be dealt with: 1)Shortage of food, fuel, cash, medicine; 2) Limited capacity of alternative payment solutions; 3) Cities are more vulnerable than the countryside; 4) Economically vulnerable groups in society are more severely affected; 5)Trust maintenance needs; 6) Crisis communication needs; 7) Fragmentation of responsibility for critical infrastructures across many actors.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ISCRAM, 2017
Keywords
Collective resilience, Critical infrastructures, Payment system, Resilience
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-30488 (URN)2-s2.0-85030706059 (Scopus ID)
Conference
14th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, May 21-24, Albi, France
Available from: 2017-03-23 Created: 2017-03-23 Last updated: 2017-12-04Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-0310-0018

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